European HRC prices largely flat amid mixed expectations on direction of prices

European hot-rolled coil prices remained largely flat on Wednesday October 9, despite mill attempts to sell at higher levels, sources told Fastmarkets.

Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €546.00 ($599.47) per tonne on Wednesday, up by just €0.62 per tonne from €545.38 per tonne on Tuesday.

The index was up by €1.62 per tonne week on week, but down by €34.00 per tonne month on month.

November/December delivery HRC was on offer in Northern Europe at €560-570 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets understands.

And German producers have undertaken more flexible approach, according to sources.

“If you want to book material now, you can get €540-550 per tonne ex-works. But offers for [the first quarter] of 2025 are at €560-570 per tonne ex-works,” a European buyer source told Fastmarkets.

And buyer estimates of the workable level came in at €530-550 per tonne ex-works.

But expectations about the future direction of prices were mixed and the buyer source said there was a good chance of a price rebound in the near term.

“The price decline has stopped. Consumers want to do some restoking, but they want to buy at the price levels from two weeks ago – at around €520 per tonne ex-works. But those prices are no longer available,” the buyer said, adding that prices would stabilize and could even increase in the coming weeks – ahead of the international sheet metal exhibition in Hanover, Germany on October 22-25.

The buyer said the uptrend in prices could continue after, but it would be difficult to predict how things would develop in the mid term.

A second buyer source told Fastmarkets that the current import offers of HRC from Asia were completely unworkable for the European market.

Asian HRC was heard offered at €550-560 per tonne CFR Antwerp, the second buyer said, but the comparatively high price level, combined with the trade risks and the long lead times made that level of offer uncompetitive.

The source added that any need for HRC in Europe, would therefore be covered by domestic production and that would also support a price rebound.

But a third buyer source was skeptical about the sustainability of any potential price rebound during the Hanover event – especially considering the persistent low demand from the main steel-consuming sectors in Europe – and implied that prices were likely to fall after that.

“[Steelmakers] just want to receive higher prices during the [sheet metal] exhibition in Hanover,” the buyer said. “But if I were to buy, I would wait… for the exhibition to be over.”

In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €540.33 per tonne on Wednesday, up by just €0.33 per tonne from €540.00 per tonne on Tuesday.

The Italian index was up by €5.33 per tonne week on week, but down by €38.00 per tonne month on month.

HRC in Italy was on offer at €550-560 per tonne delivered, which nets back at €540-550 per tonne ex-works, sources said, with some deals reported at €530-535 per tonne ex-works.

Buyer estimates of the workable level in Italy came in at €530-550 per tonne ex-works.

Import offers of Turkish HRC to Italy were heard at €580-590 per tonne CFR, including the EU anti-dumping duty, while offers of HRC from India to Italy were heard at €585 per tonne CFR and material from other Asian suppliers was on offer at €550-560 per tonne CFR.

Buyers said the workable level for Asia-origin coil was closer to €520 per tonne CFR, but no such offers were available.

Published by: Darina Kahramanova

fastmarkets.com