Sweeping US tariffs affecting a great range of commodities for dozens of trading partners are expected to take effect Aug. 1. Nearly every country worldwide faces a range of “reciprocal,” or country-specific, tariffs that President Donald Trump issued April 2 as part of his “Liberation Day” trade announcement.
The administration set an initial three-month pause on implementing the tariffs, which ended July 9, when Trump pushed back the deadline to Aug. 1 to allow for further negotiations. Since July 9, Trump has delivered over two dozen trade letters to countries, threatening new tariffs to replace the original rates. He also announced frameworks for trade deals with several other countries, though there have been no official White House documents providing details.
Trump has also threatened new product-specific tariffs, all with the same possible Aug. 1 deadline.
With the clock ticking for when customs officials must know what rates to charge importers, the Trump administration has not provided any specifics that would codify new tariff rates included in the trade letters or set the stage for how proposed trade deals may look in practice.
The administration has met tariff deadlines with delays, modifications and enforcing new duties as promised. Here are a few scenarios for how US tariffs and trade deals could take shape when the Aug. 1 deadline arrives.
Scenario 1: No White House action
If Trump does not issue any executive orders ahead of Aug. 1, the initial per-country tariff rates announced in April take effect. In this scenario, there will be no executive orders codifying the updated rates Trump sent in trade letters. This means tariffs would revert to the initial proposed numbers in the absence of a new executive order.
These country-specific tariffs have a lengthy list of exemptions, including many metals like nickel and copper, but notably not including iron.
None of the trade deal “frameworks” Trump has announced with other countries would take effect — meaning negotiated tariff rates would revert to those proposed on April 2. Japan and the EU, which expect a 15% tariff from deals they struck, would instead face 24% and 20% tariffs, respectively.
This scenario looks unlikely, as Trump issued a 50% tariff for Brazil on July 30.
Trump also announced a 50% tariff on copper on July 30, butother product-specific tariffs, like critical minerals, would also be void without an official White House document.
Additionally, Trump’s 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, which has remained in place since April 2 and excludes most energy products, would be replaced by the original executive order’s country-specific rates.
Scenario 2: Executive order issues new country-specific rates
The White House could issue a flurry of executive orders — or one singular executive order — that would make the updated country-specific rates included in Trump’s trade deal letters official. This would likely include specific rates for Canada and Mexico, which were not included in the original list of countries targeted, but received trade deal letters in July.
These executive orders could also announce new rates for countries that did not receive trade letters.
The orders could come in a similar form as the April 2 order, in which Trump issued the tariffs using the authority from the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law that provides a president with the authority to regulate economic transactions in response to a declared national emergency.
In this scenario, a new executive order would replace the previous order and make the updated tariff rates law. Tariff rates in a new executive order could apply to one, all, or a combination of US trading partners: The nearly 200 countries included in the first order, the over two dozen countries that received trade letters with new rates or the countries that negotiated frameworks.
Scenario 2a: Making trade deals official
Since extending the country-specific tariff deadline to Aug. 1, Trump announced frameworks for trade deals with the EU, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia. These frameworks include new tariff rates as well as additional commitments for investment and purchases of US products.
No official text has been released and an order that may create new country-specific rates could potentially not include these deals — or it could.
Trump announced a US-UK trade deal on May 8. It took until June 16 for the White House to release an executive order providing the specifics of the agreement.
Trump had promised 90 deals in 90 days, but has only made one official agreement with the UK and delayed a timeline for negotiations to Aug. 12 with China.
Trump also could issue separate executive orders for each of these proposed deals ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline. This would replace any country-specific rates referenced in earlier orders.
If no trade deal-related executive orders are issued, Trump may include the negotiated country-specific tariff rates in a broad order announcing new tariff rates for all trading partners. But this would omit specific provisions from each agreement, such as commitments to invest in US manufacturing, raising questions over the likelihood of these investments.
Scenario 2b: A new baseline tariff
Trump earlier this week hinted at increasing baseline tariffs in the range of 15% to 20% on countries that have not reached a trade agreement. It is likely this would replace the universal 10% tariff countries currently face on exports to the US.
A new baseline rate could come in the form of an executive order and would provide countries that have not reached a trade agreement with additional time for negotiations.
Scenario 3: Another delay
Trump could punt the Aug. 1 deadline to implement the tariffs as hedid on July 9. This would block country-specific rates from taking effect and gives countries more time to reach a deal with the US.
White House officials have indicated that this is not likely.
“The August first deadline is the August first deadline — it stands strong, and will not be extended. A big day for America!!!” Trump wrote in all-caps in a July 30 Truth Social post.
Bonus tariffs: Product-specific tariffs
Trump has recently announced several product-specific tariffs that could also take effect on Aug. 1.
This includes increased rates on imports of copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips.
Similar to the negotiated trade deal frameworks, there has been no official information from the White House on these product-specific tariffs or what exemptions, if any, may be included.
Trump could issue a separate executive order ahead of Aug. 1 codifying these new tariff rates. If he doesn’t, it’s unclear when they may take effect.
In the wings: Court cases continue
A US federal court in May struck down Trump’s country-specific tariffs for exceeding presidential authority, but the administration appealed the ruling. The court issued a stay that allowed the tariffs to remain in effect while the appeal is under consideration.
Now, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit is set to meet on July 31 — one day ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline — to hear oral arguments over whether Trump can justify implementing the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
The lawsuit challenges Trump’s use of the act to justify the tariffs, arguing only Congress has the authority to levy tariffs.
A ruling from the appeals court is unlikely on July 31 and the case is expected to eventually reachthe Supreme Court.
