Average steel prices in Germany and Europe could be lower next year than they have been in 2025 so far, according to calculations by MBI Infosource analyst Peter Fertig.
For hot rolled coil, his forecast model predicts a most likely price of €575/tonne ($676) ex-works in 2026, compared with an average price of €597 in 2025.
It must be kept in mind that prices this year saw a plateau in spring, then peaking at €650+ in mid-April, which has pulled the average value up above the €570+ being achieved currently in the market.
Given that players expect no major spike for the remainder of the year, and likely also not in 2026, the assumption of a lower average price in 2026 is not mathematically wrong. However, Fertig’s model does not exclude oscillations that could be wider even than those seen this year. The best-case scenario he sees is at €715/t, the worst case at €505.
Speaking at the MBI Stahltag in Frankfurt/Offenbach this week, Fertig noted that the eurozone’s purchasing manager index (PMI) has recovered a bit this year to above the critical index mark of 50.
However, Germany remains at below 50, mainly due to the burden of high energy costs. Overall order intake in the eurozone, moreover, remains weak, Fertig noted at the event attended by Kallanish. He added that mills need to keep their output low to be able to defend their prices.
For cold rolled coil, Fertig’s forecast model sees a base scenario of €660/t in 2026, with a best case scenario of €775 and a worst case of €595. For rebar, it predicts a base price of €600. The best and worst case scenarios are tighter than they are for coil, at €645 and €560, respectively. Similarly, wire rod might oscillate between €740 and €620, with €675 as the most likely price, according to the figures Fertig presented at the conference.
Christian Koehl Germany
