Upward pressure mounts on European longs prices, but demand fails to take off
According to market participants, the upward pressure in the European long steel market is becoming increasingly tangible. However, market fundamentals are not strong enough to suggest a long-term trend, as the price increases appear to be mostly cost-driven.
“The market in Germany is picking up and prices will certainly increase,” one market participant stated. “However, competition from traders in the local market is strong, as inventories were still full of material purchased at lower prices after the summer period,” another commented.
As for Poland, a wide gap has been reported between domestic rebar prices. Sources have reported prices from different mills ranging from a low of around €600/mt delivered to a high of around €655/mt delivered. On the one hand, cost pressure would push prices upward, and mills are reported to be seeking to raise both rebar and wire rod prices by around €20/mt. At the same time, however, demand remains weak and market uncertainty is preventing mills from taking a clear position.
Although September has historically been a month when attempts are made to raise prices following the end of the summer low season, this year energy, gas, transport and logistics costs are weighing more heavily on the market. “Visibility is very, very limited,” a source commented, “also because, at the end of the day, demand always determines the trend. Once the outlook for October becomes clearer, we will have a better idea of how the year will end.”
In the import segment, Turkey has increased prices by around €20/mt week on week for both rebar and wire rod, bringing them to €585-590/mt CFR and €590-600/mt CFR, respectively, though no sales have been reported. As for exports from Egypt, prices have been reported at around €560/mt CFR for rebar and €580/mt CFR for wire rod, up by €15-20/mt compared to the last reported levels on September 4.
€1 = $1.15
Author: SteelOrbis Editorial Team
Moderate HRC imports continue in EU despite emerging CBAM payment concerns
European customers continue to show moderate interest in HRC imports from several destinations, aiming to secure their requirements for the coming period. Some volumes, according to sources, have been freshly booked from Turkey and India.
Overall, while CBAM-related payments are expected to start in 2027, the default values will be taken into consideration for 50 percent of CBAM certificates until there are verified values available in the market. “The European Commission issued a document stating that, until you have actual emission values certified, you must apply with the country’s default values. That means that many players wanted to apply with reduced (estimated) values, but now they will have to pay fully, and then after verification you´ll be refunded the difference,” a source commented to SteelOrbis. Others believe that there will be no refund per se, but the government will return the difference via certain tax or energy-related incentives or will consider them in the calculations for the following periods. “There is a lot of confusion because in some cases people were expecting to pay €50-60/mt CBAM for slabs, but now they will have to pay triple that,” a trader mentioned. “That means huge money frozen and I’m not sure some small traders can deal with that because they have to make upfront payment of millions of euros,” another source opined.
Imports have continued while the market is trying to evaluate the current situation amid reports that there is a certain lobby trying to ease the ongoing situation regarding CBAM payments in the EU. According to sources, some medium lots have been booked from Turkey at €565-575/mt CFR without duty, which is €10-15/mt higher than the previous deals. Moreover, several new deals have been reported from India at $700-710/mt CFR (for the fourth quarter), up from the earlier $680-690/mt CFR, while others have confirmed sales at up to $720/mt CFR for small lots. Egypt is also expected to sell some volumes, with the latest offers heard at $725/mt CFR, while buyers’ price ideas are around $700-710/mt CFR.
In the domestic HRC market, mills’ highest targets are yet to be accepted, with buyers mainly being cautious and buying just to meet their minimal needs. In Italy, price levels are at €740-750/mt delivered, with some deals €10/mt lower also taking place, but overall supply is not plentiful with only some October volumes available. In Spain and the northern EU countries, workable prices have remained at €735-745/mt ex-works, in line with the levels of earlier this week. In the meantime, mills’ highest targets have remained at €770-790/mt ex-works depending on the region. In central Europe, reasonable price levels are at €760-775/mt delivered and effective, while some separate suppliers, according to sources, might be willing to deal at €740/mt CPT base.
Author: SteelOrbis Editorial Team