EU steelmakers hail proposed trade regime, traders warn of disruptions as industry estimates effects on the market
On October 7, the European Commission proposed new trade measures in an attempt to protect the domestic steel sector.
Under the new plan, only 18.3 million tonnes per year of steel would enter the EU without being subject to tariffs. Steel shipments exceeding that volume would face duty at 50%.
For comparison, carbon steel imports into the EU in 2024 amounted to 26.36 million tonnes, up by 6.4% from 2023’s 24.78 million tonnes, according to European steel association Eurofer.
Steelmakers support new measures
Eurofer supported the new trade measures, claiming that they “respond to the needs of the sector and represent a real lifeline for EU steelmakers and steelworkers.”
“This trade measure is vital to preserve not just the sector and its workforce, but the very backbone of EU industrial independence and the green transition,” Eurofer director general Axel Eggert said on October 7.
The association has lobbied for an increase in the out-of-quota tariff to 50% from the current 25%, and spoken in favor of quota cuts.
Overall, feedback from Europe’s steelmakers was positive, with one mill source expressing hopes that the proposed measures would help to increase capacity utilization rates and protect the industry.
“It’s a necessary step if we want to have steelmaking in Europe,” the mill source said.
Leading European steelmaker ArcelorMittal also welcomed the measures.
“ArcelorMittal and the European steel producers have been heard,” Geert Van Poelvoorde, chief executive officer of ArcelorMittal Europe, said. “Today, we can breathe a sigh of relief, with the European Commission’s announcement of the new, strengthened tariff quota proposal. We thank the Commissioners for the time and attention they have taken to understand the challenges facing our industry.”
Strong opposition from traders, distributors, processors
The reaction from steel traders and processors was markedly negative, however. Market participants told Fastmarkets that the proposal came as a shock, given the heavy reliance on imported material to supply downstream industries.
“This move will drastically limit availability and drive-up costs for processors and end-users,” one trader said. “I feel that the European Commission only takes into consideration the interests of steelmakers, forgetting that we also have a steel processing industry.”
Another market source described the proposal as “a severe blow to competitiveness,” adding that “the EU risks creating shortages and price distortions across key value chains.”
“Nobody can buy 100% domestic or 100% imported steel,” a steel service center source said. “We need options, we need variety to maintain competitiveness.”
The Italian steel distributors association, Assofermet, expressed strong opposition to the European Commission’s proposed new trade measures, saying that they would “unfairly protect EU steel producers at the expense of distributors, processors and manufacturing industries,” according to a statement released on October 8.
In the same statement, the group said that the 50% out-of-quota tariff and broad quota cuts would effectively close import channels and create a “captive market” for EU producers, leading to higher prices and a loss of competitiveness for Europe’s manufacturing base.
Assofermet warned that excessive protectionism could push manufacturers to relocate production outside the EU, and urged policymakers instead to focus on stimulating domestic steel demand.
European steel distributors’ association Eurometal has previously expressed concerns about loopholes in the EU’s trade and carbon frameworks, warning that growing volumes of steel-intensive derivative imports were bypassing both safeguard measures and the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
The group said that steel derivatives imports – such as machinery parts and prefabricated metal structures – threatened to undermine EU industry competitiveness, quietly displacing domestic manufacturing and threatening millions of jobs.
“The European Commission is linking its steel measures to those of the US,” Eurometal president Alexander Julius said on October 8. “[But] they are completely ignoring [the fact of] the US increasing inclusion of steel derivatives taxed [at] 50% and the result that those volumes may be re-directed to the EU, worsening the current effects on European manufacturing.”
Immediate effect on market
While most sector sources agreed that there would be no immediate effect on the market, because the new measures were expected to come into effect in mid-2026, everyone agreed that the new measures were a “ticking time bomb.”
But some noted a lack of clarity regarding the timeline for the implementation of the measures.
According to the European Commission, “once adopted by the Council and Parliament, the measure will replace the EU’s safeguard on steel, when it expires in June 2026.” This suggested that the new trade regime would come into force in July 2026, replacing the existing safeguards.
Earlier this year, however, several EU member states pushed for an early termination of the current safeguard measures, urging that the new framework be introduced as early as the beginning of 2026.
