European hot-rolled coil import prices shifted lower July 9, as sources pointed to increased competition with bearish domestic prices and the underlying risks of safeguards, poor demand and CBAM as limiting appetite for imported material.
The flat steel market sentiment persisted largely negative toward prices and demand characteristics as the fundamental drivers remained unchanged amid the summer lull, with an increasing number of sources slowing down operations ahead of holidays across the value chain.
A North European service-center source outlined further uncertainty surrounding price direction, referring to high competition between mills as some continue to push to fill out order books for the late summer period. “Some mills are still trying to get good order books, so are dropping offers, it is very competitive,” the source said. “We have heard mill offers at Eur540-550/mt [ex-works Ruhr], while others are offering at Eur580/mt, but now it is very wide.”
A mill source acknowledged the lower offers being floated in the market but remained steadfast that it was not universal across the market. “They must fill order books for the summer period, but it is kind of crazy going down to that level, even when it’s not busy, the conclusion must be that some mills are really struggling, but we are not going down to that level,” said the source, who also shared expectations of price recovery in September.
A south European source summarized the competitiveness of the current market conditions, saying that the market “is a fight, and demand is not enough for everybody.”
Discussing the import market, market participants remained focused on the upcoming CBAM legislation, split between its potential to offer support but the short-term risk of incurring additional safeguard duties, and the diminishing differential to the domestic HRC prices. Although some in the market suggested that imports could increase significantly before 2026 as many attempt to avoid mandatory carbon-reporting requirements associated with the CBAM legislation, others remained skeptical due to the current, unfavorable market conditions.
“CBAM will add pressure to the market, but imports are very difficult and risky now,” an Italian trader said.
The North European service-center source said, “It is difficult to put a figure on the price, and it could be a challenge to import material at a good level with the price difference [to domestic] not being huge.”
Platts assessed imported HRC at Eur470/mt CIF South Europe and Eur470/mt CIF Antwerp, down Eur5 and Eur10, respectively, on the day.
Meanwhile, domestic HRC in Northern Europe was assessed at Eur550/mt ex-works Ruhr, and in Southern Europe at Eur530/mt ex-works Italy, both stable day over day.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Charles Thompson | Devbrat Saha | Riley Waters
