Stegra selects three new logistics partners in Europe
7 Steel UK and Heathrow sign memorandum of understanding on steel supply
Worldsteel cuts global steel demand forecast on China slowdown
Worldsteel has lowered its global steel demand growth forecast for 2026 to flat from a previous estimate of 0.3% growth, citing a downturn in China and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
The association also decreased its 2027 growth outlook to 1.7% from 2.2%.
In its latest Short Range Outlook, published Oct. 12, worldsteel forecast global steel demand at 1,722 million metric tons in 2026, virtually unchanged from 2025, before rising to 1,752 million mt in 2027.
“The trajectory we set out in April holds, but the anticipated recovery is proving slower and more gradual than we had expected,” said Alfonso Hidalgo De Calcerrada, chairperson of the worldsteel Economics Committee. “Almost the whole of that revision is a China story.
“Outside China, demand grows by 1.5% this year and accelerates to 4% in 2027 — precisely the rate we projected six months ago, and one rarely seen in recent times,” De Calcerrada continued. “The recovery we described in April is therefore not weaker; its momentum is being masked by the scale of China’s structural contraction and compounded by energy-market disruptions stemming from ongoing instability in the Middle East.”
China demand set to contract
Chinese steel demand is now expected to contract by 2% in 2026, a downward revision from April’s forecast, as property investment continues to decline and infrastructure spending remains in negative territory. Manufacturing demand has grown on the back of strong exports, but has not been sufficient to offset weakness elsewhere.
In 2027, the contraction is expected to narrow to 1%, with the real estate downturn forecast to decelerate while manufacturing sustains moderate growth, although trade frictions represent a significant risk.
Outside China, the picture is markedly more positive. India remains the world’s fastest-growing major steel market, with demand forecast to expand by 7.9% in 2026 to 172.4 million mt and by 8% in 2027 to 186.2 million mt, driven by infrastructure-led construction, private real estate, renewables investment, and automotive growth.
The Gulf Cooperation Council presents the starkest regional contrast. After GCC steel demand surged 17.7% in 2025, worldsteel now expects a fall of about 11% in 2026, as the ongoing Middle East conflict has deferred project awards, construction starts and financing decisions. The association forecast an 11.3% rebound in 2027, contingent on the security situation resolving and the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Vietnam is another standout, with double-digit steel demand growth projected in 2026, pushing apparent steel use to about 30 million mt for the first time, supported by record residential and commercial construction activity.
Outside of China and the GCC, steel demand is forecast to grow 1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. EU apparent steel use is expected to decline 0.3% this year before recovering 3.1% in 2027, partly reflecting stock-building ahead of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism taking effect in 2026. US steel demand is projected to grow 2% in 2026, driven by data center investment and energy infrastructure, with about 1.5% growth expected in 2027. Japan and South Korea are both set for modest recoveries, with neither market returning to pre-downturn volumes within the forecast horizon.
Author: Annalisa Villa
Inside CBAM’s first year: what traders, importers and policymakers learned
In this week’s episode of Energy Evolution, host Eklavya Gupte takes stock of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism nearly a year into its definitive phase, and asks a pointed question: Is it working?
To answer this, he is joined by Alwyn Hopkins, director and sustainability leader for Industrials and Energy at EY UK; Dan Maleski, director at the EY Global Tax Center of Excellence; and Irina Breilean, senior carbon price reporter at Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.
Together, they examine how punishing default emissions values are rewriting the economics of steel, fertilizer and other carbon-intensive imports, how traders are building proxy hedges to manage exposure to volatile EU carbon prices, and why 2027 will mark a decisive shift from compliance accounting to live cash flow pressure.
The episode also looks beyond Europe, tracing how CBAM is accelerating the development of carbon pricing regimes from India to Brazil, and what the UK’s own version of the mechanism, launching in January 2027, means for global trade flows.
Energy Evolution Podcast from S&P Global Commodity Insights
Author: Eklavya Gupte, Irina Breilean
Turkey and EU to cooperate in green transition and CBAM
Turkey and the EU confirmed their willingness to cooperate in the green transformation of their economies during the third Turkey-EU High Level Dialogue on Trade meeting held in Brussels, according to a statement from the Turkish Ministry of Trade Oct. 15.
The statement said that the two regions confirmed their will to act together in new areas of cooperation, such as the circular economy and the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM).
