Day: 1 June 2020

Sheffield – MEPS International verzeichnete in diesem Monat in Polen einen allgemeinen Preisverfall bei Stahlprodukten. Die Rabatte aus den Mühlen haben jedoch wenig dazu beigetragen, die Kaufaktivität anzukurbeln. Viele Kunden verzögern Einkäufe, da sie über ausreichende Lagerbestände verfügen, um ihren aktuellen Bedarf zu decken.

Stahlhersteller arbeiten immer noch mit geringer Kapazitätsauslastung, wobei weniger Vorbestellungen für Lieferungen im Juni und Juli aufgegeben werden. Die Vorlaufzeiten für warmgewalzte Coils liegen derzeit bei etwa vier Wochen, für kaltgewalzte und feuerverzinkte Coils bei knapp sechs Wochen.

Mitte Mai zeigten sich Anzeichen für eine Verbesserung der polnischen Stahlnachfrage. Positiv ist die Wiedereröffnung der Automobilwerke, es wird jedoch erwartet, dass der Betrieb unter dem normalen Niveau beginnt. Die Nachfrage in der Bauindustrie bleibt relativ gut, der Bergbausektor zeigt Anzeichen einer Wiederbelebung. Der Weißwarenmarkt erlebt dagegen einen Abschwung.

Unternehmen, die mit hochspezifizierten Stahlsorten handeln, weisen eine stabile Nachfrage auf. Unternehmen, die Vertragskunden beliefern, berichten von relativ unberührten Vorgängen und normalen Verkäufen im Mai.

Viele Stahlhändler hoffen, dass sich die Marktaktivität in den kommenden Monaten beschleunigen wird, da nun die Sperrbeschränkungen aufgehoben werden. Trotz des vorläufigen Optimismus verstärken sich allerdings finanzielle Bedenken. Zahlreiche Versicherer überprüfen die Kreditlimits, die sie Unternehmen gewähren. Die Kreditlinien werden reduziert und die Versicherungskosten steigen. Dies hat das Potenzial, die Stahleinkaufsaktivität kurzfristig zu drücken.

Stahllager in der Tschechischen Republik halten sich bei Bestellungen zurück

In der Tschechischen Republik gingen die Stahlpreise im Mai aufgrund der geringeren Nachfrage und der wachsenden Verfügbarkeit von günstigem importiertem Material zurück. Die tschechischen Stahlhersteller produzieren weit unter der maximalen Kapazität und zögern, Preise weiter zu senken. Trotzdem konnten viele Kunden in der letzten Zeit Rabatte von Stahllieferanten aushandeln.

Die tschechischen Stahllager melden überdurchschnittliche Lagerbestände, diese gelten jedoch nicht als übermäßig. Viele Kunden verzögern derzeit ihre Bestellungen.

Obwohl die Produktion auf niedrigem Niveau liegen wird, haben Unternehmen im Automobilbereich entweder wiedereröffnet oder sind dabei, neu zu starten. In der Bauindustrie finden nach wie vor Aktivitäten statt und Arbeiten an bestehenden Projekten werden fortgesetzt.

Wie im benachbarten Polen sind die tschechischen Stahlmarktteilnehmer optimistisch, dass sich die Geschäftsbedingungen in naher Zukunft verbessern werden.

Über MEPS

MEPS International Ltd. ist ein führendes Stahlmarktanalyseunternehmen, das sich auf unabhängig untersuchte globale Stahlpreise, -indizes und -prognosen spezialisiert hat. Das Unternehmen wurde 1979 von Peter Fish gegründet und begann als Beratungsunternehmen mit dem Namen Management, Engineering and Production Services in Sheffield – daher auch der Name MEPS. In den späten 1980er Jahren wurde das Unternehmen in MEPS Europe Ltd. umbenannt, im Juli 2001 wurde daraus MEPS International Ltd., um die weltweite Abdeckung seiner Stahlpreisforschung widerzuspiegeln.

Der MEPS International Steel Review ist eine wichtige monatliche Veröffentlichung, die professionelle Analysen und Einblicke in die weltweiten Kohlenstoffstahlpreise bietet.

Quelle: MEPS International Ltd.  / Vorschaubild: fotolia

According to the updated Commission estimates, the coronavirus pandemic will result in a decrease in global trade between 10%-16% in 2020.

