2019 German steel demand/output to fall slightly: study

Steel mill output in Germany is anticipated to fall in 2019 according to a new study by the RWI Essen institute, monitored by Kallanish.

Mill production in Germany in 2019 is anticipated to fall by -1.8% from last year, according to the study. This will mean a similar decline to that witnessed last year, when mills’ crude steel production fell by -2%, to 42.44 million tonnes. Production of rolled products is also seen reducing by -1.4%, after it had dipped by -2.6% in 2018.

While global steel production will continue to rise by an equivalent 1.8%, the pressure caused by international trade barriers and currently-reduced demand from the automotive industry will be detrimental for Germany’s mills.

Demand is seen declining by -0.6%, and effective orders by even more at -1.8% due to well-filled inventories, writes author Roland Döhrn.

Mill utilisation will fall only slightly, but still remain at a relatively high level of 84%. By comparison, global utilisation will be 75%, Döhrn says. He reasons that a slower domestic economy will mean lower occupation at mills, but will be manageable, given that imports will also be reduced. A downswing in the global economy, however, would have more pronounced consequences, he writes. He summarises by declaring that “… despite a weakening economy, Germany’s steel industry has held up quite well so far.“