European HRC prices stay rangebound amid split sentiment, domestic strength
“There’s not a lot of positivity. Holidays in Europe and some shorter weeks ahead won’t help build momentum,” one trader source said. “Market confidence is lacking at the moment.”
The market remains uncertain about price direction for the rest of Q2, with a weak Q3 anticipated as more holidays approach.
“The market’s quiet following the Easter break, and people can’t agree on where prices are going in Q2 — some think they’ll hold or rise a bit, others expect a drop,” a distributor source said. “Imports might push prices down later if demand stays weak.”
Some buyer-side market participants remained skeptical of the higher mill offers heard in recent weeks, citing that with the weaker liquidity seen in the post-Easter break, there were expectations that offers could drop.
Despite this, others in the market have remained confident that price levels would remain supported, especially as import volumes into the EU were lower than expected, with some market participants saying that the safeguard quotas had larger-than-anticipated unallocated units. As of the day, net remaining EU safeguard quotas for HRC stood at 71.35%.
“Many people were uncertain and didn’t know what measures would be introduced, so they didn’t place many orders,” one service center source said, referring to subdued imports from quota-affected countries.
On the demand side, some optimism remains. Sources cited early signs of recovery in agriculture and construction, even as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to weigh on sentiment.
Mills are standing firm on their offers. They expect a near-term demand boost as buyers with low inventories may be forced back into the market. This is reflected in the lack of significant discounts and lengthening lead times.
“Mills in Europe are well covered up to July so I see delivered times are going up,” said a mill source.
From the import side, a trader source expressed optimism with the strengthening of the Euro, despite the HRC CIF Italy price falling Eur5 on the day.
Platts assessed HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur655/mt EXW Ruhr April 24 and in Southern Europe at Eur625/mt EXW Italy, both stable day over day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northern Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Antwerp, stable day over day and in Southern Europe at Eur530/mt CIF Italy, down Eur5 day over day.
UK HRC buyers hold back amid thin demand, steady prices
Participants talked of minimal spot activity following the Easter holidays, with some suggesting the industry was still experiencing a “post-holiday hangover.” While offers from European mills were largely unchanged, hovering around GBP550/mt DDP West Midlands, buyers’ tradable values were heard at GBP530-535/mt.
“The market is just flat,” one trader said. “Prices seem to have bottomed out, but there’s no sign of the usual bounce-back you’d expect after that.”
Import activity also remained subdued, with sources citing a lack of urgency to commit, given ongoing trade policy uncertainty and thin demand.
“People are just watching and waiting — no one wants to move until there’s more clarity, especially with the TRA decisions still pending,” the trader noted.
The weaker dollar has made some non-EU import offers more attractive, but concerns around quotas and safeguard measures were still dampening appetite.
Platts assessed UK HRC at GBP535/mt DDP West Midlands, up GBP5 week over week.
WV Stahl struggles to foresee German production stabilisation
German steel federation WV Stahl points out that the stabilisation of national steel production is “not yet in sight” after it recorded in March the third month in a row of double-digit decline.
German crude steel production fell by over 10% on-year in March to 3.1 million tonnes.
First-quarter production of 8.5mt saw a year-on-year decline of 12.5%, Kallanish reads in WV Stahl’s monthly production report.
The decline appears somewhat more pronounced on the oxygen converter route, where Q1 output fell by more than 15% y-o-y, totalling 5.8mt. Electric arc furnace mills, despite some stoppages reported recently, lost only 6.4%, with output at 2.74mt of crude steel.
Christian Koehl Germany
French government eyes limiting China-origin imports: spokesperson
The French government, along with other European nations, will advocate for heightened protectionist measures against steel imports originating from China, government spokesperson Sophie Primas said on Thursday.
Primas told French news channel Cnews that certain initial quota measures have been implemented; however, the French government will take a leading role in advocating for European steel interests.
This is in reaction to ArcelorMittal’s declaration that it will eliminate 600 jobs across seven northern French sites. Primas indicated that overcapacity in Chinese steel production is a contributing factor to the current crisis.
French economy minister Marc Ferracci is scheduled to meet with ArcelorMittal to assess the severity of the situation and gain insights into the steelmaker’s decision to pause the decarbonisation plan at its Dunkirk site. “It is imperative to accelerate the European process for steel protection,” Primas said.
Primas did not specify which Chinese-origin steel products she was referring to. The EU imported around 3.4 million tonnes of chapter 72 iron ore and steel from China in 2024, over 1mt of which was coated flat steel, for which China is already assigned EU safeguard quotas, Kallanish notes.
ArcelorMittal France’s plan to reduce its workforce by 600 in the north of the country will affect seven locations, including Dunkirk, Florange, Basse-Indre, Mardyck, Mouzon, Desvres and Montataire.
“As the European steel industry is facing a crisis marked by a 20% drop in demand over five years and a sharp rise in imports, which now account for 30% of the market, ArcelorMittal France North must continuously review its efficiency and competitiveness,” ArcelorMittal says in a note (see separate article).
