European steel hot-rolled coil prices continued to stabilize after several weeks of a persistent downtrend, with mill sources hopeful that regulatory pressures will support a rebound later in the year – indeed some have already tried increases, sources told Fastmarkets on Thursday July 17.
HRC prices in Europe have been declining since early May due to a lack of demand, import pressure and because of an aggressive sales push by some suppliers in an attempt to “match import prices” to fill their order books.
But domestic prices have started stabilizing in the past few days, with the majority of industry sources that Fastmarkets spoke to saying they see further price drops as highly unlikely.
“Prices are now stabilizing near lows, but it looks like producers are eyeing increases for the fourth quarter. Moods are changing,” a buyer in Northern Europe said.
A supplier source reported an increase in the number of inquiries they had received for HRC with lead times in the fourth quarter and even the first quarter of 2026.
“This [potential rebound in HRC prices] is linked to CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) coming into force and higher costs of imported coil as a result. We see that many buyers are looking to secure European [HRC] for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026,” a supplier in the region said.
This was echoed by several small and medium-sized buyers in the region, who told Fastmarkets that they had stopped ordering overseas coil amid CBAM and safeguards concerns.
In Northern Europe, offers from integrated mills were heard at €560-570 ($652-663) per tonne ex-works or delivered, depending on the supplier.
One supplier in the Benelux area increased offers by €10 per tonne, to €590 per tonne CPT, Fastmarkets heard.
Buyer sources estimated tradable prices at €540-550 per tonne ex-works, while most suppliers indicated €550 per tonne ex-works as the lowest price possible.
Mill sources pointed out that discounts were possible for HRC with shorter lead times – August-September, while for the material with delivery later in the year price “would be higher,” a second mill source said
Italian coil with September lead times was offered to Germany at €580 per tonne delivered.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €550.63 per tonne on Thursday, up slightly by €3.57 per tonne from €547.06 per tonne on Wednesday.
The Northern European index was up by €6.05 per tonne week on week, but was down by €43.50 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €525.83 per tonne on Thursday, up by just €1.45 per tonne from €524.38 per tonne on Wednesday.
The index was up by €5.41 per tonne week on week, but down by €42.87 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, several large-tonnage deals were reported at €520-525 per tonne ex-works.
Offers were reported at €530-550 per tonne ex-works form local suppliers.
Sources agreed that HRC prices in Italy have also “hit rock bottom”, with both local and overseas suppliers rejecting lower bids.
“Italian buyers booked large volumes of HRC from Asian mills lately, but new lower bids were rejected by [import] suppliers, and buyers started to look at domestic material more,” a source in Italy said.
Local mills were not increasing prices so far, with sources not expecting any significant price movements until the end of August or early September.
In the secondary market, 4mm gauge HR sheet was offered at €630-650 per tonne CPT, with some deals reported as low as €620-630 per tonne CPT.
HRC offers from Indonesia to Italy were heard around €450 per tonne CFR, and at €480-490 per tonne CFR from India.
Offers from Turkey remained at €480-500 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty.
