European coil and green steel round-up: Northwest European coil rises despite seasonal lull

Firmer mill offers saw Northwest European coil prices jump in the week to 8 August following the market’s latest round of offer price increases, with trading back at levels not seen since early June. 

McCloskey’s sources across the steel supply chain reported deals for hot-rolled coil (HRC) at EUR580-590/t ex-works or delivered Northwest Europe toward the end of the week – a bullish signal for a domestic market that has been languishing under compounding pressures of low demand and aggressive import penetration.

While the ongoing holiday period means that substantive volumes are unlikely to shift for a couple of weeks, transactions at higher price levels will reinforce mill attempts to bring prices above red lines through the latter half of 2025, and in preparation for September restocking.

In southern Europe, where import pressures are traditionally higher, the market failed to see the same gains as in the North, seeing only slight increases to transactional levels last reported between EUR530-540/t ex-works. Buyers were said to be absent from the market, enjoying holidays without giving HRC offers at EUR 570-580/t ex-works or delivered much interest.

Imports were reportedly available at offer prices of EUR500/t CIF Italy from Indonesia; at EUR520/t CFR from India; EUR530-540/t CFR from Algeria; or duty-inclusive from Turkey at EUR530-540/t CFR.

Producers and distributors similarly perceived high stock levels across the European market, though some suggested that improving end-consumer sales for delivery in Q1 2026 would require more substantive restocking, or at least wind down inventories at a pace more amenable to increases in market liquidity going forward.

Any improvement in demand should operate in tandem with declining import attractiveness as the market expresses more bullish sentiments for the rest of the year. Import lead times are encroaching on duty-liabilities under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and the rumoured early replacement of the EU’s steel safeguard measures also introduces too high a degree of risk for many of Europe’s steel importers.

That said, while the rumour of an early replacement to Europe’s steel trade defenses is rightfully premised upon domestic steel association Eurofer’s campaigning on the matter, nothing has been confirmed or persuasively indicated by European authorities, leading some to doubt the practicalities.

“Mid-2026 – when the old measures expire – is more realistic for the safeguard replacements,” said a mill source. “I don’t really see how the Commission has enough time to get everything sorted for January.”

Regardless, the narrative alone will somewhat deter importers from taking speculative opportunities on international steel sourcing for as long as it survives, potentially especially true of larger trading companies hit by new quota clearance burdens when the UK revised its own steel safeguards with near-imminent effect earlier in June.

Green Steel 

Silence pervades the green steel market amid the summer lull, with McCloskey’s reduced carbon marker – calculated on the basis of all surveyed green HRC premia – now standing at its lowest level since April, at EUR52.97/t.

Premium indications from distribution remain range-bound between EUR70-100/t, though sources considered prices at the higher of said range as pretty optimistic in the current market given the presently subdued nature of green steel demand.

Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel

Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel

opisnet.com