This has left the market questioning whether the new trade measures could, in fact, be imposed early next year.
Sources familiar with the matter, however, said that an early termination of the current safeguard system was “unlikely” and “probably not even legally possible.”
Meanwhile, other market sources were trying to estimate the effects of new measures for different market sectors, with most of the feedback suggesting that there would be no immediate effect.
“The first question is, obviously, what will be the implementation period – first quarter? Second quarter? Third quarter? The further [into the future], the lower the possible support for European prices,” a mill source in Southern Europe said.
Hot-rolled coil
Sources in the European hot-rolled coil market told Fastmarkets that European mills might make another attempt to raise domestic prices for first-quarter 2026 deliveries, expecting fewer imports due to CBAM and safeguard effects.
“We expect that prices will definitely go up,” a buyer in Germany said. “The regulations are made to protect the steel industry. The European Commission is on its [mission] to protect the steel industry. This also has incentives for green steel, because if prices become attractive, it will increase investments for green steel.”
“I expect that prices will start increasing slightly,” a buyer in Italy said, “because importing has become too difficult, and with the new safeguards there will not be enough steel for everybody.”
One supplier indicated that a price of €650 ($756) per tonne ex-works was viable for January-delivery HRC, but admitted that demand was not supportive of such an increase just yet. Fastmarkets’ calculation of the steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, averaged €567.15 per tonne in the third quarter of this year.
“Demand is not strong enough to support a €50, €60 per tonne rise,” a distributor source said. “Besides, there is no shortage of HRC in the market. Buyers rushed to book imported HRC for delivery in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 [before CBAM and new safeguard measures take effect] and booked sufficient volumes from domestic mills.”
Another source agreed that increasing prices would be difficult, considering poor market fundamentals and sufficient supply.
“There is no need to ‘go strong’ on repurchasing, due to previous purchases in July and still-high stock levels, compared with activity,” a buyer in Italy said.
Fastmarkets’ latest daily calculation of the steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €578.75 per tonne on October 8, up by €3.75 per tonne from €575.00 per tonne on October 7.
The Northern European index has increased by €3.75 per tonne week on week and by €1.67 per tonne month on month.
Plate
While many sources in the steel plate market said that there would be “no immediate effect” arising from the EC framework, others had a bullish outlook on the expectation that mills would raise offer prices because of the import cost and trade uncertainty.
“[The price of steel] plate has not moved up yet,” a buyer in Germany said. “On Tuesday, the EU announced new measures, so for sure the prices will increase. What normally happens is that European mills increase their prices based only on the fact that nobody will import due to the uncertainty around what they will have to pay in extras.”
“Prices are [still] flat,” another buyer in Germany said, “but I think we will see a price increase by end of the week [on October 10], with re-rollers facing a higher order intake, especially in South Europe, due to tariffs and CBAM.”
One source also noted that current quota volumes available under existing safeguards had “legacy volumes” from Ukraine, so the effective reduction under the proposed new measures would be around 50%.
Ukraine used to be a major supplier of steel plate to the EU, with deliveries of such material from the nation accounting for nearly half of the total plate imports into the bloc.
Ukraine’s key plate-producing assets were Metinvest’s plants in Mariupol – Azovstal and Ilyich Iron & Steel. But as a result of Russia’s invasion, Metinvest has lost control of both these units.
“The effective plate quota today is around 2.2 million tonnes [official figure, 3.2 million tonnes, of which 1 million tonnes would be from Ukraine],” a source in Italy said. “You should not consider the legacy figure for Ukraine because there is no production in the country. So the effective reduction in the plate quota will be about 50%.”
Fastmarkets’ most recent weekly price assessment for steel domestic plate, 8-40mm, exw Northern Europe, was €620-655 per tonne on October 2, flat from a week before.
Rebar, wire rod
One of the major importers of long steel in Europe said that it was too early to gauge the effects of the proposed measures on domestic prices and that “local mills have not reacted yet with price changes.”
“Maybe next week will be more representative,” he added.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europe, widened to €590-620 per tonne on October 8 from €600-615 per tonne on October 1, but the midpoint dipped only slightly to €605.00 per tonne from €607.50 per tonne.
