HRC prices in Europe hold steady; market direction for Q1 remains unclear

Prices for European hot-rolled coil remained broadly flat on Monday November 18 amid sluggish trading, with market participants uncertain about market direction for the first quarter of 2025.

Despite an increased number of inquiries for potential purchases of HRC, trading remained limited, Fastmarkets heard.

Mills in Northern Europe continued targeting €600-620 ($632-653) per tonne ex-works for first-quarter-delivery coil.

No deals were reported at these levels however.

December-delivery material was still available in the market, according to some sources.

One buyer source told Fastmarkets that in theory, December-delivery coil should be sold out now, but in practice, some volumes from stocks could still be traded.

Buyer estimations for the tradeable market level were at €550-570 per tonne ex-works.

Some small volumes of December-delivery HRC were booked at €570 per tonne ex-works, industry sources told Fastmarkets.

Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €563.33 per tonne on Monday, up by €0.83 per tonne from €562.50 per tonne on Friday November 15.

The index was up by €5.00 per tonne week on week and by €10.20 per tonne month on month.

But buyers were not convinced about the positive development of the market for the first quarter of 2025.

According to the buyer source, prices would not increase significantly in the first quarter of next year and more positive developments could be expected only in the second quarter.

Mills in Northern Europe hoped that limited imports would support prices, with buyers relying mainly on local production.

But the lack of imports would become more visible in the market closer to the end of the first quarter of 2025, Fastmarkets reported previously.

There is still a lot of steel in the pipeline and at least a few months will be necessary to clear it, according to industry sources.

As well, low demand from the main steel-consuming sectors remained a major concern.

“[For the market to improve], we will need more positive news from the automotive and construction sectors,” a second buyer source told Fastmarkets, adding that for now the situation seemed more complicated.

The second buyer agreed that more positive developments could be expected in the second quarter of 2025.

Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy at €557.50 per tonne, up by €1.50 per tonne from €556.00 per tonne on Monday.

The Italian index was up by €5.50 per tonne week on week and by €6.25 per tonne month on month.

December-delivery material was no longer available in the Italian market, industry sources reported.

HRC with lead times in the first quarter of 2025 was on offer from local suppliers at €600 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €590 per tonne ex-works.

A third buyer source told Fastmarkets that transactions in Italy were limited.

Buyer estimations of the workable market level were at €550-570 per tonne ex-works.

Import offers remained uncompetitive in the European market, Fastmarkets heard.

Aside from the trade risk, the current exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro made imports more expensive.

Asia-origin HRC was on offer at €610-620 per tonne CFR Italy, with these levels considered by buyers to be “completely not workable.”

Published by: Darina Kahramanova

fastmarkets.com