Prices for most flat and long products should soften going forward, by 1-3% until the end of October, according to German analyst Peter Fertig of MBI Research.
From its current level, hot rolled coil will drop by 3%, Fertig says based on MBI Research’s quantitative forecast model in his latest report.
Kallanish learns this is somewhat more pessimistic than his previous report earlier in September, which assumed a drop of 1%. This also applies to plate, which was seen stable in the previous report, but now is expected to drop by 3%.
A positive trend is seen for cold-rolled and galvanized coil, but the potential for an increase has also diminished, from +3% to now +1%. As for the current prices in Germany, he notes €575/t ex-works ($675) for HRC, €657/t for CRC, and €680/t for hot-dip galvanized coil. In competition with the EU mills, he cites prices for Chinese material at $482/t for HRC, and $540/t for CRC, both FOB China.
For long products, Fertig predicts a drop by 3% for rebar and wire rod, and by 1% for merchant bar. For current domestic prices for long products, he suggests €599/t for rebar, down from €612/t previously and €671/t for wire rod, down from €684. This compares with Chinese export prices of $441/t for rebar, and $472/t for wire rod.
Christian Koehl Germany