And the corresponding weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, ex-works Italy, remained at €510-550 per tonne on October 9.
“The new measure is not adopted yet,” the importer said. “It needs to go through the approval [process] and it still lacks detail. For instance, whether quotas will be country-specific, and when exactly the change will take place. There will be more clarity in around a month’s time. From what I heard, Eurofer is pushing for the new measures to come into force from January 1, 2026.”
Market sources said that price changes would be tangible closer to the end of 2025, due to CBAM coming into force from January 1. Until then, major price changes were not expected in the long steel sector due to the lack of support from the demand side. The latter factor was said to be making the domestic long steel trade more back-to-back, instead of long-term purchases being planned.
“The reason why local steelmakers are pushing so much for stricter safeguard measures is clear,” a trading source said, “because mills make losses with current prices. But along with that, Europe needs to think about the ways in which the region’s economy could be boosted.”
The same source added that the new proposed measures would decrease the number of traders in the European market, because small companies will not be able to survive the losses that were expected to accompany import trading, with the uncertainty connected to CBAM and the proposed new import regime.
He said: “Only big companies with enough capital will be able to play this risk game.”
EU’s new safeguard framework wins producers’ support but faces backlash from users
On October 7, the European Commission revealed the highly anticipated replacement of the current safeguard system for the European steel industry, in which the free-of-duty tariff quotas are reduced by leveraging 2013 levels as a benchmark and the tariffs after exhaustion are raised to 50 percent, in line with global tariff levels.
As previously reported by SteelOrbis, the proposal also includes the “melt and pour” rule, discussed in length since its introduction in the “Steel and Metals Action Plan”, where imports will be subject to verification of origin. In the last two days, European steel producers have welcomed the new framework, while some other parties have expressed their dissatisfaction or outright rejection.
EU steel industry backs EC’s new protection measures
The German Steel Federation (WV Stahl) has stated that the new framework is an important step in ensuring fair competition in EU steel trade. “The planned tariff quota system is balanced and creates the urgently needed basis for fair competition. The EU is thus strengthening domestic steel production and removing key hurdles to investments in decarbonization,” said Gunnar Groebler, president of the German Steel Federation. According to Groubler, the new mechanism will not isolate the European market, but it will protect domestic steel production without unnecessarily burdening the manufacturing industry.
Spanish steelmakers association UNESID also welcomed the change, stating that the measure responds to a “long-standing demand from the sector, which has been warning of the impact of global overcapacity and unfair imports on industrial viability, employment, and sustainability”. Carola Hermoso, UNESID’s director general, stated, “The Commission’s proposal is ambitious and much-needed. It reestablishes a framework for fair competition, boosts the utilization of production capacity, and provides stability and confidence for investments. This is essential to ensuring the future of European steel and the thousands of jobs that depend on it”.
In addition, German metalworkers’ union IG Metall noted that, while the new framework is in the right direction, it should be implemented by January 2026 at the latest and be supported by growth stimuli and investment incentives to combat the problem of overcapacity. Jürgen Kerner, vice chairman of IG Metall, said that the “trade policy alone is no guarantee for the survival of the European steel industry and the jobs it creates”, highlighting the need for additional backing from green steel production and competitive energy costs.
Two EU-based stainless steel producers, namely Aperam and Outokumpu, applauded the European Commission’s proposal. Tim di Maulo, CEO of Aperam, stated that the new plan is essential for “leveling the playing field” and called for its swift implementation. Outokumpu, on the other hand, noted that the new quota tonnage will better reflect the current market conditions and that a review mechanism must be built into the system to assess its effectiveness based on market data and to enable corrective action where necessary.
Steel users and non-EU countries raise concerns
Even though European steelmakers have expressed their commitment to the European Commission’s new framework, end-users and other countries have directed some criticism towards it, citing limited access to import products that are not readily available in Europe and a decrease in exports to the EU, respectively. Italian distributors association Assofermet stated that the new safeguard framework is a “steel trap” for distributors and manufacturers, while South Korea is expected to enter bilateral consultations with the EC to protect the supply chain in light of the changes.