Natalia Capra France
Poland transition awaits energy, climate policy overoptimistic: conference
ArcelorMittal Poland (AMP) is ready to undergo its transition to electric arc furnaces but requires the guarantee of competitive electricity prices to make the required investments, says AMP chief executive Wojciech Koszuta.
AMP plans to transition away from the blast furnace production route at its Dabrowa Gornicza steelworks to EAF steelmaking in stages, with long products the first to be produced via EAF, with no implications for product quality.
Thereafter, certain technological adaptation will be required to transition flats production to EAFs to produce the required grades. However, the experience and knowhow will be used from ArcelorMittal’s Sestao plant in Spain, which already produces a full range of flats via EAF, according to Koszuta.
The right conditions are however required for this to be successful. In his opening remarks during a session at Thursday’s European Economic Congress in Katowice attended by Kallanish, the AMP ceo stressed the importance of policy to ensure industrial competitiveness. He emphasised it is important “we do not create a few of these strategies every year and do not change them every year. We have to implement them.”
Progressive MEP Jens Geier said the role of industry needs to be defended in order to preserve jobs, the value chain, and input material for the energy transition but also defence. “We have China as a player and competitor and an unreliable US government; we need to rely on ourselves to defend our economic model,” he noted.
The European Commission’s Steel and Metals Action Plan is “better than I expected,” added Geier, who is also a member of the European Parliament’s budget committee, and industry, research and energy committee. It is a holistic approach that shows the Commission is “not thinking in silos” and is explicit on international trade, as seen by the safeguard mechanism adjustments.
As someone who promoted climate regulation, Geier admitted: “We were much too optimistic when it came to the implementation [of climate change regulation] because it takes much longer than expected … Now is the time to do anything to defend the industry because it’s instrumental for the European [welfare].”
Germany is focusing on the transition from ironmaking in BFs to direct reduction plants based on gas, but this will require huge sums of money, Geier continued. “We need a drastic change in EU state aid rules,” he asserted, pointing to the Draghi and Letta reports that show EU rules are “totally outdated”, applying to the globalised market of 30 years ago. Today, all governments are supporting their industries.
Carbon capture storage and utilisation (CCUS) has meanwhile been accepted at European Commission level and is “absolutely necessary”, he added.
Koszuta responded saying steel imports need to be restricted to ensure European industry remains competitive. While the first step of AMP’s decarbonisation will ensure it has flexibility to respond to electricity prices, the second will be to move away from BFs and use first natural gas and then hydrogen to produce DRI.
CBAM and trade defence instruments will undoubtedly help maintain EU industrial competitiveness, but national energy policies lie outside of the direct control of Brussels, Geier concluded.
Adam Smith Poland
Longs prices in Romania stable amid weak post-Easter demand
Following the Easter break in Romania, the market has remained quiet, with offers stable over the past week. Although some firms are still on holiday and the market is predicted to see more precise figures in the coming week, some market participants feel that prices may fall next week due to the current sluggishness in demand as well as the significant decreases in global scrap prices. Meanwhile, according to sources, the sole rebar producer is going to stop production in the coming days due to scheduled repair works over the next two months.
Currently, rebar pricing from the sole domestic mill is stable at roughly €590-605/mt ex-works. Similarly, local Romanian rebar spot prices have remained stable, at €610-620/mt ex-warehouse from last week.
A similar stability has been observed in the wire rod segment, with retail prices quoted stable week on week at €580-595/mt ex-warehouse.
In the import market, meanwhile, there has been a similar lack of activity since the Easter weekend. As a result, most offers have remained unchanged, with no new purchases concluded since last week. According to sources, ex-Bulgaria rebar offers have remained unchanged since last week, at around €620-640/mt CPT. In addition, ex-Egypt offers for rebar and wire rod have remained stable week on week at €550-555/mt CPT and €560-565/mt CPT, respectively. However, due to considerable drops in scrap prices, Turkish rebar offers to Romania at a €1 = $1.14 exchange rate and with freight costs of €25-30/mt have dropped by €10-20/mt to €500-510/mt CFR since last week. Furthermore, according to reports, Romanian purchasers closed the last deal with Turkey in the second part of April, for around 40,000 mt of rebar at $540-550/mt FOB.
European longs prices unchanged, market remains sluggish
No significant movement has been reported in the European longs market this week. Rebar and wire rod local prices in Italy have remained unchanged due to the Easter, Liberation Day and Labor Day holidays and the situation is more or less the same in other European markets.
In Italy, local rebar prices are still at around €340/mt ex-works base (€605/mt ex-works including regular extras), unchanged week on week. “There will be no major changes until week 19”, an Italian source commented. As far as wire rod is concerned, local prices for drawing quality remained unchanged week on week at €635-650/mt delivered, while mesh grade quality still stands at €605-620/mt delivered, also unchanged week on week.
Long steel product demand was not brilliant in the Italian and European markets in March and April, and so several major mills decided to reduce their long steel production capacities. In March, Italian long steel production amounted to 1.2 million mt. At the same time, however, it is expected that producers will stock up as the summer season approaches, in view of the stoppages in July and August. Since this will likely cause a reduction in the product quantities available in the market, one could point to a possible price increase.
