EU HRC prices hold steady; market seeks direction at Blechexpo
European hot-rolled coil prices held steady Oct. 16 as market participants shifted their focus to the Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart next week.
A trader source said he expects prices to increase further after the fair, driven by EU’s CBAM carbon tariff and the European Commission’s recent safeguard proposals.
“Slowly people are starting to be aware that not buying today would be a lost opportunity,” he said. “There are not big volumes, but people are digesting higher prices.”
Offers for domestic HRC in Northern Europe were reported at Eur600/mt ex-works Ruhr. In Southern Europe, offers were reported at Eur580/mt ex-works Italy, and at Eur600/mt delivered Italy.
In the import market, market participants continued to digest the recent regulatory developments, and questioned how it would affect pricing going into the next year.
The same trader source said, “As soon as service centers realize there is going to be an import price including CBAM costs and customs duties, they will accept higher prices.”
He added that even with attractive import offers, particularly from Indonesia, cost and quota uncertainty was keeping buyers on the sidelines.
Offers for imported HRC in Southern Europe were reported at Eur520-530/mt CIF Italy for Indonesian material, inclusive of potential CBAM costs.
Turkish material was offered at Eur530/mt CIF Italy, inclusive of antidumping duties.
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Northern Europe at Eur590/mt ex-works Ruhr, and in Southern Europe at Eur555/mt ex-works Italy, both stable day over day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northern Europe at Eur490/mt CIF Antwerp, and in Southern Europe at Eur485/mt CIF Southern Europe, also both unchanged day over day.
LME WEEK: Steel imports to slow due to CBAM, green premiums fragmented
Steel import business into the EU is slowing down due to the incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acting as a trade barrier, with CBAM costs expected to range from Eur10-250/mt, Gavin Steel, carbon specialist at European steel trading house Duferco, said Oct. 15.
“Our volumes that we’re importing or looking to import in the next quarter of next year are way down year-on-year, purely because Duferco is a risk-conservative company,” Steel said.
At a panel at the Triland Metals Sustainability in Metals Forum during LME Week, Steel said CBAM would be more of a trade barrier than an environmental policy by the way it is enacted.
“I’m not sure if it’s on purpose or due to the complexity that the EU faces,” he said.
The steel industry still needs crucial CBAM benchmark values, the CO2 intensity thresholds used to calculate the carbon border tax. The European Commission said earlier in October that the publication of those would be delayed.
Steel said when asked by Platts what the trading strategy looks like amid little visibility on CBAM costs that the import window to purchase from the Far East for arrival ahead of 2026, before the definitive phase of CBAM starts Jan. 1, has closed now.
“It’s difficult to keep going, keeping customers by delivering the material that we need to deliver when we’re not certain what price we can guarantee them,” he said, adding that Duferco is currently looking into CBAM cost sharing on the producer and customer side, as well as contract clauses that leave room to negotiate once the costs are known. He also said Duferco is hedging carbon cost as a form or risk mitigation.
Anna Gastmaier, climate specialist at Brazilian miner Vale, said during the panel that the EU’s CBAM has proven to be a driver for other countries to implement emission trading systems and said this would be “a win” for the European Commission.
“The national ETS in China is expanding for sectors that are impacted by CBAM or in Indonesia, Turkey, for example. And you really see in the documentation published by the different national authorities that they are often directly referring to CBAM as part of the reason why the scope is as it is,” she said. “So it is absolutely encouraging more global carbon pricing globally.”
Green premium development fragmented across metals
Explaining the Oct. 13 announcement by the London Metal Exchange to publish green premiums for nickel, zinc, copper and aluminum, Alice Lim, the London Metal Exchange’s head of CEO office and corporate sustainability, said on the panel that industry feedback was very different across the metals.
“I would say just off the kind of very, very high level on the aluminum front, we were looking at very positive feedback across,” Lim said. “And I think the sentiment is that they hope that there could be a premium — whereas if you move to copper, it slightly different sentiment, but they weren’t sure whether the end consumer would actually kind of pay for a premium,” Lim said.
Miles Prosser, secretary general of the International Aluminium Institute, said that even within a product, there would be fragmentation of a green premium. “I think it’s important that we remember that zero carbon, low carbon and sustainable are three different concepts, all important, and they’ve all got a role to play in how we drive change in the industry, but we shouldn’t just subscribe to one of those as being the sole purpose,” he said.
Guy Mercer, head of sustainability at European Metal Recycling, said that the investments steel scrap and precious metal recyclers have to undertake are costly amid decarbonization efforts and will struggle until they can recoup the cost from the current “elusive” green premium. “We still believe it [the green premium]is there,” he said. “It’s just not being felt yet.”