For the EU27, the predicted reduction is expected to be between 9% and 15% for exports, and 11% and 14% for imports from non-EU countries (goods and services combined).

In absolute terms, using the latest available statistics, this amounts to a reduction in extra-EU27 exports between €282 and €470 billion and a decrease in extra-EU27 imports between €313 and €398 billion (goods and services combined).

The increasing spread of the virus has prompted many countries to temporarily shut down businesses, and restrict travel and the movement of people. These measures will lead to sharp contractions in the level of economic output, household spending, investment and international trade.

While there is a wealth of forecasts on GDP growth in 2020, there is a limited range of work done on trade projections for 2020, in particular for EU trade. The analysis outlined in the note published today is one of the few attempts at predicting the impact of the COVID19 outbreak on trade flows. It follows a first assessment by the Chief Trade Economist from April. It also compares results with other existing trade forecasts from international organisations.

More information

Polish distributor Drozapol’s consolidated revenue rose 7% on-year in the first quarter to PLN 30.6 million ($7.7m) and net loss narrowed 62% to PLN 470,000.

The beginning of Q1 saw increasing prices, margins and optimism stemming from higher sales revenue. Although the firm is yet to feel the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on its business, it says possible risks include worker absenteeism and disruption to imports.

“The lack of budget funds for new investments, significantly reduced funds of cities and municipalities, the cautiousness of Polish companies in the field of investment, and slowdown in the development of companies and investments in many areas of the economy is and will be particularly noticeable in the context of budget changes and expenses related to the Covid-19 pandemic,” Drozapol observes.

The firm previously said the pandemic could halt the positive trend seen since the start of 2020 in Poland’s construction industry, which would in turn hamper its performance (see Kallanish passim). It could also significantly hamper Drozapol’s project to increase construction reinforcement exports. The firm’s 2019 revenue fell -20% on-year to PLN 123.4m and it sunk to a PLN 4.4m loss versus a PLN 220,000 profit a year earlier.

European steel consumption could start a slow recovery in June, Antonio Marcegaglia, CEO of Marcegaglia Group, the world’s largest welded tube producer and one of the world’s largest steel re-rollers, told S&P Global Platts Friday.

“It is likely that we will see a restart in the demand triggered by restoking and sustained by the European mills cuts and EU imports duties politics” Antonio Marcegaglia said.

“As production is getting rebalanced with demand, I think European prices are close to the bottom. Positive signs are coming from the recovery of the raw materials prices and from the Chinese steel prices increases. So I expect a small technical rebound also in the European prices,” he said, stressing pre-coronavirus levels were a long way off.

In Europe, HRC prices were near a four-year low. The Platts HRC index was Eur413.50/mt ($460/mt) ex-works Ruhr, and Marcegaglia saw a gradual rebound of Eur20-30/mt shortly.

Talking about Marcegaglia Group, the CEO said year started well but volumes dropped from March due to the coronavirus outbreak.

In line with most other steel companies, from March saw a difficult second quarter and a better end to the year, leading to a fall in 2020 turnover of around 15% to Eur4.5 billion.

Full-year volume, meanwhile, was expected to fall around 10%-15% to 5.2 million mt of steel products. Including Palini and Bertoli, the 380,000 mt plate producer acquired in November from Evraz, volume will be down about 10%.

“We managed to integrate Palini and Bertoli well with the rest of the company. Due to COVID-19, the company stopped production for three weeks. Overall as a group, we produced 10%-12% less volume in March year on year and down by 30%-35% in April year on year, after a positive January and February,” Antonio Marcegaglia said.

M&A possibilities

Antonio Marcegaglia said the company is still interested in buying special steel producer Terni AST.

ThyssenKrupp, the owner of Terni, said on a May 18 earnings call said that Terni was back on the market. ThyssenKrupp also said it was seeking partners for its steel unit again since the slump in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic will further increase the surplus capacity in the market.

In 2018 following a restructuring of ThyssenKrupp Materials, Terni became one of the company’s core assets and was withdrawn from sale.

Marcegaglia, one of Terni’s main stainless customers, would be a good fit in terms of commercial and sales synergies, industries sources have said.

