Trading was seasonally slow across Europe with market sources expecting to see little change in the coming weeks due to the vacation season.
In the week to July 25, major European mills pushed up their offer prices for October-delivery HRC to €590 per tonne ex-works or delivered, but buyers remained largely skeptical about the chances of those higher offers being sealed in deals, citing poor demand.
Supplier sources, meanwhile, reported an uptick in inquiries for HRC on Tuesday, with delivery timelines extending into the fourth quarter of 2025 and into the first quarter of 2026.
Despite the flat prices on Tuesday, supplier sources said they had “satisfactory” order books and were hoping to achieve even higher prices for fourth-quarter delivery HRC on restocking activity, a lack of imports and tighter domestic supplies.
According to one supplier source, the potential rebound in HRC prices will be driven by the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is expected to increase the cost of imported coil, along with the implementation of new trade measures to replace the current safeguard measures. As a result, they said, many buyers will be looking to secure European HRC for late 2025 and early 2026.
This trend was echoed by several small- and medium-sized buyers in the region, who told Fastmarkets they had stopped ordering overseas coil because of concerns over the impact of the CBAM and existing safeguard measures.
“Mills are counting on the trade measures and lower coil availability to support the uptrend, but the reality is that the demand is still falling short of supply and consumption is not growing,” a stockholder in Germany told Fastmarkets.
Buyer ideas about the tradable level came in at about €550-560 per tonne ex-works.
But one buyer source said a bid at €550 per tonne ex-works had been rejected by a mill in the Benelux region.
“Buyers keep saying they will not pay anything above €550-560 ex-works, but there are no actual deals [being done] at such levels now,” a mill source said.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €558.33 per tonne on Tuesday, down slightly by €0.67 per tonne from €559.00 per tonne on Monday.
The Northern European index was up by €3.33 per tonne week on week, but was down by €7.30 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €525.83 per tonne on Thursday, up by just €1.45 per tonne from €524.38 per tonne on Wednesday.
The index was up by €5.41 per tonne week on week, but down by €42.87 per tonne month on month.
Sources said, that following price-rise announcements in the week to July 25, there was an uptick in inquiries because buyers were trying to “collect orders” at the previous prices around €520-530 per tonne ex-works.
At the same time, there was a brief surge in activity in the Italian coil market, with some buyers rushing to secure volumes at previous price levels of €520–530 per tonne ex-works.
But those earlier prices are no longer available, a supplier source said “because they reflect market conditions from two weeks ago.”
New offers, came in at €540-550 per tonne ex-works, with some suppliers still having only limited availability of September delivery HRC.
For HRC tonnages of around 1,000 tonnes, one seller estimated the tradable price at €530 per tonne ex-works.
It still remains to be seen if higher offers will be traded in September, sources said.
Import offers have been broadly steady recently, but there were some signs of higher offers amid cautious optimism in China.
In the week to July 25, a small cargo of Turkish HRC was sold into Italy at €495 per tonne CFR, including import duty. And on July 29, new offers were reported at around €510 per tonne CFR, including the duty.
But sources said that Turkish suppliers were currently more focused on domestic sales.
An HRC cargo from India was heard sold into Italy at €490 per tonne CFR, sources said, and one market participant reported that HRC from Algeria had changed hands in Italy at €515 per tonne CFR to Italy.
No new offers were reported from Indonesia, however, despite it regularly being the most aggressive overseas supplier to Europe.
“A lot of HRC from Indonesia that was booked at €450-460 per tonne CFR is still in the pipeline,” a buyer in Italy told Fastmarkets.