Platts assessed low-carbon aluminum billet at $500/mt DDP Germany Oct. 15, at a $10/mt upcharge over the conventional aluminum billet assessment. The Platts hot-rolled coil carbon-accounted steel assessment was assessed at Eur660/mt ex-works Ruhr Oct. 15, at a Eur70/mt premium over the conventional hot-rolled coil price.
Ukraine steelmaker Metinvest positions for steel market recovery amid war
Metinvest, the largest Ukrainian mining and metals company, is consolidating its ongoing projects and positioning itself for a steel market recovery through domestic and international investments, CEO Yuriy Ryzhenkov told Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, on Oct. 15.
Ryzhenkov was hoping for a renewed international focus on the Russia-Ukraine war to facilitate an end to the conflict. The war has drastically diminished Ukraine’s steel production capacity, with Metinvest losing facilities in occupied Mariupol and a destroyed coke plant in Avdiivka, which together produced 10 million metric tonnes annually before the invasion.
Metinvest’s remaining plants now operate at reduced capacity: Zaporizhstal JV is at 75% and Kamet Steel at 65%, hindered by war-damaged equipment, Ryzhenkov said.
“I hope that will switch attention back to the Ukrainian conflict because the focus has shifted to other global issues,” Ryzhenkov said, referencing tensions in the Middle East. He acknowledged increased interactions between Ukrainian and US officials but added that he still sees “no clear path to the end of the war.”
“There were many expectations for a quick resolution. Recently, President [Donald] Trump and other US officials acknowledged it’s more challenging than anticipated,” Ryzhenkov said.
Despite wartime challenges, Metinvest is executing large-scale repairs and modernization projects to maintain and expand production capabilities. The company prioritizes reducing carbon emissions through modernized equipment and processes, even as Ukraine seeks to postpone the strictest Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism provisions due to current geopolitical realities.
In the first half of 2025, Metinvest invested $28.8 million at Kamet Steel and $6.4 million at Zaporizhstal JV. Kamet Steel completed its first major overhaul since the invasion, repairing blast furnace No. 9 for $16 million and restoring a converter’s equipment.
The company is also pursuing energy independence, aiming for 60% self-sufficiency of its facilities’ energy needs. Currently, it generates approximately 100 MW of the required 600 MW through solar and other power sources. Upgrades are underway at the Northern iron ore facility, with design work in progress to enhance a sintering machine for improved pellet production to meet EU green steelmaking standards, according to Ryzhenkov.
While most of Metinvest’s iron ore facilities are running at full capacity, one remains idle due to energy costs and staff shortages from military conscription, Ryzhenkov added.
Strategically, Metinvest’s joint venture with Italian steelmaker Danieli for the Adria project in Italy is becoming a crucial growth initiative timed for market recovery. The company has signed agreements with Italian authorities and is finalizing bank financing.
“Financing is on the critical path. It’s not permissions; it’s how quickly the banks can act,” Ryzhenkov said.
The current steel market downturn presents strategic opportunities for expansion. “We are at the bottom of the cycle. That’s why everyone is protective, including the US and Europe,” Ryzhenkov noted, referring to the latest news on tariffs. “Building a mill takes [two and a half to three] years, so by the time we finish, we are likely to be in a different market phase.”
Metinvest is also divesting non-core assets, including its US subsidiary, United Coal. “We have proposals from several buyers and are waiting for committed bids,” the CEO stated, highlighting a structured competitive process with external advisers.
CBAM is Coming – can the Steel supply chain handle the costs?
EUROMETAL, in collaboration with Fastmarkets, hosted a high-level webinar on Monday, 13 October, bringing together over 400 participants from across the European and international steel supply chain.
The webinar, titled “CBAM is coming – can the steel supply chain handle the costs?”, focused on the pressing challenges posed by the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its potential cost implications for steel distributors, processors, and manufacturers.
We extend our sincere thanks to our expert panelists Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada (UNESID), Jaap Jan Aardenburg (Tata Steel Nederland) and Tayfun Iseri (Colakoglu Metalurji).
Special appreciation also goes to Shyamal Patel (Fastmarkets) for his analytical presentation on CBAM risks, and to Julia Bolotova (Fastmarkets) for expertly moderating the discussion.
Missed the webinar? You can now access the full recording here:
We thank all attendees and our partners at Fastmarkets for making this webinar a success. EUROMETAL remains committed to supporting its members in understanding and adapting to CBAM as part of Europe’s broader decarbonisation framework.
