Italian coil service centres reported minimal imports of coil from Asia in the first quarter, while the latest negotiations indicate that Turkey and Indonesia are positioned as primary suppliers to the European market.
As of 1 January, a significant volume of material was successfully cleared through customs, which had previously been accumulating at ports in Italy.
According to Tommaso Sandrini, president of Italian coil service centre San Polo Lamiere, understanding the available EU quota levels from Turkey is crucial, as is the decision the European Commission will make regarding Indonesia. He cautions that Indonesia may be integrated into the safeguard system within the next year and a half.
Due to protectionism, distributors will focus their coil procurement more on the EU domestic market this year, Sandrini forecasts. Coil import volumes are projected to decline, with a shift towards new sourcing regions.
Historical suppliers like Japan, Vietnam, and Egypt will see reduced volumes, while growth is anticipated from new Southeast Asian suppliers in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. India will maintain consistent export volumes to Europe, while the presence of Turkey will increase.
India is currently absent from the Italian customs clearing statistics, as there have been no coil sales from that origin since the initiation of the EU’s hot rolled coil anti-dumping investigation. The country however presents a viable procurement option and is anticipated to come back in the near future. Indian offers re-emerged in the EU market for hot and cold rolled coil during the Made in Steel event last week.
In the last fortnight, however, various Asian suppliers have adopted a cautious stance, seeking to gain clarity on the available EU quotas while hesitating over the significant disparity between European and import prices.
There is a spread of approximately €160/tonne ($180) between the most recent offers from European suppliers and Asia-origin imports, Kallanish notes.
Sandrini anticipates a stable pricing environment for coil in Europe, albeit with a minor downward adjustment. At present, there are no signs suggesting a possible increase in prices in the coming months. Current market conditions indicate a lack of demand recovery, sufficient supply, and the absence of external influences that could potentially disrupt supply in Europe.
“We have digested the news of the safeguard review, which for a few weeks produced expectations of a price recovery, but it has now faded and we are returning to the price levels that we saw in December,” Sandrini comments.
Natalia Capra France