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) noted that the dramatic lowering of quotas and the doubling of the out-of-quota tariff to 50 percent will significantly reduce the possibility to relieve pressure in the European market through imports. According to ACEA, the “melt and pour” principle will restrict imports further and may bring about an inflationary impact. Sigrid de Vries, ACEA’s director general, acknowledged the need for such measures for the steel sector, but emphasized that the new rules might be too heavy for steel users to carry.
UK-based trade association UK Steel described the proposed system as “devastating” as UK-based steelmakers’ export tonnage to the EU, their most important market, could be heavily curtailed. According to UK Steel, the EU market is the destination for 78 percent of all UK steel exports, which totaled 1.9 million mt in 2024. In this regard, UK Steel has called on the British government to respond to the new framework by either negotiating preferential treatment or tightening its own quota system. “This is perhaps the biggest crisis the UK steel industry has ever faced. The government must go all out to leverage our trading relationship with the European Union to secure UK country quotas or potentially face disaster,” stated Gareth Stace, director-general of UK Steel.
ArcelorMittal shuts down Fos-sur-Mer blast furnace after major fire incident
In the early hours of October 8, a large-scale fire broke out at ArcelorMittal’s Fos-sur-Mer facility, one of France’s major integrated steel plants. The blaze started on two conveyor lines delivering raw materials to the steelmaking shop and quickly spread to surrounding structures, as reported by local media.
Internal fire brigades, assisted by local emergency services, battled the flames for several hours before fully extinguishing them. Although there were no casualties, the incident caused significant damage to both mechanical and electrical systems.
According to ArcelorMittal, the fire damaged the load-bearing structures of the conveyors and destroyed the electrical substation, forcing an immediate suspension of operations at blast furnace No. 2. The company stated that the unit will remain offline for at least two days, though the shutdown could extend depending on the results of a technical inspection. There has been no update on the condition of the blast furnace yet.
The steelmaking shop plays a central role in the Fos-sur-Mer production chain, providing slabs for downstream rolling and finishing lines. Without it, the entire plant’s production flow is disrupted. For now, the site is relying on existing slab reserves, but these are expected to run out quickly if repairs take longer than anticipated.
Romania’s flats spot prices stable amid limited demand, but upward pressure emerges
This week, while the majority of Romanian flat steel traders have continued to keep offers stable compared to last week, rumors of imminent upward price movement have started to circulate for the coming weeks.
According to market players, the new EU safeguard measures announced earlier this week, along with the ongoing implementation of CBAM, could lead to price increases, despite the generally limited demand. Meanwhile, some market participants believe that, while these new measures may offer some hope, cheap imported material will no longer be able to put pressure on the market. Others argue that the measures will mostly benefit mills, while making things more difficult for traders who rely heavily on lower-cost foreign steel.
Against this backdrop, spot market offers for hot rolled sheet (HRS) remain unchanged at €710-735/mt ex-warehouse, while cold rolled sheet (CRS) continues to be quoted at €830-845/mt ex-warehouse, both in line with the levels seen in the previous week.
Meanwhile, Liberty Galati, the country’s only flat steel producer, remains silent and uncertain regarding its future. The restructuring process is facing more delays due to a protest by judges at the Galati Court, who are only handling urgent cases. Because of this, important appeals in the case have been postponed again, with the next hearing now set for February 11, 2026. The main case has also been delayed and is now scheduled for December 16, 2025. As these dates keep being pushed back, the situation is becoming harder for everyone involved, especially the workers and creditors, and the uncertainty surrounding the plant’s future continues to grow.
On the other hand, in the import market, while not much activity has been seen on the purchasing side, some price increases have appeared on the offer side, especially from the Ukrainian supplier, mostly due to the announcement of the new safeguards. According to sources, its offers for HRS and CRS have increased to €615-620/mt CPT and €705-710/mt CPT, up from last week’s levels of €590-600/mt CPT and €680-690/mt CPT, respectively. Similarly, hot rolled coil (HRC) offers from Turkish suppliers have also increased week on week, with current CFR offers for November shipments to Romania assessed at €480-490/mt, up from €465-485/mt, including freight costs of approximately €15-20/mt. However, importers should be aware that these prices are duty-free and depend on the source, while Turkish materials are subject to antidumping duties in the EU.