European HRC market slows for summer; prices steady despite higher offers
Trading was seasonally slow across Europe with market sources expecting to see little change in the coming weeks due to the vacation season.
In the week to July 25, major European mills pushed up their offer prices for October-delivery HRC to €590 per tonne ex-works or delivered, but buyers remained largely skeptical about the chances of those higher offers being sealed in deals, citing poor demand.
Supplier sources, meanwhile, reported an uptick in inquiries for HRC on Tuesday, with delivery timelines extending into the fourth quarter of 2025 and into the first quarter of 2026.
Despite the flat prices on Tuesday, supplier sources said they had “satisfactory” order books and were hoping to achieve even higher prices for fourth-quarter delivery HRC on restocking activity, a lack of imports and tighter domestic supplies.
According to one supplier source, the potential rebound in HRC prices will be driven by the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is expected to increase the cost of imported coil, along with the implementation of new trade measures to replace the current safeguard measures. As a result, they said, many buyers will be looking to secure European HRC for late 2025 and early 2026.
This trend was echoed by several small- and medium-sized buyers in the region, who told Fastmarkets they had stopped ordering overseas coil because of concerns over the impact of the CBAM and existing safeguard measures.
“Mills are counting on the trade measures and lower coil availability to support the uptrend, but the reality is that the demand is still falling short of supply and consumption is not growing,” a stockholder in Germany told Fastmarkets.
Buyer ideas about the tradable level came in at about €550-560 per tonne ex-works.
But one buyer source said a bid at €550 per tonne ex-works had been rejected by a mill in the Benelux region.
“Buyers keep saying they will not pay anything above €550-560 ex-works, but there are no actual deals [being done] at such levels now,” a mill source said.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €558.33 per tonne on Tuesday, down slightly by €0.67 per tonne from €559.00 per tonne on Monday.
The Northern European index was up by €3.33 per tonne week on week, but was down by €7.30 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €525.83 per tonne on Thursday, up by just €1.45 per tonne from €524.38 per tonne on Wednesday.
The index was up by €5.41 per tonne week on week, but down by €42.87 per tonne month on month.
Sources said, that following price-rise announcements in the week to July 25, there was an uptick in inquiries because buyers were trying to “collect orders” at the previous prices around €520-530 per tonne ex-works.
At the same time, there was a brief surge in activity in the Italian coil market, with some buyers rushing to secure volumes at previous price levels of €520–530 per tonne ex-works.
But those earlier prices are no longer available, a supplier source said “because they reflect market conditions from two weeks ago.”
New offers, came in at €540-550 per tonne ex-works, with some suppliers still having only limited availability of September delivery HRC.
For HRC tonnages of around 1,000 tonnes, one seller estimated the tradable price at €530 per tonne ex-works.
It still remains to be seen if higher offers will be traded in September, sources said.
Import offers have been broadly steady recently, but there were some signs of higher offers amid cautious optimism in China.
In the week to July 25, a small cargo of Turkish HRC was sold into Italy at €495 per tonne CFR, including import duty. And on July 29, new offers were reported at around €510 per tonne CFR, including the duty.
But sources said that Turkish suppliers were currently more focused on domestic sales.
An HRC cargo from India was heard sold into Italy at €490 per tonne CFR, sources said, and one market participant reported that HRC from Algeria had changed hands in Italy at €515 per tonne CFR to Italy.
No new offers were reported from Indonesia, however, despite it regularly being the most aggressive overseas supplier to Europe.
“A lot of HRC from Indonesia that was booked at €450-460 per tonne CFR is still in the pipeline,” a buyer in Italy told Fastmarkets.
European Commission tweaks safeguards for steel angles/sections, removes caps for HDG
The changes primarily target product category 17 – angles, shapes and sections of iron or non-alloy steel . They are intended to restore balance in the European steel market by reintroducing country-specific quotas and changing the controversial import cap.
In 2022, following the disruption of Ukrainian steel exports due to Russia’s invasion of the country, the EU had “globalized” quotas for this category to prevent supply shortages.
