European steel demand should recover from record lows in the coming periods, but the extent of rebound remains unclear, participants concluded at Kallanish Europe Steel Markets in Amsterdam on Tuesday.
Although EU industrial activity should recover, the impact on steel demand and role of energy costs are difficult to predict, said Eurofer director of market analysis and economic studies Alessandro Sciamarelli. He forecasted EU GDP growth of 0.9% this year, and 1.4% in 2026. But he also cautioned that “no real improvement in steel demand is in sight, due to US tariff-related turmoil”.
A bit more optimism was expressed by Tata Steel Nederland director markets, pricing & services Ronald de Haan, who sees real demand kicking in and new orders revving up. A recovery should be felt by the fourth quarter of 2025 or Q1 2026, he added.
Regarding the scenario of multiple threats like trade restrictions and inflation, he stated that “we used to have economic cycles, but these do not exist any more”. The same applies to the steel industry restocking cycle. “The market is so uncertain, that everyone is stocking down, and that affects pricing,” he noted.
He also stressed that demand will not recover evenly across the EU. “It is completely different in Poland than in Germany, which depends much on exporting machinery,” he said. Against the high level of energy costs, “the one thing you can do is cut costs – in R&D, automation, human resources – and that might get you in a negative spiral”.
“Energy is one of our biggest concerns,” commented ArcelorMittal Europe head of climate change – governmental affairs Stéphane Tondo. The problem has been realised at the top of the European Commission, he noted, but the clerical staff still possess an old mindset that hinders progress. “The head is fast, but the feet are slow,” he concluded.
Christian Koehl Germany