To comply with the EU’s climate change policies, Turkey announced its Emission Trading System (ETS) Aug. 27, which was published in the Official Journal, to expand regulation, monitoring, reporting, and verification processes to align with the EU’s ETS.
“In the context of the Industrial Acceleration Law (Made in EU), which has recently been at the center of our agenda with the EU, our legitimate expectations to protect our integrated supply chains connected by the 30-year Customs Union and to have our country included in this process as an equal partner,” have also been discussed, the Ministry said.
The EU and Turkey underlined the strategic importance of their trade relationship and reaffirmed their shared interest in promoting growth, competitiveness, and resilient value chains, they said in a joint press statement following the meeting.
There were, however, concerns among Turkish steelmakers that the new EU steel safeguard measures introduced in July and the EU’s Industrial Acceleration Law could result in a notable loss of Turkey’s steel and automotive exports to the region.
Noting that the loss in steel product exports to the EU, Turkey’s traditional top export destination, could reach around 4 million mt/year, Turkish Steel Producers’ Association said in a recent statement to Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, that, although the impact had only been partially reflected during January-August, total steel exports to the EU had already declined by 21.7% year over year to 3.2 million mt.
Platts assessed Turkish exported rebar at $615/mt FOB Turkey Oct. 14, unchanged day over day.
Author: Cenk Can
European CRC and HDG mills hold offers firm despite subdued demand
European CRC and HDG prices have remained largely unchanged over the past two weeks, with mills holding their offers firm on the back of elevated HRC prices. Buyers, however, have stepped up pressure for discounts amid subdued consumption. Import prices have also been broadly stable, but trading has remained slow, with only sporadic deals reported as CBAM-related uncertainty and other trade restrictions continue to weigh on purchasing decisions.
More specifically, in the domestic CRC market, most offers for mills in Italy and northern Europe have been voiced at €850-880/mt ex-works and up to €890-920/mt ex-works across the EU, the same as two weeks ago. However, tradable prices have been estimated at around €850-860/mt ex-works.
In the import segment, offers for CRC have remained rare this week, with indicative prices settling at €730-740/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, mainly the same as two weeks ago. Very few offers have been heard on CFR basis this week, due to AD duty and considering that customers are unwilling to take the risk of purchasing without clarity on CBAM costs. In particular, offers for ex-India CRC have been voiced at around $735/mt CFR, which translates to €727/mt CFR.
Furthermore, offers for import CRC on DDP basis, including CBAM costs, have been estimated at €870-890/mt DDP, with offers mainly coming from South Korea.
In the HDG segment, mills both in Italy and in the north of Europe have been targeting €850-870/mt and up to €880/mt ex-works in some cases, the same as two weeks ago, while domestic tradable prices have settled at €840-850/mt ex-works in both regions.
According to sources, European customers are rumoured to have booked sizable volumes or around 100,000 mt of HDG from Vietnam over the past few weeks, at around $795-800/mt CFR, which translates to €710-715/mt CFR, while offers have been voiced at $810/mt CFR this week. Besides, last week a deal for ex-Vietnam Z100-150 HDG was reported at €920/mt DDP.
$1 = €0.89
Author: SteelOrbis Editorial Team
ArcelorMittal commits €300 million to Dunkirk steel project, targets spring 2027 tests for new line in Mardyck
ArcelorMittal has announced progress on its €1.3 billion low-carbon steelmaking project at Dunkirk and €500 million electrical steel expansion at Mardyck, France, supporting emissions reductions across its operations and customers’ industries.
Dunkirk EAF project secures €300 million in commitments
The Dunkirk investment includes a 2 million mt/year electric arc furnace (EAF) and a ladle metallurgy furnace, with preparatory work underway and €300 million already committed to site preparation and long-lead equipment and supplies.
Using recycled steel, hot-briquetted iron or direct reduced iron, and pig iron, the new production route is expected to emit approximately 0.6 mt of CO₂ per mt of steel, around two-thirds below the blast furnace route. Permit applications have been submitted, with public consultation scheduled to begin on October 15.
Mardyck targets additional line tests in spring 2027
Mardyck’s first three electrical steel lines began operating in March, as previously reported by SteelOrbis, employing 200 people. Equipment installation for an annealing-pickling line and a reversing mill is nearing completion, with initial tests expected in spring 2027.