Poland’s Huta Częstochowa plans 300,000 mt of steel output in 2025, 500,000 mt in 2026
Polish steelmaker Huta Częstochowa, a subsidiary of Poland-based coking coal exporter Węglokoks, continues to ramp up output. According to local media reports, the company produced 213,000 mt of steel and sold 160,000 mt of flat rolled products in the current year up to the end of September and aims to reach 300,000 mt of production by the year-end and 500,000 mt in 2026.
The company has produced more than 100,000 mt of steel since the resumption of production in January 2025, following a year of shutdown, as SteelOrbis previously reported.
The company has restarted thick-gauge rolled product production and now supplies dual-use steels for both civilian and defense purposes. New developments include low-silicon and high-deformation low-carbon steels, expanding its portfolio to serve the shipbuilding and offshore wind energy sectors.
Huta Częstochowa is pursuing a license to produce armored and ballistic sheets, a segment where it already has the necessary technical capacity. This move is expected to strengthen its position in the defense industry and broaden its product range.
EU leaders seek industrial support measures ahead of 2040 climate target agreement
European Union leaders are expected to endorse the adoption of a new 2040 climate target at their upcoming summit on October 23, while calling for stronger measures to support energy-intensive industries such as steel and automotive manufacturing, according to a draft seen by Reuters.
Originally due for approval by a UN deadline in September, the decision was delayed due to the concerns of France, Poland and other countries about how to finance the low-carbon transition alongside other priorities such as defense and industrial revitalization.
Focus on enabling framework and industrial competitiveness
According to the draft conclusions, leaders will authorize member states and lawmakers to proceed with defining the 2040 emissions-reduction goal, while tasking the European Commission to design a strong “enabling framework” to help industries and citizens manage transition costs.
The document stresses that traditional industries, including automotive, shipping, aviation, steel, metals, and chemicals, require particular attention to remain resilient and globally competitive.
Political trade-offs and emerging policy debates
While the draft stops short of specifying new financial commitments such as fundings, EU diplomats said some countries are seeking adjustments to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), while others want flexibility on the 2035 ban on combustion-engine vehicles.
The text also reiterates that EU climate goals should be achieved in a “technologically neutral” manner, allowing flexibility in the choice of decarbonization pathways and energy technologies.
If endorsed, the 2040 climate target will be formally adopted by EU climate ministers on November 4, ahead of the COP30 UN Climate Conference.
European HRC prices rise as mills push for higher levels as expected
Hot rolled coil (HRC) prices in Europe have strengthened this week as leading European producer ArcelorMittal introduced higher offers for deliveries in late December and January. Specifically, ArcelorMittal has raised its offers by at least €30/mt, now quoting €630/mt for December and €650/mt for January, ex-works or delivered. However, market participants noted that these levels mirror the prices the producer had announced last month but was unable to implement at the time.
Other European mills have also floated higher offers, but resistance from customers remains firm amid limited spot activity. “It will be difficult to secure any significant price increases in December,” one trader said, noting that buyers are well covered for the fourth quarter with both domestic and imported material.
Specifically, local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €610-630/mt ex-works for new orders for December deliveries, up by €10-20/mt week on week, while some even target €640/mt ex-works for delivery in January. However, the tradable price levels have been estimated at €580-590/mt ex-works in the north of Europe, up by €10/mt week on week.
Meanwhile, in Italy, indicative HRC offers from mills have remained at €590-610/mt ex-works for December delivery, against €570-580/mt ex-works for November and December delivery last week, while the tradable price level has settled at €560-580/mt ex-works levels, up by €20-30/mt since last week.
According to sources, while near-term sentiment remains subdued, some sources expect prices to edge higher in early 2026 as import availability tightens. However, the €650/mt ex-works level is widely seen as “too ambitious” under current conditions.
“For now, most mills are treading carefully, keen to maintain higher offers but aware that sufficient December tonnages remain unsold, and supply is far from constrained,” a market insider told SteelOrbis, adding, “They [mills] will continue taking orders for this year at discounted prices, while aiming for price increases early next year.”
Meanwhile, the import market for HRC in Europe has remained extremely weak as buyers continue to refrain from placing new import orders amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding CBAM compliance and EU safeguard regulations. With delivery timelines now stretching into December, most buyers see little incentive to commit to new cargoes. Indicative offer prices for import HRC have been estimated at €505-530/mt CFR, up by €5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. However, higher offers for ex-Asia HRC for delivery in the first quarter of 2026, for ex-Thailand in particular, at around €570/mt CFR southern Europe have started to appear in the market including CBAM costs, according to sources.
