The European steel market is entering the final quarter of the year amid tightening import quotas, high energy costs and weak demand. Under the new EU measures that came into force on 1 July 2026, steel import quotas were reduced by approximately 47%, while the out-of-quota tariff was increased to 50%. These changes are increasing cost pressures and supply uncertainty for exporters to Europe, including Turkish steel producers.
As of 19 October, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices stood at €750/t in Germany, €740–750/t in Italy and Poland, and €750/t in Spain, on an EXW basis. Cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices were reported at €855/t in Germany, €850/t in Italy, €870/t in Poland and €840/t in Spain. Hot-dip galvanized (HDG) prices stood at €830/t in Germany, €835/t in Italy, €865/t in Poland and €840/t in Spain, on an EXW basis. Plate prices were reported at €840/t in Germany and €770/t in Italy.
Although European producers are attempting to push prices higher, weak and sluggish demand is making increases difficult to implement. According to market feedback from Spain, reduced imports could leave the European market facing a potential supply shortfall of approximately 2 million tonnes. This could make price increases inevitable in the medium term, although significant rises are not expected before the second quarter of 2027. The outlook suggests that weak demand will continue to limit prices in the short term, while tightening supply could become a more decisive factor over time.
Meanwhile, the gap between high energy costs and weak demand is widening, particularly in Northern Italy, where electric-arc furnace (EAF) steel mills are concentrated. Producers are struggling to pass rising costs on to customers, raising concerns that some mills may be forced to suspend production. Geopolitical tensions and global trade disputes are adding to market uncertainty.
Outlook: Weak demand is expected to constrain price increases in the short term, while the impact of import quotas on supply is likely to become more pronounced over time. Energy costs and the potential supply shortfall could be key factors shaping price movements, particularly as the market approaches the second quarter of 2027.