The additional lines will complete the integrated production chain supplying electrical steels for motors and generators.
Author: SteelOrbis Editorial Team
WV Stahl: Germany’s steel demand to recover through 2027, but industry challenges persist
The German Steel Federation (WV Stahl) has warned that Germany’s steel market remains under pressure despite projections of a recovery in demand, as global steel consumption is expected to return to growth in 2027, according to the latest Short Range Outlook published by the World Steel Association (worldsteel).
According to worldsteel, Germany’s apparent steel consumption is expected to increase from 29.2 million mt in 2025 to 30.3 million mt in 2026, up 3.8 percent year on year, before rising by a further six percent to 32.1 million mt in 2027. However, WV Stahl emphasized that the projected growth reflects a recovery from historically low demand levels rather than a sustained improvement in market conditions. Germany is expected to rank eighth among the world’s largest steel-consuming countries in 2027, compared with sixth place in 2017.
Faster industrial and infrastructure investments needed
Kerstin Maria Rippel, CEO of WV Stahl, stated that the outlook does not signal an end to the challenges facing German industry. She stressed the need to accelerate industrial investments and improve the conditions for domestic production to ensure that the projected recovery develops into a sustainable turnaround.
Rippel highlighted the importance of planned infrastructure investments in supporting steel demand. Although their full impact is expected to emerge gradually, she called for faster implementation of projects and greater preference for products manufactured within the EU to support European industrial production and employment.
International competition and trade diversion remain major concerns
Meanwhile, Rippel warned that international competitive pressure remains high, particularly as declining steel demand in China coincides with rising consumption in other regions. Against this backdrop, she emphasized the importance of protecting the European steel market against trade diversion and unfair competition.
Rippel welcomed the European Commission’s efforts to introduce a new steel trade defense instrument and establish conditions for more competitive electricity prices. However, she stressed that further improvements and national implementation are necessary. According to her, competitive energy costs, effective trade defense measures and preferential treatment for European-made products in public investments will be essential to ensure that the anticipated recovery in steel demand benefits production facilities in Germany.
Author: SteelOrbis Editorial Team
European domestic HRC prices remain steady as sluggish demand limits momentum
Prices in the domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) market in Europe remained largely unchanged on Thursday October 15 with modest demand limiting momentum.
Market participants agreed that customer stocks remain high with key consuming sectors such as automotive not rendering enough support amid a gloomy economic outlook in the region, whereas hot-rolled sheet prices remain low.
In such conditions HRC prices in Europe are largely moving sideways.
A trading source reported transactions from the market leader taking place in Northwestern Europe at €760 per tonne delivered, which is netting back to €740 per tonne ex-works.
Another buyer source provided an indication of tradeable levels within the range of €740-760 per tonne ex-works, adding that some small-tonnaged deals are coming through at the upper end of the range.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was calculated at €745 ($832.40) per tonne on October 15, down by €1 per tonne from €746 per tonne on October 14.
The index was up by €5 per tonne week on week and up by €6.67 per tonne month on month.
The Italian market was also described as relatively quiet. This was despite limited availability of the material as practically every supplier in the country is facing production issues.
Acciaria d’Italia is soon to stop its blast furnace. Metinvest’s Ferriera Valsider has a significant backlog following the resumption of production in early September after announcing force majeure. And the market leader Arvedi has reportedly one of its hot-rolling lines stopped due to technical issues.
This, however, is not preventing customers from submitting low bids. One of the sellers reported on October 15 that customers placed bids as low as €730-740 per tonne delivered, which is netting back to €710-725 per tonne ex-works. At the same time, offers come at €760 per tonne delivered and above, which is equivalent to €740-745 per tonne ex-works plus.
Nevertheless, many buyers admit that if a customer needs material it will have to pay what mills are asking for due to the reduced availability of the material.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €743.75 per tonne on October 15, down by €1.25 per tonne day on day.
The index was up by €3.75 per tonne week on week and by €7.92 per tonne month on month.
The import market was extremely quiet this week with Turkish and Indian quotas being already significantly exceeded.
Some Indian offers were heard coming within the range of $750-770 (€670-689) per tonne cost and freight (CFR), but sources reported there is no interest in material considering the situation with the quota.
