EU traders impose upfront CBAM premium
Some European traders have started imposing a price premium on orders for overseas coil, in anticipation of the CBAM fees that will take effect on deliveries arriving after 1 January 2026.
According to a Dutch market observer, traders for hot-dip galvanized (HDG) coil operate with split quotations: including and excluding expected CBAM costs. CBAM-inclusive quotations are approximately €15-25/tonne ($18-29) above quotes excluding CBAM, he says, and notes that “this makes comparison more complicated and emphasises the importance of tight logistics planning”.
The premium is, of course, “not the full CBAM charge but more an ‘early risk premium’ that mills or traders are currently adding,” he explains to Kallanish. The actual CBAM cost, once fully applied, will probably be much higher, in the range of €80-120/t or more, depending on product origin and carbon intensity.
“But since we are still in the transitional phase – reporting only, no real payments yet – most suppliers are not passing on the full theoretical burden. Instead, they add a limited surcharge to stay competitive while already covering part of the expected future cost,” he explains.
According to a manager of a European mill, traders and overseas mills are expected to split the effective CBAM fee into two thirds for the mill and one third for the trader. The €15-25 is therefore a share to be carried by the European customer, while the trader carries the risk in case the fee turns out to be on the high end.
In Europe, domestic HDG prices are at around €670/t ($784) ex-works. In China, the domestic price in euro terms is at or below €500/t fot (free on truck). With a price gap like that, a Chinese mill could easily take two thirds of a CBAM fee above €100/t and still compete against EU prices.
So far, this tool has been heard used for galvanized coil offers, but CBAM of course applies equally to hot rolled and cold rolled coil. “It is only a matter of time before similar CBAM-inclusive quotations will show up in those markets as well,” the Dutch observer says.
Christian Koehl Germany
EUROMETAL calls on Commission to reduce CBAM uncertainty before 2026
Following two meetings last week in Brussels with DG TAXUD and DG TRADE, EUROMETAL has issued a formal letter today to Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, to raise our growing concerns over the implementation timeline and market implications of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
As discussed during our exchanges with Commission officials, the full legal framework for CBAM’s definitive phase — due to start in January 2026 — is still incomplete.
Critical elements such as:
• Benchmark and default values,
• Methodology for recognising carbon prices paid in third countries,
• Adjustment mechanisms for free ETS allocations,
…remain under discussion, with publication likely only in early 2026.
This is too late for our sector. Many of our members are currently negotiating steel contracts for next year without the clarity or legal certainty needed to plan and price appropriately. The risk of speculative behaviour, contractual disputes, and market distortion is real — especially for SMEs, who may lack the resources to navigate complex and delayed regulations.
In light of this, EUROMETAL has addressed a letter to Commissioner Šefčovič urging the European Commission to:
• Publish provisional values and benchmarks without further delay;
• Clarify the intended scope of downstream product coverage under CBAM;
• Accelerate communication on the export adjustment mechanism;
• Explore a pre-payment or provisional charge at the border to stabilise market expectations;
• Issue an EU-wide statement to reduce uncertainty and give direction before final legal texts are adopted.
While CBAM remains under the lead of DG TAXUD, we believe it has broader implications for trade, competition, and the integrity of the Single Market — and must be addressed with a coordinated approach across Commission services.
European longs market mostly stable, Italian rebar prices decline
The European longs market has remained mostly unchanged this week, as demand is still weak and the market fundamentals have not changed. With Turkey basically remaining on the sidelines and, amid a rather pessimistic market mood, most long product prices in Europe have moved sideways compared to last week.
In Italy, however, local rebar prices have marked a decline by at least €10-20/mt compared to last week, standing at €250-260/mt ex-works base (€515-525/mt ex-works including regular extras), but for orders bigger than 500-1,000 mt or serious buyers, there have also been sales at €240/mt ex-works base (€505/mt ex-works including regular extras). The market reports a slight recovery in demand, with end-customers appreciating the declines, but most players foresee a further price drop in the weeks to come, even if at a slower pace. “The competition is savage. Everyone is trying to go down a little lower,” a spokesperson at an Italian mill said. “This will go on until someone decides to stop production, because we currently have a surplus of rebar in the market and the strategy of lowering scrap prices will only work to a certain extent,” he concluded. Rebar consumers are reporting low inventories, and, as soon as product prices show serious signs of a rebound, they will immediately start their race to purchase in order to avoid further price hikes.
In the wire rod segment in Italy, prices have remained unchanged week on week, and October will probably bring stable prices both for drawing quality and for mesh quality, at €585-600/mt delivered and €570-585/mt delivered, respectively. Demand remains moderate, but the market may have touched the bottom or is very near to it.
In the meantime, two of the main steel producers in Italy have published their financial results for 2024, with different outputs. Sources from both of them, however, have claimed that 2025 is already showing better data compared to last year.