Marcegaglia produces 500,000 mt of stainless steel products a year with a third of the stainless coils it buys from Terni. If Marcegaglia buys Terni, the company will not only have a primary productions but will increase its stainless market production.

Antonio Marcegaglia said the company was on track overall to build its own power plants in Ravenna (20 MW) and Gazoldo (30 MW) to increase its economic sustainability, stabilizing and optimizing the production costs by using energy from renewable sources. Although the process has been slowed by COVID-19, the plants were expected to become operational at the beginning of 2022.

— Annalisa Villa

The Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) is calling upon US Senate members for the passing of shovel-ready infrastructure investment legislature, Kallanish reports.

Expecting bleak results from US and Canadian employment reports in May, the MSCI “… believes one way to ensure a quicker rebound is for local and national, and state and provincial, leaders to focus on shovel-ready infrastructure,” the organisation says in an e-mail update.

The MSCI goes on to add that infrastructure investment is paramount in minimising the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the industrial metals supply chain.

“American infrastructure in particular has been crumbling for years. It is time to rebuild,” says ceo Bob Weidner.

In January, Democratic members of the US House of Representative introduced a five-year, $760 billion infrastructure plan that garnered support from organisations such as the United Steelworkers labour union.

US President Donald Trump has called for infrastructure spending, as well.

“With interest rates for the United States being at ZERO, [sic] this is the time to do our decades long-awaited Infrastructure Bill… It should be VERY BIG & BOLD, Two Trillion Dollars, [sic] and be focused solely on jobs and rebuilding the once great infrastructure of our Country!” President Trump writes on Twitter.

European steel association Eurofer has filed a complaint with the European Commission requesting a countervailing duty (CVD) investigation against hot-rolled coil imports from Turkey, S&P Global Platts learned Friday from Veysel Yayan, general secretary of Turkish Steel Producers’ Association (TCUD).

In the complaint, Eurofer claimed that Turkish flat steel producers are benefiting from government incentives like Eximbank programs, tax and investment supports and electricity, natural gas and water cost discounts.

Veysel Yayan told Platts Friday that as Eurofer’s claims are all false and groundless, he anticipates the EC will not open any investigations against Turkish HRC. “Turkish mills are obeying all WTO rules and aren’t receiving any incentives from the government,” he said.

The EC recently launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of certain hot-rolled flat products from Turkey following a request by Eurofer for the action, as Platts has reported. As a reply to this investigation, Turkey informed the World Trade Organization on May 25 that custom duties could be imposed on steel imports from the EU, in response to the EU’s move for additional measures against imports of Turkish steel.

Turkey is planning to impose duties ranging from 9% to 17% on some flat-rolled products, non-alloy bars and angles from the EU region, under HS codes: 7208, 7209, 7210, 7211, 7212, 7214, 7215 and 7216, in an effort to balance trade between the parties.

According to Turkish Steel Exporters’ Union (CIB) data, domestic mills’ steel exports to the EU fell 30% in the first quarter of 2020, while European mills’ steel exports to Turkey doubled in the period.

— Cenk Can

The European Union has filed an official document to the World Trade Organization (WTO) to outline its proposed more restrictive changes to the existing steel safeguard measures. New rules should be applied as from the beginning of July until the end of June 2021.

“The economic shock produced by the Covid-19 pandemic represents a fundamental and exceptional change in circumstances substantially affecting the functioning of the steel market. The Commission finds it necessary therefore to consider its effects when shaping the adjustments under the review,” the commission explains in a document seen by Kallanish.

Firstly, the Commission is set to make all country specific quotas managed quarterly, in order to avoid overcrowding of imports. In addition, important limitations will be applied to the possibility of using residual quotas during the last quarter by countries that already have a country-specific allocation.

In addition to the above general changes, there is also a plan for new rules to be introduced for key products. 

HRC quotas, for example, will be moved from general to country specific, further limiting the possibility of large importers taking major advantage of the allocations. With the new changes Russian suppliers will have the largest share of HRC import quotas, despite being subject to AD duties, followed by Turkey and India.

For stainless steel HRC, on the other hand, specific quotas will be turned into general, eliminating the country-specific origin rule and applying a global quarterly calculation. Finally, the Commission will split the quotas for large welded tubes into a global allocation for material used in engineering projects and a country-specific quotas system for material not used in engineering.

