Italian restocking accelerates as flats, distributor sentiment rise
Sentiment is improving in the Italian distribution sector, supported by fourth-quarter price recovery and improved margins, particularly for flat products and their derivatives, Kallanish notes.
The uncertainty surrounding CBAM and the new safeguard regime is paradoxically adding confidence, with distributors expecting further price gains as protectionist measures are implemented.
Some distributors’ purchasing behaviour has shifted since November, sources note. Distributors have returned to buying sizeable volumes to restock, encouraged by firmer flat steel and coil derivative prices, and by expectations of a continued uptrend in the first quarter next year.
By contrast, long products are seeing slower sales, especially in southern Italy where adverse weather has disrupted construction activity and deliveries. A major distributor notes that long products demand remains volatile due to weakness in the private construction sector, though this is being partly offset by strong infrastructure orders financed by the EU post-Covid recovery fund. “Margins have returned, and the end of the year will compensate for many months of low prices,” the owner comments.
Another large distributor reports securing significant volumes of longs and flats ahead of the December holiday period, procuring material before the latest round of price increases implemented by European mills. “The end of the year is saving us,” a third distributor says, confirming restocking is taking place in November and December in anticipation of future hikes and to prepare for next year.
Despite a 20% drop in volumes in 2025, the company’s revenue improved thanks to stronger Q4 pricing on plate, sheet and tube. The service centre traditionally purchases small, frequent lots, but has changed strategy amid the current price environment.
Service centres remain noticeably less upbeat than distributors. Exposure to CBAM surcharges and quota constraints will push up their procurement costs, forcing them to reconsider their sourcing strategies.
A purchasing group reports a sense of “anxiety” in the market as service centres struggle to quantify import costs and do not consumption improving. Tube prices are rising alongside sheet and strip, but increases remain slower and continue to lag behind coil gains.
Natalia Capra France
EU HRC prices stay unchanged amid mixed sentiment among participants
European hot-rolled coil prices remained stable Dec. 4 as market sentiment was split, with producers voicing optimism and traders raising concern.
“Everyone believes price increases will come, so customers are booking material right now,” a mill source said. “I am positive about the price journey.”
A trader source said that the current market uncertainty surrounding CBAM and safeguards was making the environment difficult to operate in.
“Service centers are competing among themselves because of low orders,” he added. “Demand has not changed fundamentally.”
Participants also converged at the EUROMETAL steel trade day in Dusseldorf, in which many called for more action from the European Commission to ease this uncertainty.
Tradable values for domestic HRC in Northern Europe were reported at Eur600-620/mt ex-works Ruhr, with an offer pegged at Eur630/mt ex-works. Indicative offers for March/Feb deliveries were heard at Eur660-690/mt.
In Southern Europe, a tradable value was reported at Eur600/mt ex-works Spain.
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Northern Europe at Eur610/mt ex-works Ruhr, and in Southern Europe at Eur595/mt ex-works Italy, both stable day over day.
Import activity remained subdued, still hindered by confusion surrounding the recent release of draft CBAM benchmarks and default values. The same trader said that mills abroad “need to get certified quickly,” as some countries’ default values were slightly higher than expected.
Offers for imported Asian material were reported at Eur560-580/mt DDP Antwerp, inclusive of CBAM costs, while Turkish material was offered at Eur580/mt DDP Antwerp.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northern Europe at Eur500/mt CIF Antwerp and in Southern Europe at Eur495/mt CIF S. Europe, both unchanged day over day.
Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.
European heavy plate prices rise even as CBAM, year-end caution keeps buyers on sidelines
European domestic heavy plate prices rose in the week ending Dec. 5, although market activity remained muted as buyers weighed CBAM developments and year-end order visibility.
Producers continued to float higher Q1 offers during the week, but actual transactions largely reflected existing commitments rather than fresh buying.
Platts assessed domestic plate at Eur645/mt ex-works Italy, up Eur15 on the week, and at Eur705/mt ex-works Ruhr, up Eur10 on the week.
Platts assessed imported slab at $510/mt CIF Italy, stable on the week.
Italian S275 plate tradable values were reported at Eur650-660/mt ex-works for February delivery, while offers stretched to Eur700/mt for select material.
