Italian service centre sales of coil derivatives are not forecast to recover in April following a subdued March, Italian trade association Assofermet says in a market note seen by Kallanish.
Since April, the EU’s safeguard amendments have been enacted, which, in conjunction with both new and existing anti-dumping duties, are considered a considerable barrier to steel imports.
This will compel service centres to redirect a significant portion of their coil purchasing volumes towards EU producers, establishing the conditions for a rise in coil prices.
“However, it is important to ask whether the downstream sector, specifically the steel end-users, can sustain these elevated prices in light of the relatively weak demand, without compromising their competitiveness in international markets,” the association comments.
The ongoing trade conflict, especially between Europe and the United States, is generating significant apprehension. The potential impact could lead to a notable deceleration in the already complex recovery of steel consumption.
Confindustria, the association representing Italian industrialists, recently revised its economic growth projections for Italy, lowering the estimate to 0.4% for 2026 following 0.6% growth in 2025, Assofermet reveals.
The distribution sector remains under a cloud of uncertainty.
The performance of all steel product categories is predominantly negative, with the exception of seamless tubes. This product, however, accounts for a negligible portion of the sector’s sales volumes.
In March, sales of both flats and long products experienced a double-digit decline year-on-year.
However, welded tube demand has demonstrated resilience, with prices trending upward.
The tariffs implemented by the US administration are likely to negatively impact the investment strategies of end-use sectors, particularly in agriculture and mechanical engineering, Assofermet concludes.
In a recently released position paper on the enhanced protectionist policies by the US, Assofermet stated the trade war could potentially lead to significant market distortions for Europe. The execution of US policies may lead to an important redirection of global steel exports to the EU, potentially prompting it to consider countermeasures aimed at Asian countries.
Natalia Capra France
