European steel market participants expect prices to increase and production and inventory levels to remain steady in May, data from the latest Platts European Steel Sentiment Survey showed.
Price index
The overall price index for May stood at 75 points, down from 92.50 in April, indicating that market participants still expect prices to increase, but at a slower pace than last month.
Trader, stockholder and service center sentiment on price was measured at 75 points, with producers also sharing the same opinion.
This comes after steel markets, particularly flat markets, have seen a cooling in prices, largely driven by high stock levels and weak end-user demand. Buyers have adopted a wait-and-see approach to evaluate the new safeguard measures, which are yet to be finalized, and as a result, activity has dwindled.
Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed domestic HRC in Northern Europe May 6 at Eur695/metric ton ex-works Ruhr, down Eur15/mt month over month. Platts assessed domestic HRC in Southern Europe at Eur690/mt ex-works Italy, down Eur5/mt over the same period.
Platts assessed medium sections in Europe at Eur820/mt delivered, up Eur30/mt month over month.
| Month: | December 2025 | January 2026 | February 2026 | March 2026 | April 2026 | May 2026 |
| Index: | 70.83 | 70.83 | 76.88 | 91.67 | 92.50 | 75 |
Production index
The overall production index stood at 47.50 points, down from 61.25 points in April, highlighting a potential slowdown in output as the market approaches the typically subdued summer months.
Trader, stockholder and service center sentiment decreased month over month, from 60 points in April to 45 in May. Producer sentiment was recorded at 50 points, down from 62.50 over the same period.
| Month: | December 2025 | January 2026 | February 2026 | March 2026 | April 2026 | May 2026 |
| Index: | 37.50 | 37.50 | 68.75 | 58.33 | 61.25 | 47.50 |
Inventory index
The overall index for inventory was measured at 50.83 points, largely unchanged from the 52.50 points seen in April, highlighting that market participants expect stock levels to remain steady.
This was made up of 60 points from traders, service centers and stockholders, and about 42 points from producers.
Sources have continued to observe high stock levels in the market, as buyers purchased a lot of material back in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 in anticipation of new regulatory measures.
However, market participants also said buyers will eventually need to restock, or else stock levels will fall, which could increase demand for domestic material, given the current lack of import availability.
| Month: | December 2025 | January 2026 | February 2026 | March 2026 | April 2026 | May 2026 |
| Index: | 25 | 25 | 53.75 | 33.33 | 52.50 | 50.83 |
Road ahead
Despite slightly weaker expectations for May, participants said that when the European Commission announces the finalized quota volumes for each country, the market could expect further price increases, as buyers will be able to resume purchasing with a bit more certainty.
Even when considering CBAM and safeguard quota risks, some buy-side sources suggested certain mills in Turkey, North Africa and Asia could still remain competitive, but for now, it is a waiting game.
Author: Riley Waters