S235 plate in Northern Europe saw offers at Eur720-740/mt ex-works Ruhr, with DAP quotes for S355 reaching Eur750-785/mt. Market participants emphasized that elevated levels were mostly aspirational, with end-user demand described as subdued.
Slab prices held steady, with Asian- and Brazil-origin material heard at $500-520/mt CIF Italy. Sources noted that forward bookings for Q1 remained limited, as buyers awaited greater clarity on CBAM documentation and potential safeguard adjustments.
Several market sources highlighted a lack of import interest for coils and plate, citing regulatory uncertainty and existing coverage for January deliveries. One Italy-based mill noted that “buyers are covered and will receive material; there is no urgency until March.”
A European trader added that project-related demand was the only segment showing any movement.
Green steel market remains muted in Europe amid limited demand
Fastmarkets’ methodology defines European green flat steel as “steel produced with Scope 1, 2 or 3 emissions at a maximum of 0.8 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel.”
During the assessment week, a deal for 100 tonnes of green hot-rolled coil (HRC) was heard done with a premium of €180 ($210) per tonne in Germany.
Buyer sources estimated achievable premiums at €70-150 per tonne for green flats, while sellers claimed achievable prices were higher – at €150-180 per tonne, depending on tonnage.
Producers continued to offer such material at €200-210 per tonne and even as high as €300 per tonne from one Nordics-based supplier, but such premiums were rarely achieved in trades.
The wide price spread again highlighted that, although green steel has been discussed for some time, the market is still in its early stages, with demand remaining very niche.
“Green steel [demand] is still very much project-based; nobody buys it [green steel] for stock,” a seller in Europe said.
“The number of projects in Europe that genuinely require green steel – at least for now – is very small, and the pool of buyers remains limited,” a source at a German steel service center told Fastmarkets.
Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment of the green steel domestic, flat-rolled, differential to HRC index, exw Northern Europe, meanwhile, was set at €100-180 per tonne on Thursday, widening up from €100-170 per tonne seven days ago.
Fastmarkets’ assessment of the flat steel reduced carbon emissions differential, exw Northern Europe was €40-50 per tonne on Thursday, stable week on week.
For steel produced in blast furnaces with reduced carbon emissions of 1.4-1.8 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel, offers for premiums were reported at €60-70 per tonne during the assessment week.
Buyers’ estimates of tradable prices were around €30-50 per tonne, with no new trades reported.
Green longs
In the long steel segment, it remains much harder for producers to push through premiums among customers, owing to the initially more environmentally friendly nature of production.
Fastmarkets’ methodology defines European green long steel as steel produced with Scope 1, 2 or 3 emissions at a maximum of 0.5 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel.
Premium offers varied within the wide range of €20-50 per tonne, depending on producer, but getting this level appears nearly impossible.
“In fact, when a customer chooses a rebar supplier, those who have emissions higher than 0.45 tonnes of CO2 [per tonne] of steel provide discounts and those who have the required level of emissions or below that number sell at the standard price,” a producer source said.
Fastmarkets green steel, differential to steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, delivered Northern Europe narrowed to €20-30 per tonne on December 3 versus €15-50 per tonne a week prior on November 26.
The assessment reflects the lowest offers targeted by suppliers.
Polish steel rebar prices rise slightly amid low demand, regulatory uncertainty
According to a distributor source, there are expectations that scrap will be “more expensive in January,” which they say could also drive up prices for long steel products.
However, growth remains limited, with sources saying that demand is still weak.
According to a second distributor source, buyers are already “stocked up” as they anticipate “higher prices” next year with the introduction of new trade rules, including the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Over the week to Friday, estimates of workable levels for rebar were heard hovering around 2,400-2,450 zloty ($661-675) per tonne CPT, with an offer heard at 2,450 zloty per tonne CPT.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, cpt Poland was 2,400-2,450 zloty per tonne on Friday, narrowing upward from 2,380-2,450 zloty per tonne one week prior.
Meanwhile, wire rod prices remained stable during the week.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (drawing quality), domestic, delivered Poland was 2,600-2,650 zloty per tonne on Friday, unchanged week on week.