European coil prices dropped in the week to 4 July due to low demand and pressure from competitive import offers. A majority of European steelmakers have been willing to provide substantial discounts in an attempt to fill their production lines for summer.
“Demand is weak, and the mills’ order books are short. And the main thing dragging the prices down is the desperation of the mils,” a trader said.
EU mills have also been avoiding blast furnace stoppages and significant crude steel production cuts as the number of the free CO2 emission allowances are granted each year based on the emissions in the past few years, some sources said. As a result, a stoppage now could result in higher production costs in the coming year as a steelmaker would have to purchase emission allowances.
McCloskey’s weekly marker for Northwest European domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) fell EUR20/t on the week to EUR550/t ex-works.
The region’s integrated mills have been offering and trading September delivery material at EUR540-570/t ex-works, with the majority of data heard within the EUR540-560/t ex-works range.
Some re-rollers were reported to be able to give even lower prices.
McCloskey’s weekly marker for South European domestic HRC declined by EUR10/t on the week at EUR530/t ex-works.
Italian mills have been offering HRC at EUR530-540/t ex-works, bids have been reported at EUR500-510/t ex-works and market sources estimated achievable prices at EUR510-520/t ex-works.
Reduced domestic supply in Italy failed to offset the downward pressure from import competition.
Acciaierie d’Italia (ADI) has remained inactive in the market. In late June, Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy (MIMIT), Adolfo Urso told trade unions that all ADI’s blast furnaces (BFs) were at risk of closure. Italian authorities have been negotiating the sale of the plant to several potential buyers, including Baku Steel and JSW Steel.
On 4 July, the MIMIT held a meeting regarding energy supply for the decarbonization of ADI. The next meeting will take place on 8 July.
Import offers moved down further triggered by a drop in prices from Indonesia. One of the country’s mills has lowered offers for bigger lots of HRC by EUR20/t from previous prices to EUR450/t CFR Italy. The material was offered with arrival in the fourth quarter to ensure customs clearance before the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) comes into force in 2026.
Currently HRC from Indonesia is exempt from the scope of safeguard measures in the EU, so Indonesia has been exporting the material freely without risks related to tariff-rated quotas.
The European Commission is planning to unveil proposals for alternative steel safeguard measures in September this year, to replace the current measures which are due to expire on 30 June 2026.
And market participants believe that Indonesia is trying to increase exports to the EU this year before any potential changes in safeguard or other trade measures come into force.
“Indonesia decided to start a farewell sale – they are offering and selling HRC at EUR450/t CFR for October delivery, so that material would arrive before CBAM, any possible changes in safeguard and potential anti-dumping start,” an Italian source said.
Import offers from Turkey have been reported at EUR485-490/t CFR Italy. The price includes anti-dumping duties.
Despite competitive import offers, European buyers have been showing less interest in material with longer lead times. This is due to the CBAM duties for material that will arrive next year. Market participants citied a lack of clarity on the CBAM policy, which continues to change, increased bureaucracy and potential duties of EUR50-200/t per tonne of steel, depending on CO2 content and the origin of the material.
Green steel
Activity in the green steel market remained slow due to the pessimistic mood in the traditional steel market.
Lack of standards for low-CO2 steel slowed down development of the green steel market, and distributors avoided putting green steel coil in stock. But buyers’ interest in back-to-back transactions for particular projects has been slowly growing.
Some market sources said that European authorities have been reviewing proposed solutions to define green steel and a decision is expected by the end of 2025.
Mills have been offering green HRC (CO2 content below 0.8 mt scopes 1-3) at premiums of EUR200/t. These prices are not considered realistic by buyers, instead estimating workable premiums at EUR50-100/t.
McCloskey’s reduced carbon marker, calculated in reference to all green HRC premium indications collected in the week prior to publication, stands at EUR64.39/t on 4 July.
European Coil Prices 4 July
| Term | Marker | Change | |
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 550 | -20 |
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 655 | -10 |
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 670 | -20 |
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 530 | -10 |
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 490 | -20 |
| Weekly Green steel | |||
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 0.8t) | 75 | 0 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 625 | -20 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 0.5t) | 75 | 0 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 625 | -20 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 64.39 | 3.2 |
