The factors influencing northwestern European coil prices this year are so wide ranging that mills’ and customers’ expectations regarding future price trends are diverging increasingly.
Steelmakers point primarily to limited import opportunities, higher production costs, and stricter European trade protection measures to justify price increases, writes Dutch service centre Noviostaal in a bulletin to customers. Buyers, on the other hand, are pointing at weak end-user demand, fierce competition between distributors (see Kallanish 20 May 2026) and still high stock levels within the supply chain – and therefore resisting price increases.
In this context, Noviostaal notes that price levels for cold-rolled and hot-dip galvanized coil remain relatively stable due to limited availability within certain product groups.
For both HDG and CRC, sources from mills and buyers contacted by Kallanish largely agree on a current range of €800-830/tonne ($831-967) ex-works. CRC/HDG prices seem somewhat more stable than for hot-rolled coil, which in numerous deals reported since April dipped below the €700/t mark that was successfully consolidated earlier.
One mill source agrees that prices for HDG/CRC are quite stable, and he finds that so are “demand and activity, as supply is tight due to new safeguards”. This, along with higher energy and raw materials prices and the EU safeguard replacement measure support stable or increasing HDG prices, despite a slow construction market, he believes.
On the buyer side, sources are not so sure. One trader flatly dismisses the possibility of prices rising. “Even if the mils are maintaining pressure, the issue is the demand – far too weak,” he says. He also notes customers are getting more familiar with CBAM management and perceive it as less of a risk. He points at some mill capacity restarts in France, Poland and Spain, which will put more pressure on the market.
A manager of a Benelux-based interior construction firm notes that, in view of the new EU quotas and CBAM, his company decided to increase stock levels and ratio from EU suppliers. This decision may have been taken by other end-user companies that need reliable quality. On the whole, however, many observers believe inventories are still well-filled from earlier purchases, no matter if domestic or from import, in anticipation of the EU’s import measures.
A buyer of a German processor mentions a high target announced by mills earlier, €880/t, “which is delusional; we are now between €800 and €820, and will stay there. Maybe see an increase in autumn, after inventories have been depleted over the summer”.