But a 15% per-country cap introduced in the latest safeguards review in March 2025, intended to prevent market dominance by individual exporters, ended up restricting access for key trading partners such as the UK, Turkey and South Korea, whose historical trade levels exceeded that threshold.
The new regulation removes the 15% cap, reinstates individual quotas for those countries, and reintroduces a residual quota for all other exporters. To ensure fair competition, a new 40% cap per country will apply within the residual quota, the Commission said in a notice seen by Fastmarkets.
Indeed, starting from 2023, market source have noted sharp rises in the deliveries of steel product category 17 [HS codes 7216 31 10, 7216 31 90, 7216 32 11, 7216 32 19, 7216 32 91, 7216 32 99, 7216 33 10, 7216 33 9] from non-traditional suppliers – notably China – to the EU.
For example, in 2023, the East Asian country delivered 16,093 tonnes of steel angle/sections to the bloc, sharply up from just 692 tonnes in 2022, Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data showed.
In January-May 2025, deliveries from China rocketed to 41,933 tonnes. In contrast, for the entire year of 2024, China shipped 20,451 tonnes of steel angles/sections to the region.
The Commission also announced that, due to the mid-quarter implementation of a new regulation, available volumes for the third quarter of 2025 (July–September) will be pro-rated based on unused quota volumes as of August 1, to ensure a smooth transition.
In addition, the regulation removes an “unnecessary” cap on category 4B (Metallic Coated Sheets) and corrects several technical inaccuracies.
Notably, for category 4B – hot-dipped galvanized coil (HDG) – the cap was set at 20% in March 2025, Fastmarkets reported.
HDG is widely used in the automotive and construction industries. Errors in tariff-rate quote distribution had caused oversaturation or under-utilization by some exporters, Fastmarkets understands.
The European Commission said that these adjustments were meant to preserve historical trade flows while maintaining safeguards against import surges that could harm EU industry.
The regulation was immediately binding and applicable in all EU Member States, and shall apply from August 1.
France leads push for new EU steel safeguard
In a critical step to protect the European steel industry, France’s industry minister Marc Ferracci has proposed a comprehensive new trade measure aimed at addressing the growing risks of global steel overcapacity. With the current EU safeguard framework expiring in June 2026, this new initiative seeks to ensure the industry’s long-term competitiveness and capacity utilization.
The non-paper, supported by 11 key EU Member States – including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Spain – outlines a roadmap for replacing the current safeguard regime with a more effective, inclusive system starting January 1, 2026.
According to Mr. Ferracci, global steel overproduction continues to distort European markets, threatening local producers by suppressing prices and saturating demand. The current safeguard system, which imposes duties on imports exceeding tariff-free quotas, is due to expire, leaving the industry vulnerable.
Key proposals in the new framework
Import quotas would remain duty-free up to a fixed volume, maintaining trade flows while shielding local capacity; once quotas are exceeded, customs duties would apply without exception, similar to current measures; the plan would prevent quota monopolization by any specific country, promoting fairer trade distribution; and the new system would extend to steel and iron products not currently covered, ensuring comprehensive protection. Proposed product categories for inclusion are tubes and hollow profiles, grain-oriented electrical steel sheets, granules of pig iron or steel, stainless steel drawn wires, grinding balls, bearing tubes, forged bars, and alloy wires.
Timeline and urgency
The proposal urges the European Commission to develop and present the new framework well before the current safeguard’s expiration in June 2026. The preferred launch date is January 1, 2026, allowing for seamless transition and uninterrupted market protection.
Commenting on the proposal, Axel Eggert, director general of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), said, “We call upon other Member States, the European Parliament and the Commission to fully support this initiative. This is exactly the kind of coordinated action we need to stop the tsunami of cheap steel imports from destroying Europe’s industrial base, jobs, and green transition. Urgency and political determination are now more critical than ever: every day lost is a step further away from European industrial sovereignty.”
