Steel prices in Germany will enjoy altogether higher levels in 2027 according to Peter Fertig, MBI Research analyst, at the recent Stahltag event in Frankfurt, organised by MBI Infosource.
According to his forecasts, hot-rolled coil is likely to average at €718/tonne ($816/t) ex-works over the year, with possible highs of €780/t and lows of €660/t.
For cold-rolled coil, he assumes a base scenario of €796/t, within a wider range of between €735-835/t, Kallanish learns from Fertig’s presentation.
For HRC, the estimated values in 2027 would be €40-50/t above those of 2026. For CRC, the increase is more moderate, if compared with the average of €791/t reached until the end of August.
Reviewing the forecast made at last year’s event, Fertig noted that it had been too pessimistic, and that prices performed better than expected. The quantitative models then predicted base scenarios of €595/t for HRC, and €680/t for CRC.
This applies also to the long product groups with rebar and wire rod, which turned out higher than anticipated, by some €20/t for rebar, and some €40/t for wire rod. For 2027, the base scenario foresees €678/t ex-works for rebar, with a worst-case scenario of €630/t, and a best-case scenario of €715/t. For wire rod, the range lies between €725-810/t, with €777/t assumed as the most likely base scenario.
Fertig noted that he had to adjust his mathematical models recently due the distortion brought by factors like the new trade measures and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
“We expect that prices will be nearer to the best-case than the worst-case scenario,” he said.
Author: Christian Koehl
