EU coil prices rise, further increase expected in September
European coil prices inched higher in the week to 1 August amid the holiday season, with market sources seeing the market as primed for further price increases post-summer.
Northwest European hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers appear to have centralised around EUR 580-590/t ex-works or delivered, though market participants on both sides deny that trading activity is yet possible at said levels.
A North European steelmaker reported bids rejected at EUR560/t ex-works, seeing realistic price levels at a EUR570/t minimum, but some sources still see prices as low as EUR540/t ex-works as achievable from integrated mills with gaps remaining in their August-September production schedules. Deals for October delivery were indeed considered workable at a EUR560-570/t ex-works or delivered minimum. The lowest offer reported was at EUR560/t delivered in Benelux, the equivalent of EUR550/t ex-works.
Liquidity in the market remains thin as the summer season enters full swing: downstream cold-rolled and hot-dip galvanized coils are exhibiting similarly stable pricing, offered between EUR660-690/t ex-works or delivered, and considered tradable by most sources between EUR650-670/t ex-works – though some still perceive opportunity to secure prices as low as EUR630/t for cold-rolled and EUR 645/t ex-works for hot-dip galvanized, respectively.
In Italy, domestic prices were reportedly slightly higher on week – with offers at similar levels to North Europe – but actual trading prices lagged, cited at EUR530-550/t ex-works by sources.
Domestic producer Acciaierie d’Italia (ADI) made progress on its revival at the end of last week, as the Italian government renewed environmental authorization for the site, allowing the restart of idled furnaces to continue production at ADI. As per the terms of this latest authorization, steel production at ADI will be capped to 6 mt. ADI is currently operating one furnace, with pig iron capacity of 2.3 mt.
In the international market, import prices have increased, potentially supporting bullish sentiment for the near-term: Turkish material is available at EUR535-540/t CFR Italy, anti-dumping duty-inclusive, alongside Algerian steel at EUR530-540/t CFR.
Both origins were viewed as ‘safe’ by buyers due to delivery before the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive stage in 2026. Indian imports were reported at a EUR500/t CFR minimum, but associated lead times are longer – some sources also suspect that exporters are close to exhausting their safeguard quotas.
As import lead times approach the end of the year, and face duty liabilities under the CBAM and potential safeguard revisions from January, European steel distributors will have little option but to source material from the domestic market come September, when restocking activity is expected to resume post-summer for fourth-quarter deliveries.
“It is getting harder to import,” said an Italian distributor. “Distributors need to make sure that any CBAM costs can be passed onto end-users.”
As such, many have taken advantage of current import competitiveness as far as possible – “prices are relatively stable at the moment, everyone is waiting for September restocking,” said a mill source. “Buyers are gorging themselves fat on imports while they can but their options will dry up next month.”
A North European distributor confirmed, having ordered over 10,000 t of Indonesian material in the last week. The source said Indonesian exporters claimed the load would be the last available to Europe before CBAM duties threaten their competitiveness, but did hear additional volumes still available as of this week. Safeguard measures do not apply to HRC exports from Indonesia.
Green Steel
The green steel market remains slow as the market awaits regulatory clarities toward the end of the year – namely CBAM benchmark values and lead market support as signalled by the European Steel and Metals Action plan.
Spot green HRC premium indications were rangebound on week at EUR75-100/t for scope 1-3 material of 0.7-0.8t carbon content, with mass-balanced material offered at similarly stable premiums of around EUR60/t for a 20% reduction from standard 2mt emissions levels. McCloskey’s reduced carbon marker – which calculates the value of a single unit of carbon reduction in reference to all surveyed green HRC premia – inched down to EUR59.13/t on week.
European distributors were heard stocking up on low-carbon imported material – particularly from Turkish electric-arc furnace producers – though end-users remain reluctant to pay premiums for green steel without a regulatory or pre-defined self-imposed decarbonization impetus.
