EU HRC prices steady as market freezes ahead of CBAM clarity
European hot-rolled coil prices were largely unchanged Dec. 5, with participants describing a market held back by regulatory uncertainty and limited urgency on both the buying and selling sides.
Market sources said that expectations for the European Commission’s forthcoming CBAM documentation continued to dominate sentiment, with several participants noting that even preliminary values could shift procurement strategies for early 2026.
“Everything is on pause,” a mill source said. “Producers have covered January, buyers are covered as well, so no one feels the need to push volumes. We’re all waiting for the Commission’s paper. That’s the key trigger.”
A trader source echoed the view, calling the environment “chaotic” and highlighting that safeguard constraints were equally restricting foreign coil availability. “Imports are practically absent,” he said. “It’s not just CBAM, safeguards are blocking meaningful volumes for Q1.”
In Northern Europe, tradable discussions were reported at Eur600-610/mt ex-works Ruhr.
Southern European indications remained steady, with a tradable value at Eur600/mt ex-works Italy for February delivery. Offers from Italian mills continued to be pitched at Eur620-630/mt ex-works, though several buyers dismissed these as “aspirational” until regulatory visibility improves.
Indonesian-origin coil was offered at Eur470-480/mt CIF Italy, exclusive of CBAM charges, though sources said buyers were reluctant to engage without clarity on final carbon values.
Platts assessed domestic HRC at Eur610/mt ex-works Ruhr and Eur595/mt ex-works Italy, both unchanged day over day.
Platts assessed imported HRC at Eur500/mt CIF Antwerp and Eur495/mt CIF Southern Europe, also both stable day over day.
IREPAS Short Range Outlook: December 2025
No holiday cheer in global longs market – rising costs add to already weak demand
As we approach the holiday season, the general atmosphere in the global long steel products market is still cloudy. To sum up the market situation, demand is weak everywhere, with the approach of the holiday season exacerbating this situation, while costs are rising, China is producing a little less but is still exporting. The net effect is that the supply-demand balance has not improved, it has just shifted for different reasons. Decreases in consumption globally have put demand in a weak situation, with customers not yet observing any rises in consumption on the horizon which would give them hope for brighter market prospects.
EU market more cost-driven than before, scrap supply tighter
What has changed in the market is the cost structure. Scrap supply in Europe is tighter than usual, possibly in expectation of CBAM in 2026. Combined with higher electricity prices, this has pushed prices higher even though finished steel demand has not changed. So, the market is now even more cost-driven than last month.
New EU safeguard measures give brief boost, but demand shrinking in general
We have seen some price increases and a relative rise in demand in the EU due to the announcement of new safeguard measures. However, this improvement is temporary. Demand in the EU is shrinking in general despite promised infrastructure projects and a lack of apartments. The capacities of EU producers have increased over the past 12 months again, which increases the imbalance in the market. Despite the upcoming CBAM and tougher safeguard rulings, prices in the EU have been increasing only by very small margins due to low demand. No change is in sight.
China still exports at full speed, production cuts make little difference
On the supply side, China is finally showing real production cuts. In the first 10 months of the year, China’s crude steel output amounted to 817.87 million metric tons, down 3.9 percent year on year. This is the first meaningful drop in a while and should, in theory, take some pressure off the global balance. But as long as the tonnages they actually produce continue to flow abroad, the practical impact of the reduction in output is limited. In reality, China is still exporting at full speed because their domestic consumption is dropping even further. On the other hand, the export market is more attractive for the Chinese. Any changes in the rest of the world will have little impact on Chinese exports, as hopes fade of a stimulus by Beijing to boost domestic steel consumption.
Projects put on hold in US due to high interest rates
In the US, demand is still flat. Due to year-end taxes, most stockists are trying to reduce their inventories. Buying decisions are being pushed to 2026. Infrastructure investments are slow and due to high interest rates residential and commercial construction projects are put on hold, waiting for further interest rate cuts. Imports are reduced due to high duty and competition from domestic production.
Many countries still hoping to negotiate tariff exemptions with US
Many countries are trying to find a way to negotiate with the US to gain exemptions from tariffs, especially Mexico. The EU will probably also offer a new deal to the US once its new safeguard is in place. Any exemption will of course change the dynamics of the market.
Turkey’s scrap imports decline, sensitive to increases in scrap costs
Sudden increases in scrap prices will also cause production cuts in Turkey. Turkey’s scrap imports declined by 7.3 percent to 15.23 million mt in the first 10 months of 2025. The import volumes in the corresponding periods since 2020 varied in the range of 18-20 million mt.
Great uncertainty predominates in very unstable market situation
There are factors creating tremendous uncertainty in the global longs market, such as CBAM and the awaited ruling of the US Supreme Court on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, which make future planning extremely difficult. Meanwhile, competition in the market is intense but for low volumes. Under these circumstances, the current situation in the market can be described as very unstable.
High stocks keep trading in European domestic HRC market muted
“Stocks are full and there is very little buying activity,” an Italian buyer source told Fastmarkets.
In the absence of deals, estimates of workable prices in the country varied within the range of €600-610 ($699-711) per tonne ex-works.
The key supplier, however, increased offers for January-February delivery to €650 per tonne delivered, which is equivalent to €630-635 per tonne ex-works. This compares with €630 per tonne delivered in late November.
A compatriot producer’s recent target was €630 per tonne delivered or €610-615 per tonne ex-works, following sales in late November at €610 per tonne delivered.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €613.33 per tonne on Friday, up by €11.45 per tonne from €601.88 per tonne on Thursday December 4.
The index was down by €10.83 per tonne week on week but up by €19.16 per tonne month on month.
Both buyers and sellers in Italy expected prices to strengthen in the coming weeks amid the approaching introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a measure equalizing carbon costs between EU and non-EU industries.
In Northern Europe, offers did not increase but narrowed in early December. Sources said that no material was available in the region below €630 per tonne ex-works. The general range was €630-650 per tonne ex-works versus €620-650 per tonne in late November.
No fresh deals were heard on Friday. Estimates of workable prices varied within the wide range of €610-630 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €622.50 per tonne on Friday, up by €2.50 per tonne from €620.00 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was up by €7.50 per tonne week on week and by €22.50 per tonne month on month.
Domestic HRC prices in Central Europe remained stable this week.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil domestic, exw Central Europe was €610-620 per tonne on Wednesday, unchanged week on week.
