European domestic and import flat steel market went silent on Wednesday July 1 digesting the news on allocation of import quotas that came to light a day earlier.
Although total quotas were widely known well in advance, the distribution of volumes among countries remained an intriguing point that had kept everyone’s attention for months, as many buyers booked material to be custom-cleared starting July 1, 2026, without knowing the country-specific allocations until the very last moment.
Some buyers even were heard to cancel deals in June in order to avoid possible risks. Among cancelled bookings Fastmarkets heard hot-rolled coil cargoes from Algeria and Indonesia.
Algeria eventually received no country-specific quota for HRC and will be able to sell material within the FTA Quota – Other countries allocation on first-come, first-served basis.
Among the most dramatic changes was a 60% reduction in Turkey’s HRC quota to just 642,249 tonnes per year, from 1.59 million tonnes under the previous safeguard regime. The UK’s quota was also cut to 153,924 tonnes from 559,177 tonnes under the previous regime.
In the cold-rolled coil segment, some of the largest cuts affected Indian material, with the quota reduced to 269,974 tonnes per year from 655,822 tonnes under the previous regime. The UK quota was cut to 79,338 tonnes from 351,003 tonnes.
Overall, the HRC import quota under Category 1A was reduced to 5.2 million tonnes from 7.7 million tonnes; CRC under Category 2 fell to 1.5 million tonnes from 3.9 million tonnes; and coated coil quotas under Category 4A fell to 1.6 million tonnes from 2.4 million tonnes.
One of the European importers noted that he expects the major effect on prices to be felt in CRC segment due to significant quota reduction and insufficient capacities within Europe.
Under those conditions, market participants on both sides paused to digest the new information.
The number of new import offers as well as inquiries was close to zero.
“We are not interested in new import activity now as we are trying to save the company from the cargo on water,” one trader said.
“To be honest, we are trying to sort issues we have after country-quotas announcement and new offers are not my first topic these days,” another European buyer said.
Some recent HRC offers to Southern Europe were heard at €580-610 ($660-694) per tonne CFR from Turkey. Indian offers were heard at the equivalent of €570-585 per tonne CFR, while Vietnamese material was offered at €570 per tonne CFR.
As a result, Fastmarkets weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil import, cfr main port Southern Europe widened to €570-610 per tonne on July 1 versus €595-600 per tonne on June 24.
The corresponding assessment for steel hot-rolled coil import, cfr main port Northern Europe remained stable week on week at €530-600 per tonne on Wednesday due to the lack of input.
The European domestic HRC market also went quiet, with sellers taking a wait-and-see stance before announcing new offers.
Fastmarkets daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €681.88 per tonne on July 1, down by €1.25 per tonne day on day.
The index was down by €2.29 per tonne week on week and by €8.12 per tonne month on month.
And steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy remained unchanged day on day at €667.50 per tonne on July 1.
The index was down by €1 per tonne week on week and by €10 per tonne month on month.
Market participants broadly expect prices to increase across flat steel segment. However, HRC buyers do not anticipate any dramatic short-term price movements, given the persistently weak demand and the approaching holiday season, which is expected to further dampen market activity.
