Rebar prices in most of Europe drop amid insufficient demand
Rebar prices in Europe demonstrated negative dynamics during the week to Wednesday July 11 amid unsupportive demand, while those for wire rod were largely unchanged.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, exw Italy was €520-560 ($601-647) per tonne on Wednesday, down from €550-580 per tonne on July 4.
In the north of the country 8-16 mm bars were offered within the range of €520-560 per tonne ex-works, according to various sources including mills, traders and cut and bend mils.
A trading source said that some mills may accept even the level of €510 per tonne ex-works in case of large orders. But buying activity was largely limited to strictly necessary volumes.
A cut and bend source mentioned that prices in Italy are unlikely to keep falling further amid strengthening prices in the scrap segment and expectations of higher energy costs in the summer.
With lower offers in the domestic market, Italian material was also available at discounted prices for customers in Northern Europe.
This week, a source from Austria reported that Italian rebar was offered at €615 per tonne delivered versus €630 per tonne a week ago.
After the assessment was published, information came to light that the level of €605 per tonne delivered was achieved in negotiations.
German rebar was available at €630 per tonne delivered in Austria, down by €10 per tonne week on week.
In Denmark, similar material was available at €650 per tonne delivered.
In the Netherlands, workable prices for rebar dropped to €635 per tonne delivered from €670 per tonne delivered heard in the previous weeks.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europe was €615-650 per tonne on Wednesday, down from €630-670 per tonne on June 4.
The only region where rebar has seen some upward correction was Spain. Offers in the country surged to €615-620 per tonne delivered, which was reflected in Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Spain.
The assessment moved up to €615-620 per tonne delivered on Wednesday from €600 per tonne delivered on June 4.
Bearish mood persists in European steel HRC market
The mood in the European market for steel hot-rolled coil remained negative on Monday June 16, with trade sources reporting a lack of real demand, with approaching holidays and expectations of a further downward price correction given as key reasons for the lack of restocking activity.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €593.75 ($687.54) per tonne on June 16, down slightly by €0.25 per tonne from €595.00 per tonne last Friday.
A number of market sources reported material being available in the region at prices in the range €590-600 per tonne ex-works, but with workable prices estimated at the lower end of the range.
Nevertheless, €550-570 per tonne was still heard in bids or characterized as “wishful thinking by customers.”
There was also a rumor heard about one of the region’s major producers selling a cargo at €550 per tonne ex-works, but this could not be confirmed at the time of publication.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €580.83 per tonne on Monday, up day on day by only €0.83 per tonne.
Workable prices for material from an integrated supplier varied within the range of €580-585 per tonne ex-works. According to the market participants, the mill was not willing to accept any lower price due to the limited supply from another producer, although a re-roller was ready to provide slight price concessions.
Nevertheless, trading activity remained muted in the southern country with prices expected to show negative dynamics.
“End users and stockists are very scared that prices might fall further, so everybody is trying to clear their stocks before vacation [period] starts,” a trading source told Fastmarkets on June 16.
Another trader source reported offers of Indonesia-origin coil at €480 per tonne early this week, versus €490-500 per tonne CFR late last week.
In Northern Europe, Indonesian coils were heard available at €530-540 per tonne CFR, and there were some reports of Indian material offered at prices as low as €520 per tonne CFR.
EU mechanical engineering to contract again in 2025
The EU mechanical engineering sector is forecast to face another recession in 2025, with output expected to shrink by 1.7% on-year, followed by only a modest recovery of 1.1% in 2026 – though this outlook remains uncertain, according to Eurofer.
Following modest growth of 1.1% in 2023, the sector experienced a sharper-than-expected decline of 5.2% in 2024. This marked a reversal from the strong post-pandemic rebound, which saw growth of 11.7% in 2021 and 5.2% in 2022, after a 10% contraction in 2020.
Mechanical engineering output declined for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q4 2024, falling 4.7%, after seeing a 4.6% drop in the previous quarter. Although the sector had exceeded pre-2019 output levels during its recovery, its momentum has been increasingly undermined by the prolonged impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war, escalating global geopolitical tensions, and a weakening industrial outlook. These factors triggered a downturn in late 2023 that is expected to persist through 2025, Kallanish notes.
Elina Virchenko Bulgaria
US tariffs increase manufacturing costs, help Mexico: Coface
French credit insurance group Coface expects prices in the US to rise as a result of US President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on European steel and derivatives.
In the medium term, increasing domestic metal prices could affect manufacturing margins, especially within the US automotive industry. Ironically, this rise in US tariffs may end up helping Mexico in the long run. The majority of Mexico’s automotive exports to the US are duty-free since they comply with United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement regulations. However, because of the distortion in manufacturing costs compared with the US, now made worse by the recent new tariffs, Mexico’s automobile production is anticipated to become even more competitive.
“Washington continues to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum, squeezing the margins of American manufacturing companies without any certainty of revitalising its metals industry.” Coface analyst Simon Lacoume notes in a report obtained by Kallanish.