The review of the quotas system proposed does not go as far as limiting the quotas allocation by -75% as originally requested by Eurofer. It still confirms however the introduction of new layers of limitations to additionally control imports. “The proposed adjustments should deter any undue stockpiling behaviour in the very early phases of the recovery that could empty the market in an opportunistic manner, to the detriment of exporters and the EU steel industry,” the document adds.

Russian steelmaker Severstal is ready to participate in any review of the anti-dumping duty on its hot-rolled coil exports to the EU, and would be able to prove it does not resort to unfair trade practices or dumping if such a review were initiated, it said Friday.

Responding to questions from S&P Global Platts following a report this week that European steel industry body Eurofer was pushing for a review by the European Commission, Severstal said it had not received notice from any official source and did not have any insider knowledge.

A spokesman for Eurofer said: “We can offer no comment on this issue, nor confirm its veracity.”

“The original article quoted an external source, not Eurofer,” he added.

Severstal confirmed it currently pays a Eur17.60/mt duty on its HRC exports to the EU. The duty has been in place since October 2017 and is due to expire around October 2022.

Severstal received a substantially lower European import duty than that imposed on HRC from other Russian flat-rolled steel producers MMK (Eur96.50/mt) and NLMK (Eur53.30/mt).

Severstal sent 797,000 mt of steel products to the EU in January-March 2020, around 29% of its total sales in the quarter and up by 5% from Q4 2019. In the same quarter last year, exports to Europe contributed a quarter of company’s revenue, Severstal said.

A German distributor said: “I would welcome a higher duty on Severstal imports. They have been an accelerator for lower prices. Since AD was imposed, they have caused continuous disruption.”

“The duty should be at the same level as for the other Russian steelmakers and then those extreme price swings would be limited more,” he added.

Latest Russian import offers were heard at Eur370-375/mt CIF Antwerp, duty paid.

Russia was the second biggest HRC import source for European buyers in March after Turkey at 136,719 mt, seeing a 23% year-on-year increase, according to Eurofer. March saw EU’s total HRC imports down 40% year on year to 452,502 mt.

Although any review would likely take some time, sentiment towards market protectionism is rising in the EU given the collapse in local steel demand, and this may lead to additional export barriers, which would be similarly bad for other Russian steelmakers, according to analysts from Moscow-based BCS Investment Group.

— Ekaterina Bouckley, Laura Varriale

The European Union has transitioned its hot-rolled coil quota to a country-by-country and quarterly basis, it said in a notification to the World Trade Organization obtained by Argus Media.

The overall HRC quota volume is not radically reduced by the move, but some integral exporters – including Turkey – will take a hit.

Turkey can ship 1.36 mn t duty-free into the European Union between 1 July 2020 and 30 June 2021; 344,890t in the first quarter (July-September), 344,890t in the second quarter, 337,393t in the third quarter, and 341,141t in the last quarter.

In July 2017-June 2018, Turkey sold 2.1mn t into the EU, which increased to 3.31mn int July 2018-June 2019, both substantially above its new quota level. Between July 2019 and March this year, it sold 1.47mn t into the EU – also more than its new quota.

Indian HRC volume will also be reduced. It can sell 667,978t into the July 2020-June 2021 period; 168,367t each over the first quarter and second quarter, 164,707t in the third quarter, and 166,537 in the final April-June 2021 period. In July 2017-June 2018, India sold 967,596t into the EU, and 793,235t in July 2018-June 2019; both above its new quota level.

The HRC other countries quota has also fallen substantially, with every quarter’s volume now around 1mn t or slightly below, compared to every quarter being above 2mn t in the current year of the safeguard, which ends this June. Those regions that exhaust their own volumes can still compete for the residual quota in the final quarter of the period, but they can be no more than 30pc of the import market.

The Commission also intends to introduce a 30pc cap for the 4b hot-dip galvanised residual quota, which had been solely taken up by China in the first year.

Residual quotas will be amended somewhat for certain products. For rebar, access to the residual quotas in the fourth quarter will be limited to volumes exceeding the average quota used by smaller supplying countries during the four quarters; this will reduce the amount of material Turkey can sell into the EU.

By Colin Richardson