Higher July production pressures Italian long prices

Italian crude steel production increased in July following a decline in the previous month, industry association Federacciai says in a note obtained by Kallanish.

According to long product sellers, the July increase in production came at the expense of prices. Rebar saw significant declines, while attempts by producers to raise other longs such as merchant bar and wire rod prices were largely unsuccessful.

Rebar values are now gradually recovering from the July downturn, but sources warn that September production data may again show higher output, leading to greater availability and downward pressure on prices by mid-September.

One source notes that, despite widespread talk of mill stoppages in July, only a limited number of long product producers actually reduced output.

Federacciai says July production increased by 2.2% on-year to just over 1.7 million tonnes. Output in the first seven months of the year also increased, by 2.8% on-year, to 12.8mt.

“The breakdown of hot rolled production shows … a diverging trend between the two product families [flats and longs],” Federacciai states. Flat steel production decreased by 1.2% to 732,000t in July but increased by 6.7% to 5.6mt in January-July. Longs output, meanwhile, increased both in July and in the first seven months. Production increased by as much as 11.9% in July to 1.1mt and rose 2% to 7.7mt in January-July.

Italian output has declined over recent years, falling by 5% on-year in 2024 to 19.9mt, by 2.5% on-year in 2023 to 21mt, and by 11.5% y-o-y in 2022 to 21.6mt.

Natalia Capra France

kallanish.com