In the export market, rebar prices from Spain to UK ports have been reported at €535/mt FOB, down by €5/mt compared to last week. As for imports, prices for long products from Turkey have also remained sideways both for rebar and wire rod, with no change in the euro-dollar exchange rate. Consequently, rebar and wire rod prices from Turkey to southern Europe ports have been reported at €480-485/mt CFR and around €490/mt CFR, respectively. Finally, ex-Indonesia wire rod prices have been reported at around €460/mt CFR, even though some sources have reported the same material being traded in eastern Europe at €565/mt delivered to customer, custom duty paid. This information, however, could not be verified at the time of publication.
€1 = $1.18
EU’s July longs imports surge from Indonesia, China
EU imports of HS code 7214 bar, which includes rebar, ballooned 163% on-year in July to 417,065 tonnes, mainly due to soaring intake from Türkiye, as well as increased imports from China and Ukraine, while Kazakhstan supplied over 32,600t versus zero a year earlier.
Turkish supply surged almost five-fold to 192,449t, as did China-origin intake to 56,186t. Imports from Ukraine surged 150% to 30,697t, Kallanish notes from Eurostat data.
January-July imports rose 27% on-year to 1.44 million tonnes, with Türkiye, China and Ukraine the largest suppliers in that order.
Wire rod imports surged 38% in July to 414,289t, bucking the declining year-to-date trend, mainly due to increased intake from Türkiye and a significant jump in supply from Indonesia. The UK also contributed more.
Türkiye-origin imports increased 24% on-year in July to 137,503t, while Indonesia-origin supply soared 289% to 96,593t. The UK increased supply 71% to 27,844t.
Unlike with 7214 bar, year-to-date imports of wire rod declined, by 7% on-year to 1.42mt, with Türkiye, Ukraine and the UK the largest suppliers in that order. Indonesia however bucked the trend, more than quadrupling supply to 129,441t.
Adam Smith Austria
Italian plate hikes fail amid sluggish post-holiday restart
Italian heavy plate prices remain stable compared to August, with demand still subdued after the summer lull.
While some producers are considering increases to recover margins, the market is seen as too quiet to sustain price hikes, with uncertainty prevailing. September has so far brought a disappointing post-holiday restart across raw materials, flat and long steel markets, with scrap and certain longs registering price declines, Kallanish notes.
Two producer sources report current lead times of around three weeks. One expects some benefit from declining imports under the EU’s safeguard regime, noting that plate imports into Europe previously stood at roughly 2 million tonnes/year. The same source doubts traders or third-country producers will absorb the cost of CBAM.
While the market is far from lively, another producer maintains that 2025 should still be an acceptable year for plate sales. “We will achieve a slightly positive result, and in 2026 EU buyers will purchase more in Europe considering the challenges of importing,” he comments.
From October, sellers expect increased interest from buyers for year-end and early-2026 deliveries. For now, however, demand remains sluggish, with one service centre reporting slow stock depletion.
Transactions are still taking place at €590-600/t ($696-708) ex-works for S275-grade plate, while S355 is trading at around €620/t. On the upstream side, slab imports are reported at $480-500/t cfr Italy, depending on volumes. Producers are currently quoting €620-630/t delivered for S275 and around €650/t for S355.
Natalia Capra France
Assofermet: Demand, CBAM uncertainty challenge service centre market
September is a month of cautious recovery for flat products, with distributor volumes showing moderate growth and prices edging higher for certain products, says Italian steel trade association, Assofermet.
Inventory management and demand in end-use sectors, particularly construction and automotive, “will be decisive factors”, the association states in its recent market note seen by Kallanish.
International uncertainty remains high. If clarification on tariffs has reduced some ambiguity, it has also confirmed the significant impact of US duties on the Italian steel market. “This situation is generating a domestic supply surplus, with the risk of further price compression, especially in standard products,” the note adds.
September shows continuity with the pre-summer market for Italian coil service centres, but the situation it is aggravated by increasing concern over the cost impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
At present the European Commission has yet to provide a clear calculation method to determine the CBAM cost for each individual import transaction. In anticipation of the new regulation set to replace the current safeguard measure expiring in June 2026, Assofermet has already flagged to the European Commission a series of critical points that must be taken into account during the study phase.
In the July-August period, service centre sales were supported by the partial rebound in coil prices, which revived buyers’ interest throughout the value chain. However, the sector faced significant challenges in passing on the higher coil costs to customers and encountered persistently weak downstream demand and a widespread climate of mistrust and cautiousness.
Natalia Capra France
Stellantis to reduce output in Europe: sources
Stellantis is set to pause production at several European plants in response to weak car demand and the downturn in the European automotive sector, Kallanish learns from union sources in Italy.
The stoppages, scheduled between late September and October, will last from one to three weeks depending on each site and car model. Facilities involved include Poissy in France, Pomigliano in Italy, Eisenach in Germany, Tychy in Poland, and both Zaragoza and Madrid in Spain.