European coil and green steel prices
| Term | Marker (EUR/t) | Change | |
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 560 | 5 |
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 665 | 15 |
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 670 | 10 |
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 535 | 5 |
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 520 | 10 |
| Weekly Green steel | |||
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 0.8t) | 80 | 0 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 640 | 5 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 0.5t) | 80 | 0 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 640 | 5 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 59.13 | -3.08 |
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
Green steel adoption still slow in Europe; amid buyer pushback against paying premiums
Fastmarkets’ methodology defines European green flat steel as “steel produced with Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions at a maximum of 0.8 tonne of CO2 per tonne of steel.”
While European mills were offering premiums for such steel at a minimum of €200 per tonne, or even higher in some cases, tradable values were mostly lower.
Buyer sources estimated that the achievable premium for such steel was €100-150 per tonne, with some bids coming in even below €100 per tonne.
Mill sources gave higher estimates of around €170-200 per tonne.
One buyer source said for green steel with such emissions threshold it was possible to get premiums at €120-130 per tonne for larger volumes.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for the green steel domestic, flat-rolled, differential to HRC index, exw Northern Europe was €120-170 per tonne on Thursday, narrowing down by €10 per tonne from €120-180 per tonne seven days earlier.
A large distributor in Northern Europe said that while it was getting regular inquiries from end users for steel with a lower emissions threshold, “only a small portion of inquiries was resulting in actual sales.”
And a second buyer source told Fastmarkets: “It’s not exactly a good time to charge premiums. Green steel remains a niche market so far, but hopefully the [Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism] (CBAM) and [the European] Steel and Metals Action Plan will give it a push in the next few years.”
Earlier this month, the European Commission launched a public consultation on the CBAM, with the aim of refining the framework and closing potential loopholes.
The European Steel and Metals Action Plan, which was published in March is also expected to support and promote the adoption of green steel across supply chains and to grant European steelmakers access to “affordable green energy.”
So far, high prices for electricity remain one of the major stumbling blocks to the decarbonization of the steel industry in Europe because the new green steel capacities announced in the region are predominantly electric-arc furnace (EAF) facilities.
Electricity prices in Europe remain significantly higher than in many other regions, with industrial rates often exceeding €100 per MWh – compared with around €30-50 per MWh in parts of the US and China – posing a major challenge for the EU’s energy-intensive industries such as steelmaking.
Green long steel
Fastmarkets’ assessment for the green steel, differential to steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europe was €15-30 per tonne on July 30, stable week on week.
While Fastmarkets’ methodology defines European green long steel as “steel produced with Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions at a maximum of 0.5 tonne of CO2 per tonne of steel,” EAF producers using scrap as feedstock typically emit around 0.8 tonne of CO2 per tonne of steel.
During the assessment week, buyer and seller estimates of achievable values for such steel were reported at €15-30 per tonne.
One source reported premiums going up to €50 per tonne and said that, depending on the tonnage and carbon emissions threshold, it was possible to achieve higher premiums in deals.
But this level was not widely confirmed by other market participants.
“Getting a premium for ‘green’ [rebar] is very challenging. The market is very weak – even for regular ‘grey’ longs,” a mill source told Fastmarkets.
European HRC market quiet as summer lull drags on
Mills in both northern and southern Europe managed to lift transaction prices slightly in previous weeks, to €560 ($645) per tonne ex-works in the North and €530 per tonne ex-works in the South, helping improve overall market sentiment after a protracted downtrend that began in May.
Further increase, however, failed to be pushed through, with the majority of buy side sources considering new offers of €580-590 per tonne ex-works in the North and 550-555 per tonne ex-works in the South to be elevated and calling them rather “preparation for September” rather than current tradeable levels.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €560 on Friday, up negligibly by € 0.21 per tonne from €559.79 per tonne on July 31.
The Northern European index was down by €3.00 per tonne week on week, but up by €2.50 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €528.33 per tonne on Friday, stable day on day.
The index was down by €6.67 per tonne week on week and similarly down month on month.