European stainless flat products prices are expected to continue rising, though the consolidation of recent increases is likely to take longer than anticipated.
Downstream consumption remains difficult, mirroring trends seen in the carbon flat steel sector, stainless steel mills and processors confirmed at this week’s Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart attended by Kallanish.
While European coil procurement is projected to increase as buyers shift towards local sourcing amid strong protectionist measures, stainless steel processors do not expect an equivalent rise in their sales volumes.
“The situation should improve during the first quarter as coil prices climb and we purchase more European material. Mills will benefit from the European Commission’s new protectionist policies. Margins may improve somewhat in the coming months, but consumption levels are expected to remain similar to those seen recently,” a German stainless steel processor commented.
European mills are raising prices, although some erratic commercial behaviour is still evident on the production side. “Nobody can afford to lose orders. We’ve had many difficult months with low or negative margins, so mills are also acting aggressively at times,” another processor said
All sources at the event agreed that a market recovery remains out of reach. More decisive price increases are expected to materialise during the first quarter. There is currently little appetite for imports, as Asian prices are not competitive with European levels.
Large buyers nevertheless continue to source from the import market. “We don’t have a choice,” one buyer explained. “We cannot accurately calculate CBAM costs, so we are buying almost blindly. Our projections may be wrong, and we’re taking risks knowing that CBAM payments will begin in 2027.”
A mill source reported that end-user demand is stable, neither falling nor improving. Stock levels remain elevated across Europe and are particularly high in slower markets such as Italy. The automotive sector continues to underperform, reflected in delayed purchasing activity, while investments in heavy industry are being delayed amid uncertainty.
According to market participants, it will take at least six months for the market to adjust to the new CBAM and safeguard regulations, with purchasing patterns expected to be restructured during this period. Certain low-cost finished steel imports remain outside protectionist measures, causing further pressure on the downstream sector, another source noted.
Buyers at Blechexpo widely agreed that flat steel prices have bottomed. European mills have announced coil price increases of approximately €30/tonne ($35) for December delivery and are evaluating further hikes of up to €50/t for January. While there are early signs of stabilisation, market participants at the event remained cautious. Confidence in mills’ ability to enforce higher prices is limited, given the ongoing uncertainty in downstream demand through Q4 and extending into Q1.
In northern Europe, mills’ stainless cold rolled coil quotes stand at around €2,240-2,250/t ($2,621-2,633/t) delivered. However, it is unclear if these have been accepted by the market. One source believes levels could reach €2,300/t by January.
Natalia Capra France