Egyptian HRC was said to be available at $750 per tonne (€670 per tonne) CFR including $25-30 per tonne Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) allow.
Italian rebar prices hold steady despite weak demand, rising costs; MEGASA eyes Stahlwerk Thüringen acquisition
Italian rebar prices remained stable in the week to Wednesday October 14, with weak demand, rising energy and logistics costs pressuring prices, sources told Fastmarkets during the week.
Deals and indications in Northern Italy were reported within €730-760 ($816-849) per tonne ex-works, with one buyer expecting prices to reach €770 per tonne ex-works due to higher energy costs. However, no transactions were confirmed at this level.
“Prices are holding up and they [producers] are threatening new increases,” the same source said, while adding: “Energy costs are rising more and more, and some operators have already told me that current pricing is still insufficient to cover production costs.”
A distributor source said that customers were not willing to buy big quantities at €760 per tonne ex-works in the North yet.
“Demand is so and so, at this price level customers don’t want to buy big quantity, so we are going on day by day, without big orders,” the same source said, with another market source adding that energy and logistics costs remained under pressure.
Meanwhile, in Southern Italy, latest deals and offers were reported in the range of €750-780 per tonne ex-works during the week.
A buyer source said that some very small transactions were possible to achieve for €790 per tonne ex-works, but this level was not widely accepted in the market as workable yet.
A producer in the region said this was the new minimum level for transactions, but there was a lack of details about such orders and a lack of corroboration among other sources about this higher price.
“Gas and electricity are driving up inflation and costs. Prices must be adjusted accordingly,” the same producer said.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, exw Italy, was stable week on week at €730-780 per tonne on October 14.
In Spain, a trade source said that rebar prices remained stable at €750 per tonne delivered. “Although, when [the] winter starts, usually a price reduction comes due to less of works, but let’s see,” the same source said.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Spain, remained unchanged at €750 per tonne on October 14.
In Northern Europe, latest deals for rebar were heard at €660-680 per tonne delivered during the week, in line with indications in the market, while offers reached €690 per tonne delivered, sources said.
“Italians are keeping prices up in Italy, while selling their unused capacity elsewhere at (much) lower prices,” a buyer source in the region said.
This was reflected in Fastmarkets’ latest weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europe, which was €660-690 per tonne on October 14, down from €715-720 per tonne the previous week.
Sources indicated workable levels for wire rod in Southern Europe within €670-680 per tonne delivered, unchanged from previous levels.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality), domestic, delivered Southern Europe, was €670-680 per tonne on Wednesday, stable week on week.
In Northern Europe, wire rod was indicated in the range of €705-715 per tonne delivered, also stable from previous prices heard in the market.
Thus, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality), domestic, delivered Northern Europe, was unchanged week on week at €705-715 per tonne on October 14.
MEGASA targets expansion into German structural steel market
Earlier in the week, on Monday October 12, Brazilian integrated steel producer CSN (Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional) signed a term sheet for the potential sale of Stahlwerk Thüringen to Bipadosa, the holding company of the MEGASA Group, the German steel producer announced in a press release.
Stahlwerk Thüringen is a long steel producer focused on manufacturing structural steel sections, beams and profiles at its site in Unterwellenborn.
The steelmaker has been part of the Brazilian CSN Group since 2012 and has an installed production capacity of 1.1 million tonnes of steel per year, with Europe being its main consumer market, according to company information.
MEGASA (Metalúrgica Galaica) is a Spanish industrial group with many years of experience in the European steel industry. The company focuses on long steel products and operates production sites in Spain, Portugal and France.
Fastmarkets asked Stahlwerk Thüringen and MEGASA about potential changes to operations at the German site, including its product portfolio, capacity and market position, but the companies had not responded by the time of publication.
A Spanish trade source said that they did not expect the potential transaction to have a wider impact on the market.
“Frankly speaking, I do not think so [that there will be wide impact]. Stahlwerk is specialized in profiles and MEGASA only had a small plant for small beams and angles in Zaragoza. So, for them it is a new market,” the same source said on Tuesday October 13.
As part of the sales process, the parties have agreed to an exclusivity period of up to ten weeks, according to Stahlwerk Thüringen’s announcement. During this period, the potential transaction will be reviewed, with any completion subject to customary regulatory approvals, the producer said.
Nia Radenkova in Sofia, Bulgaria, contributed to this article.