Besides, talk about a deal for around 10,000 mt of ex-India HRC signed at $590 CFR Spain, or around €505/mt CFR for delivery in December, has been circulating in the market this week.
Offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been estimated at €520-540/mt CFR, duty included, for delivery in December, but market participants note that the import quota is already full, meaning not all incoming cargoes can be cleared duty-free.
Hydnum Steel: Market demands more high-added-value products
Shifting to low-emissions steel products, investment in new technology and adapting to the requirements of a more demanding market will be essential for the development of the industry, says Hydnum Steel’s chief commercial officer, Gilles Mirol during a panel at the Kallanish Global Flat Steel conference held in Istanbul on 16 October.
“We are innovators in a business environment that now presents major challenges such as market protection, [Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism] CBAM, and unfair imports. Defending c4apex for a company already established in the sector is more difficult than for a company like Hydnum Steel, because it has to transform its production, business model, etc, while for us, it is an advantage to be a greenfield project,” Mirol observes.
Spain’s Hydnum Steel (HS) is building the first low-emissions steel mill on the Iberian Peninsula and will use fossil-free energy throughout the manufacturing process before gradually incorporating green hydrogen. The plant will have a flat steel capacity of 2.6 million tonnes/year and is expected to become operational in 2026.
Until 2030, many steel companies will have to adapt to the new rules of an advanced decarbonisation market, where HS will be very well-positioned.
According to Mirol, customers are changing and becoming more demanding of innovative and sustainable products.
“We see a deficiency in some products. Modern industrial projects demand the supply of high-added value steel, while the sale of poor-quality material will become more and more limited. There is a great opportunity for new actors producing low-emissions steel to become more and more important,” he continues.
Europe’s paradigm shift is already being transmitted to other regions that are more conservative in their investment in technological advances.
“The future does not belong only to the biggest producers with big investment capacities, but also to the most agile, to those who know how to anticipate trends and connect new technology. The development of the steel industry is no longer inherited, it is programmed,” he concludes.
Todor Kirkov Bulgaria
Planning, innovation to offset trade barriers: Kallanish conference
Strategic planning and long-term vision in the steel industry’s downstream chain can turn tariff pressure into a catalyst for transformation and competitiveness, according to panellists and delegates at the Kallanish Global Flat Steel conference held in Istanbul on 16 October.
“Amid the current environment of higher costs and greater regulatory challenges, the manufacturing sector has the tools for sustained growth, with an export capacity above the global average, a well-structured and diversified market,” observed panellist Colakoglu Metalurji’s chairman, Metin Tayfun.
Delegates speaking on the sidelines of the conference agreed with this. The steel sector, which represents a large part of European industry, has the opportunity to accelerate its transformation through strategic foreign trade management, leveraging technology and market diversification.
“Trade protection and rising input costs present a dual challenge of maintaining export competitiveness while adapting to an increasingly regulated and digital business environment,” a representative from Turkis Borcelik told Kallanish.
Todor Kirkov Bulgaria
European prices to rise, conditions remain difficult
Steel prices are expected to increase in Europe in the coming years, not due to higher demand, but from the introduction of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in 2026 and changes to the EU tariffs, delegates heard at the Kallanish Global Flat Steel conference in Istanbul on 16 October.
Stanislav Zinchenko, ceo of GMK Center, said: “We can expect new rounds of increases every month in Europe, starting from next year.”
“The European automotive sector is still in good position and construction is also in better shape. In 2026, we expect real steel consumption growth around 2% on-year due to stable demand from market and will recover from losses this year,” he added.
According to him, in Europe we could see the start of a new “golden era” for steelmakers. “However, like always, a lot of things depends [on] European bureaucracy and governments policies locally. I think the best place to invest now is Europe.”
Fellow panellist Metin Taifin Iseri, chairman of Colakoglu Metalurji, however, expects uneasy times in the near future.
“This was difficult year for the flat steel market and the next one will be even more difficult,” he said. “Turkish steelmakers have found ways to survive despite higher production costs and exports restrictions are increasing all the time.”
“The US market has always been different, because hot rolled coil prices are not getting high values there and is closed for Turkey with new restriction measures,” noted the general manager of Yildiz Demir Celik, Selcuk Yilmaz. “There is a high supply of flat products to Turkey, but we have less opportunities to export commodities to the European market as well. North Africa is also closed for Turkish steelmakers and there is limited market for them in the United Kingdom.”
Production costs and scrap prices are very high in Turkey which impacts the ability to utilise steel capacities at the mills, he adds.
Svetoslav Abrossimov Bulgaria