Labor Day holiday are being celebrated in most European states, excluding the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands, leaving the steel sector very quiet.
Market participants broadly agree that the price gains seen in the first quarter of 2026 were driven by the region’s evolving regulations – notably the new trade measures set to take effect in July and the implementation of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – but domestic HRC prices now appear to be stabilizing, with limited further upside expected in the near term.
“No changes, no market and no bookings, apart from back-to-back [deals],” a source in the Netherlands said.
Market participants also acknowledged that some June-delivery tonnes remain to be placed, but few expect to see much of a pick-up in demand helping to clear it, with underlying buying activity subdued and showing no signs of turning.
But some European steelmakers sitting on unsold June-delivery tonnages have been forced to let go of those volumes at below the €700 ($819) per tonne ex-works threshold, sources said.
And a buyer in Northern Europe told Fastmarkets that mills with remaining second-quarter HRC still on their books were now moving it on at around €680–700 per tonne ex-works.
Looking ahead to July, initial offers for HRC deliveries into Germany and the Benelux region came in at €730-750 per tonne delivered – equivalent to €715-735 per tonne ex-works – earlier this week.
But buyer appetites are limited, sources said.
“Mills are trying to hold the line on pricing, but there’s virtually no traction,” a distributor source said, adding that steel service centers were refusing to absorb prices at the current levels, largely because they have no room to push those costs further down the supply chain.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was calculated at €702.50 per tonne on Friday May 1, down by €1.50 per tonne from €704.00 per tonne on Thursday April 30.
The index was down by €7.50 per tonne week on week and by €10.58 per tonne month on month.
Prices have recovered by over €100 per tonne over the past seven months and the index averaged €712.67 per tonne at the midpoint in March 2026, compared with a monthly average of €589.40 in October 2025.
Despite the recent decline, however, most industry stakeholders said the current downturn was likely to be only temporary and expect domestics prices to rise later in the year, supported by the trade regulations.
However, slow real demand was seen as a major stumbling block for any substantial rebound, sources said.
“Real demand is [likely to be] quite dull for the rest of the year; but CBAM and the new trade regime will probably help to secure some uptick in [HRC] prices – due to the shift away from imports,” a buyer source said.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €695 per tonne ex-works on Friday, unchanged from Thursday.
The index was down by €5.00 per tonne week on week but stable month on month.
The Italian market was totally quiet on Friday due to the Labor Day public holiday.
Earlier this week, local Italian mill offers for June delivery were heard at around €720 per tonne delivered (€705 per tonne ex-works). But most sources, including sellers, put the realistic transaction level in Italy at €680-700 per tonne ex-works
Some went further, suggesting that €700 per tonne delivered (€685 ex-works) represented the ceiling of what the market will actually bear – with deals also possible closer to €690 per tonne delivered, or €675 per tonne ex-works. These lower levels are not showing up on formal mill price lists, but they reflect the level at which actual trades are happening.
Turkish coil was booked at €590-600 per tonne CFR to Italy earlier in the week, including the anti-dumping duty, and a medium-sized cargo of Algerian HRC was sold to the Iberian market at around $765 per tonne CFR.
A large tonnage of Egyptian HRC was sold into Spain at around €618 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty. The definitive dumping duty for Egyptian flat products was set at 11.7% in September 2025.