The announcement increasing tariffs on EU steel and aluminium occurred around the time of the launch of a strategic partnership between US Steel and Japan’s Nippon Steel. The Japanese conglomerate is set to allocate $11 billion towards manufacturing facilities in the US over the next 14 months (see Kallanish 16 June). This notable investment is partially a reaction to the initial 25% tariffs on steel implemented by the US government in March. From the perspective of the US, this investment fulfils multiple objectives: It aims to decrease reliance on imports whilst simultaneously bolstering the domestic metallurgical sector.
The tariffs implemented in 2018 however did not succeed in fostering sustainable growth in output or employment within US industries. A study conducted by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve indicates that the rise in input costs attributed to these tariffs is associated with the loss of 75,000 jobs within the domestic manufacturing sector.
This year’s imposition of tariffs has resulted in an increase in steel and aluminium prices within the US market. The S&P midwest premium index experienced an increase of 20% in January for steel. The long-term effects of tariffs on employment and productivity are not yet apparent. The increase in domestic steel prices has significantly impacted US manufacturing firms since 2018, the analysts note. The expected fluctuations in prices and rising costs are likely to create additional challenges for the downstream segments of the value chain.
Natalia Capra France
Tata Steel seeks greener output with recycling push
India’s Tata Steel is targeting up to 15 million tonnes/year of steel production through the recycling route within the next 10-15 years, as part of its wider decarbonisation roadmap, ceo T V Narendran confirmed in a recent press interaction, notes Kallanish.
The steel major, which produced 30.9mt in FY25 across its global operations, plans to scale up capacity in India to 40mt/y by 2030.
A significant share of this growth will increasingly rely on low-carbon technologies, particularly scrap-based electric arc furnaces.
“We’ve already set up a recycling plant near Delhi and a 0.75mt Ludhiana facility is on track for commissioning by end-FY26,” Narendran noted. “Our long-term goal is to shift a sizable portion of our production to circular and greener steelmaking.”
In Europe, Tata Steel has accelerated its transition away from the blast furnace route. At Port Talbot plant in the UK, the company is replacing blast furnaces with EAFs, a major step toward net-zero.
“We have shut the blast furnaces in the UK and are building an electric arc furnace. In the Netherlands, we are in talks with the government to do the same,” Narendran said.
The IJmuiden works in the Netherlands, which produced 6.75mt of liquid steel in FY25, will also eventually transition to greener technologies. Tata expects all European blast furnaces to be phased out by 2035.
With 26mt capacity in India and 1.7mt in Thailand, Tata Steel’s global push reflects a growing shift in the industry toward circularity, scrap utilisation, and lower emissions.
Aditi Tiwari India
Euro area industrial output down 2.4 percent in April from March
In April this year, seasonally-adjusted industrial production decreased by 2.4 percent in the euro area and by 1.8 percent in the EU-27, as compared with March.
Industrial production in March had increased by 2.4 percent in the euro area and by 0.6 percent in the EU. In April this year, compared with April 2024, industrial production went up by 0.8 in the euro area and by 0.6 percent in the EU-27 countries. These figures are released by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Union.
As compared to March, in April the production of durable goods decreased by 0.2 percent in the euro area and by 0.3 percent in the EU-27, while the production of capital goods went down by 1.1 percent in the euro area and 0.7 percent in the EU-27, on month-on-month basis. In the given month, output of non-durable consumer goods went down by three percent in the euro area and by two percent in the EU-27, both month on month. In April, the production of intermediate goods fell by 0.7 percent in the euro area and by 0.4 percent in the EU-27 countries, while the production of energy fell by 1.6 percent in the euro area and by 0.4 percent in the EU-27, all month on month.
Among the member states, in April the highest month-on-month increases were registered in Denmark (3.5%), Luxembourg (3.2%), and Croatia and Sweden (both 2.5%) while the biggest decreases were recorded in Ireland (15.2%), Malta (6.2%) and Lithuania (3.0%).
Compared to the same month of 2024, in April this year production of capital goods decreased by 0.6 percent in the euro area and increased by 0.2 percent in the EU-27 countries. In the same month, production of durable consumer goods remained stable in the euro area and went down by 0.3 percent in the EU-27, while production of intermediate goods fell by one percent in both areas, all year on year. In the given month, production of non-durable consumer goods increased by 6.1 percent in the euro area and by 4.1 percent in the EU-27, while production of energy decreased by 0.1 percent in the euro area and 0.6 percent in the EU-27.
In April, the highest year-on-year increases were registered in Ireland (18.4%), Finland (10.2%) and Croatia (6.5%), while Denmark (11.6%), Bulgaria (10.5%) and Slovenia (4.6%) registered the sharpest decreases.
EUROFER: EU auto output forecast for 2025 turns to decline
According to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2025-2026/Q2 2025 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), in the fourth quarter of 2024 automotive output in the EU dropped by 11.8 percent year on year, slightly slower compared to the 15.6 percent decrease in the previous quarter.
Since the global economic outlook remains highly unpredictable for car manufacturers, new car registrations in the EU recorded a 1.9 decline year on year in the first quarter of 2025. Demand is projected to remain weak until the macroeconomic picture and consumer disposable income substantially improve.
The sector experienced a stronger contraction in output in 2024 at 9.7 percent, compared to the previous estimates at 8.7 percent. Forecast for 2025 has been revised as 2.6 percent decline, compared to the earlier expectations of 2.1 percent growth, as a result of increasing global uncertainty and very low confidence.