In July, Jean-Philippe Imparato, head of Stellantis Europe, warned about the potential closure of several plants across the continent.
According to Imparato, Stellantis risks being forced to shut down plants due to non-compliance with the EU’s stringent CO2 emissions regulations. He pointed to what he described as overly rigid decarbonisation policies, unattainable environmental targets, and unsustainable energy costs, particularly in some EU member states. These are drivers of a significant decline in industrial competitiveness.
Stellantis passenger car production plunged in 2024 by 45.7% on-year to 283.090 units. No improvement has been reported this year (see Kallanish passim).
Stellantis did not respond to request for comment before deadline.
Natalia Capra France
Average European prices to decline in 2026: analyst
Average steel prices in Germany and Europe could be lower next year than they have been in 2025 so far, according to calculations by MBI Infosource analyst Peter Fertig.
For hot rolled coil, his forecast model predicts a most likely price of €575/tonne ($676) ex-works in 2026, compared with an average price of €597 in 2025.
It must be kept in mind that prices this year saw a plateau in spring, then peaking at €650+ in mid-April, which has pulled the average value up above the €570+ being achieved currently in the market.
Given that players expect no major spike for the remainder of the year, and likely also not in 2026, the assumption of a lower average price in 2026 is not mathematically wrong. However, Fertig’s model does not exclude oscillations that could be wider even than those seen this year. The best-case scenario he sees is at €715/t, the worst case at €505.
Speaking at the MBI Stahltag in Frankfurt/Offenbach this week, Fertig noted that the eurozone’s purchasing manager index (PMI) has recovered a bit this year to above the critical index mark of 50.
However, Germany remains at below 50, mainly due to the burden of high energy costs. Overall order intake in the eurozone, moreover, remains weak, Fertig noted at the event attended by Kallanish. He added that mills need to keep their output low to be able to defend their prices.
For cold rolled coil, Fertig’s forecast model sees a base scenario of €660/t in 2026, with a best case scenario of €775 and a worst case of €595. For rebar, it predicts a base price of €600. The best and worst case scenarios are tighter than they are for coil, at €645 and €560, respectively. Similarly, wire rod might oscillate between €740 and €620, with €675 as the most likely price, according to the figures Fertig presented at the conference.
Christian Koehl Germany
Steel HRC prices in southern Europe edge up on CBAM concerns
Domestic prices for steel hot-rolled coil in Europe moved in different directions on Thursday September 25. While in Northern Europe prices moved sideways, in the south prices picked up somewhat, amid limited offers.
In Northern Europe, market participants estimated the workable price for HRC around €570-580 ($666-677) per tonne ex-works, but with no sales heard during the day.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €575.00 per tonne on Thursday, stable day on day.
The Northern European index was down by €5.50 per tonne week on week, and down by €1.25 per tonne month on month.
The Italian market was also largely quiet. One key regional supplier was firm in his position because local supply was limited, while buyers which formerly procured foreign material put this business on pause.
“Third-country imports are ruled out at the moment, no matter the offer price, because long lead times create a high risk of these goods being customs-cleared only after January 1, 2026,” a mill source told Fastmarkets. This will be the date when the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) comes into force.
A trading source confirmed that there was no interest in bookings of imported material at the moment.
In such conditions several sources reported local material to be available at prices below €570 per tonne ex-works, but for large tonnages a price of €550 per tonne ex-works was said to be possible.
Nevertheless, no business was heard done at these higher prices.
“At the moment, the market is in standby mode because real demand is pretty flat, while stocks are at average-high levels,” a seller source said.
Earlier this week, market participants estimated the workable to be in the range of €530-550 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €550.00 per tonne ex-works on Thursday, up by €6.67 per tonne from €543.33 per tonne on Wednesday.
The Italian index was down by €0.63 per tonne week on week, but up by €9.17 per tonne month on month.
European steel heavy plate prices narrow down amid slow trade, weak demand
Domestic heavy steel plate prices in Europe fell in the week to Thursday September 25, dragged down by weak demand and slow trade, sources told Fastmarkets.
Italy
Italian domestic commodity-grade plate prices narrowed down in the week, amid limited buying and slow demand, according to sources.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel domestic plate, 8-40mm, exw Southern Europe was €600-610 ($701-713) per tonne on Thursday, narrowing down by €10 per tonne from €600-620 per tonne a week earlier.
Northern Europe
In Northern Europe, sources said the market was quiet “with close to no deals.”
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel domestic plate, 8-40mm, exw Northern Europe was €620-655 per tonne on Thursday, narrowing down by €10 per tonne from €620-665 per tonne a week earlier.
“All plate mills in northern Europe tried during and after the vacation period to jack-up prices, but customers only purchased the ‘commodity grade’ material they urgently needed to complete projects,” a trader source said.
Commodity grade delivery times are one or two months, the trader source added, but said that activity was more “constant” for specialty plate products used for offshore foundations or monopiles for offshore wind farms, which had delivery times of two or three months.