As for rebar, on the other hand, the drop in energy and scrap prices would suggest a possible decline. In spite of this, the market needs to consider many variable factors, which make forecasts very difficult.
At the time of publication, there were no changes reported in rebar export prices from Greece or from Spain to the United Kingdom, which last week stood at €595-600/mt FOB and €580-585/mt FOB, respectively.
Import offers of rebar and wire rod from Turkey have decreased to €500-510/mt CFR and €510-520/mt CFR, respectively, down by €15-20/mt compared to the previous week, following a sharp drop in Turkey’s import scrap market. Price changes are calculated based on the European Central Bank’s exchange rate €1 = $0.88 (April 23).
German crude steel output down 12.5 percent in Q1
In March this year, Germany’s crude steel output went down by 11.3 percent year on year to 3.11 million metric tons, according to the information provided by the German Steel Federation Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl (WV Stahl). In the first quarter of this year, crude steel production in Germany declined by 12.5 percent year on year to 8.50 million mt.
In the given month, Germany’s pig iron output amounted to 1.90 million mt, down by 15.0 percent, while in the January-March period it decreased by 15.7 percent to 5.32 million mt, both on year-on-year basis.
In March, the country’s hot rolled steel output fell by 7.3 percent year on year to 2.79 million mt, while dropping by 10.9 percent to 7.64 million mt in the first three months this year, both compared to the same periods of the previous year.
Northern European long steel market stable despite falling scrap prices; static German economy
As a result, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europe, was €650-680 ($736-770) per tonne on Wednesday, stable week on week.
In Germany, prices were reported at €670-680 per tonne delivered while, in the Netherlands and other parts of Northern Europe, lower prices of €650-670 per tonne were reported.
Further production cuts and improved sentiment in the North contributed to stability in prices. More than half of the rebar steelmaking capacities in Northern Europe have been idled to rebalance supply-demand dynamics.
“Availability has dropped considerably,” a producer source told Fastmarkets. “European steel mills have reduced production to contain costs driven by previously high raw material prices and weak demand. In addition, non-EU Eastern European countries have gone absent from the market due to geopolitical tensions, while the lack of stock from British Steel has further contributed to low availability across Europe. Increased safeguard regulations also have reduced demand volume and appetite.”
Scrap costs have dropped since mid-April due to slow consumption of finished steel in the domestic rebar market, combined with the continuing uncertainty around US tariff rates.
As a result, customers remained in wait-and-see mode.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of its daily index for steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix), North Europe origin, cfr Turkey, was $318.14 per tonne per tonne on Wednesday, down week on week from $334.54 per tonne.
The weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality), domestic, delivered Northern Europe, was €620-645 per tonne, stable week on week.
Offers in the region were reported at €620-645 per tonne.
Germany lowers economic forecast
On Tuesday, news agency Reuters reported that the German government had lowered its economic forecast for 2025 to zero growth, downgrading from 0.3% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) as forecast in January.
Geopolitical tensions, global market chaos because of the uncertainty in US tariffs, and weak domestic demand were factors which contributed to this.
“The German economy is once again facing major challenges due to the unpredictable trade policy of the US,” German economy minister Robert Habeck said.
“Given the German economy’s close integration into global supply chains,” he added, “and our high level of foreign trade openness, the new US protectionism could have significant direct and indirect effects on our economic growth.”
Published by: India-Inés Levy
European steel HRC market muted, holidays add to low activity
In Northern Europe, trading was quiet, with no changes in offer prices or in the workable estimates for HRC trades.
“The market is almost dead because of holidays across Europe. There will probably be no change until the Made in Steel event [in Milan, May 6-8],” one buy-side source said.
Suppliers in the Benelux region and Germany kept their HRC offers with June-July lead times around €670-700 ($759-793) per tonne ex-works, but these were considered somewhat elevated.
“So far, prices are firm, but it’s not clear if the target offers can be achieved in deals because real demand remains low. And the uptrend we had recently was mainly due to trade measures and limited imports,” a buy-side source said.
In general, market sources estimated workable prices within the range of €640-660 per tonne ex-works.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €650.00 per tonne on April 24, down by €2.00 per tonne from €652.00 per tonne on April 23.
The market in Southern Europe was also quiet due to holidays. Offers varied within the range of €630-640 per tonne ex-works, with some business done within the range of €620-630 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, inched up day on day by €2.08 per tonne on April 24, to €627.50 per tonne.
The import trade was quiet with offers rising slightly on a reported improvement in prices in the Chinese market, but interest was limited.
Indian HRC was available at €580 per tonne CFR, compared with €565 per tonne CFR heard earlier this week. Meanwhile, Turkish material was offered at €580-600 per tonne CFR versus €560-570 per tonne CFR earlier this week.
“I guess India will show less interest [in exports] in the coming weeks,” one trader said, “due to the domestic market growing.”
Published by: Vlada Novokreshchenova
