The new quota period in the EU has started
The new quota period in the EU has started as of April 1.
Although the volumes awaiting at the ports are not cleared through customs yet, given the high volumes of imports waiting at the ports, for some products, the quota volumes have already been exhausted.
In the table below, you can see the products for which quotas have already been exhausted and also those for which more than 80 percent of quotas have been used up.
Author: SteelOrbis Editorial Team
EU flat steel TRQs near exhaustion early in Q2; long steel uptake slower
Flat steel
In the flat steel segment, quota utilization has been relatively strong in key categories, with several origins approaching full allocation shortly after the start of the quarter.
For hot-rolled coil, India and Turkey remained the most “popular” origins.
Notably, India has fully exhausted its allocation for HRC for the second quarter of 2026, just a couple of days after it was renewed. It is worth noting that, as of April 1, indicative HRC volumes awaiting allocation for India stood at 304,826 tonnes, exceeding the available duty-free quota of 225,306 tonnes. By Tuesday April 7, the quota had been fully exhausted, with no tonnages remaining awaiting allocation, European Commission customs data showed.
Market participants noted that a portion of these volumes reflects carry-over demand from the previous quarter, combined with continued preference for duty-free material.
Turkey has used over 50% of its 398,355 tonne allocation for the period, with tonnages awaiting allocation indicating that the quota will be fully utilized within days as well [see table].
Sources said, that buyers were rushing second-quarter bookings ahead of imminent implementations of new safeguards as of July 1. The EU implemented provisional steel safeguard measures in July 2018, followed by definitive measures in February 2019. The new system, expected to replace existing safeguards, will come into effect as of July 1 and are expected to include a large cut in import quotas (about 50%) and a higher “out of quota” duty (50% instead of 25%).
“We don’t know the size of country-specific quotas, so everyone who needs to import [is trying] to buy as much as possible with delivery in Q2,” a buyer in Italy said.
In downstream products, including cold-rolled coil and hot-dipped galvanized coil, quota usage has also been uneven.
Europe’s CRC market has historically relied heavily on imported material, particularly for standard commodity grades. But recent regulatory changes have significantly narrowed sourcing options. In particular, an ongoing anti-dumping probe covering CRC shipments from India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam — which together account for roughly two-thirds of the EU’s total CRC import volume — has materially reduced the availability of foreign supply.
Despite the ongoing anti-dumping investigation for CRC, three out of five targeted countries — Turkey, Vietnam and Taiwan — have used up large portions of their allocations as of April 7.
“We take the risk [of importing coil] to diversify supply sources. Plus, new safeguards will come into force in July — so it is best to import coil before that, because the new regime suggests a 50% imports cut,” a buyer in Germany said.
For HDG, certain origins have seen rapid take-up, while others still have notable balances available or pending allocation.
Sources said this divergence reflects shifting trade flows and continued uncertainty linked to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which has complicated import planning.
“Some quotas are moving quickly, but others are barely touched because buyers are still cautious on CBAM costs,” a trader in Northern Europe said. “Besides, lead times are stretching, and new war in the Middle East send Asia-origin cargoes around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds 2 more weeks to lead times.”
Disruptions to new import flows have lent support to a bullish trend in the domestic market, despite end-user demand seen as stable at low levels, Fastmarkets understands.
For example, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was calculated at €718.25 ($839.37) per tonne on April 7, down by €0.51 per tonne from €718.76 per tonne on April 2.
The Northern Europe index was up by €6.75 per tonne week on week and up by €18.25 per tonne month on month.
European mills were largely sold out for second-quarter delivery HRC, with only limited tonnages for June lead times left. For example, in Germany and the Benelux area, offers for July shipment HRC were reported at higher levels of €750-760 per tonne ex-works. In contrast, in the second half of March, deals for June-delivery coil in Northern Europe were heard at €700-730 per tonne ex-works.
Long steel
In contrast, uptake in the long steel segment has generally lagged behind that of flat steel.
Although some activity has been recorded in rebar and wire rod quotas, with Turkey leading the uptake in both categories, significant volumes are yet to be utilized across multiple origins.
Market participants said that this slower pace is consistent with recent trends, where buyers have increasingly relied on domestic supply rather than imports.
“There is no urgency to book imports in longs at the moment,” a distributor said. “People prefer local material, especially with the uncertainty around additional CBAM costs.”
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, delivered Northern Europe averaged €635.63 per tonne at the midpoint in March, versus an average of €623.75 per tonne in February.
