European hot-rolled coil prices held steady in a quiet market on Tuesday July 15, with a continuing lack of clarity about the direction of prices after the summer slowdown, sources told Fastmarkets.
Some buyers made inquiries about October-November deliveries and said they expect to see a price rebound after the summer stoppages.
“Prices have reached ‘rock bottom’ [and] the market is likely to stabilize at the current level before the summer stoppages in August,” a German buyer said,
“European mills will try to increase [HRC] prices after summer break, counting because the [carbon border adjustment mechanism] (CBAM) will interrupt imports in the first quarter of 2026,” the buyer added.
Other buyers, however, maintained a “wait-and-see” stance and said they expect the downtrend to continue, given the insufficient consumption and the influx of low-priced imports in recent months.
In northern Europe, offers were reported to Fastmarkets at €560-570 per tonne delivered (€550-560 per tonne ex-works) in Germany and at €560-570 per tonne ex-works in the Benelux area.
Buyer estimates of the tradable level remained at €530-560 per tonne ex-works, depending on tonnage.
Supplier sources estimated achievable price for big tonnages [2,000 tonnes and more] at €540-550 per tonne ex-works and at €560-580 per tonne ex-works for smaller lots.
Some suppliers, however, argued, that levels of€540-550 per tonne ex-works were “special deals” and therefore “outliers,” and not widely available in the market.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €547.50 per tonne on Tuesday, up by just €1.25 per tonne from €546.25 per tonne seven days ago.
The Northern European index was also up by €2.50 per tonne week on week, but was down by €46.50 per tonne month on month.
No major progress has been reported in terms of long-term contract negotiations with end users for the second half of the year.
“From what we heard, the [original equipment manufacturers] (OEMs) have not yet widely sealed their second-half 2025 contracts yet,” a source said.
An automotive OEM in Europe told Fastmarkets they were seeking a €50-100 per tonne reduction from the level of the first-half contracts because the gap between the long-term deals and spot prices has been “unrealistically wide.”
Several sources said that contracts with OEMs from the automotive sector for the first half of 2025 were done at €650-700 per tonne.
A second automotive OEM said an achievable price for second-half 2025 contracts was €620-640 per tonne.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €523.96 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €1.46 per tonne from €522.50 per tonne on July 14.
The index was up by €3.96 per tonne week on week, but down by €56.04 per tonne month on month.
Trading in Italy was also quiet on Tuesday, Fastmarkets understands.
The most recent offers came in at about €530-550 per tonne ex-works, while the tradable level was said to be €520-525 per tonne ex-works, depending on the tonnage.
One deal was reported by a supplier at €530 per tonne ex-works.
Overall, sources agreed that Italian prices were either close to or had already hit rock bottom.
“Some suppliers have already withdrawn their offers form the market,” a buyer in Italy said. “There are no higher offers on the table yet, but it looks like the downtrend has stopped.”
Some market participants recently reported some stability in overseas coil prices, following the previous week’s rebound in Chinese HRC prices.
August-shipment HRC from Turkey was on offer to Italy at €480-500 per tonne CFR, including anti-dumping duty.
Offers were also heard from Indonesia to Italy, at €450 per tonne CFR, and to Antwerp in Belgium at €460-470 per tonne CFR.
And one source reported an offer of HRC from Algeria to Italy at €495 per tonne CFR.