The corresponding weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality) domestic, delivered Northern Europe averaged €621.25 per tonne at the midpoint in March, versus an average of €597.50 per tonne in February.
Local prices in Europe have been on an upward trajectory in recent months, driven by higher production costs — for scrap, electricity and transportation. Coupled with tighter imports due to the implementation of CBAM and upcoming safeguards, this creates the room for further increases.
Author: Julia Bolotova, Vlada Novokreshchenova
IREPAS Short Range Outlook : April 2026
Global longs market deteriorates further amid war-related supply-side shock, ceasefire in Iran war offers hope
There have been no signs of improvement in the global long steel products market. On the contrary, the current business environment has, unfortunately, deteriorated rather than improved in terms of the supply and demand balance. The wars, particularly in Iran and Ukraine, have significantly exacerbated existing disruptions across global supply chains. What we have seen looks more like a supply-side shock than a demand recovery: higher energy, electricity and freight costs have pushed prices upward, and these increases have so far been widely accepted by customers as inevitable.
Many economies would enter recessionary territory if ceasefire in Iran war fails to hold
So much will depend on whether the ceasefire just announced in the Iran war will hold. If it does not hold and should energy prices remain elevated, there would a substantial risk that many economies will enter recessionary territory, with wide-ranging and potentially severe consequences. Transportation costs have already risen considerably, while uncertainty surrounding future demand has increased across all major markets. At the same time, there is a noticeable shift toward greater protectionism, further complicating international trade dynamics.
US scrap export volumes decline, UK shifts to containerized scrap exports to Turkey
US ferrous scrap export volumes are in decline due to more domestic consumption and difficult prices in Asian markets, while the UK is shifting to containerized exports to Turkey.
On the bright side, increased pre-ordering and restocking activity observed
Despite the prevailing challenges, there are some positive aspects in the global market. Heightened uncertainty is prompting contractors involved in confirmed construction projects to secure supply in advance, leading to increased pre-ordering in order to mitigate the risk of further cost escalations. Additionally, in an inflationary environment, apparent demand often exceeds actual demand, as businesses tend to build up inventories as a precautionary measure. This dynamic is likely to result in a degree of restocking activity, providing short-term support to market demand.
Three distinct regional dynamics seen in competition in global market
Three distinct regional market dynamics can be identified in terms of the level of competition in the global market, which remains high, though it varies across regions. Broadly speaking, in the United States, competition is largely domestic, with local producers competing primarily within the internal market. In the European Union, the landscape is more mixed, characterized by intense domestic competition alongside a limited presence of imports from third countries. In contrast, in the rest of the world, competition is significantly more intense, with global players actively competing across multiple markets.
Rising costs of energy exerting pressure across the industry
At the same time, rising energy costs – particularly impacting steel producers – along with increasing scrap prices driven by higher oil and transportation costs, have exerted additional pressure across the industry. These factors are contributing to heightened competition globally, as producers strive to maintain margins and market share in an increasingly challenging cost environment. The market has accepted cost-driven price increases up to a certain degree. The uncertainty is in the second-order consequences. As with any supply-side shock, the market may have to rebuild around new supply routes, new energy costs and changing raw material availability, and it is still too early to judge how the wider economy will react. It will be necessary to wait and see what impact the ceasefire in the Iran war – provided it holds – will have on easing the surges in costs and if it will bring about a badly-needed return to something approaching normality for business and trade.
Current market environment very unstable, dependent on US war-related policy decisions
The current market environment can be best described as highly unstable and deeply influenced by geopolitical developments. In particular, the global economy has been increasingly dependent on policy decisions made by the United States administration in relation to the war against Iran, though some hope is now offered by the implementation of the ceasefire. Recent developments have intensified market volatility, with rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures creating a highly uncertain outlook. In this context, market conditions remain fragile and unpredictable, with future stability largely contingent on geopolitical outcomes and policy direction in the coming months.
Outlook for next quarter remains uncertain
The outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain, primarily due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market direction will largely depend on how the situation evolves in the near term.
If the ceasefire holds…
Should the ceasefire hold, an improvement in demand can be expected, leading to a more positive outlook and gradual market stabilization. However, were the ceasefire to break down and war to be renewed, the risk of a significant economic slowdown will increase. In such a scenario, many economies could enter recessionary conditions, with potential project delays or cancellations and an overall challenging business environment. Other than the military-industrial complex, all other industrial sectors would be negatively affected.
