Day: 14 October 2025

Germany’s manufacturing industries remain under pressure, according to the country’s industrial umbrella organisation BDI – Bund der Deutschen Industrie – which reported a notable drop in industrial production of 2.5% in the second quarter.

An economic recovery “is not gaining ground”, BDI writes, contrary to some signs of a silver lining spotted earlier. In the fourth quarter of 2024, German GDP had gained some 0.2% year-on-year, and another 0.3% in the first quarter this year, but then saw a y-o-y drop of 0.3% in the second quarter.

The main cause is continued domestic demand weakness and declining investment, while plant utilisation remains low, Kallanish understands. Only recently, steel federation WV Stahl reported German steel mill capacity utilisation was at 67%.

Order intake figures in manufacturing industries nevertheless rose by 4.1% y-o-y in Q2, supported by orders from abroad. Orders from German buyers remained weak with a y-o-y drop of 1.5%, but were offset by orders from other countries which rose 8%.

Still, the production drop in manufacturing industries marks a setback after the increase of 1.3% seen in Q1. Revenues have kept dropping for two years now, with Q2 alone seeing a dip of 2.1%. BDI notes.

A small bright spot was seen at carmaking giant Volkswagen, which saw sales of passenger cars rise by 1% in the year so far, mainly due to good sales of electric vehicles.

Christian Koehl Germany

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Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic wants to hold discussions with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the proposed new EU steel trade measure, which will hit Serbia hard, he said during a press conference last week.

“We want to hold discussions with Ursula von der Leyen when she comes to Belgrade and to urge her to at least lift the tariffs for us as an EU membership candidate country if she can,” he said. “We will also accept quotas.”

According to him, the proposal of the European Commission to increase tariffs on imported steel will directly affect the Chinese-owned steel plant in the country – HBIS Group Serbia Iron & Steel. “That is a huge problem both for us and our Chinese partners. We expected a reduction of EU steel import quotas and Serbia could have handled it. However, now additional tariffs are to be introduced and none of us can handle that.”

The European automotive industry has been unable to handle competition from China and carmakers have protested the new trade measure proposal, he added. “Brussels is protecting the European steel industry and steel mills, but is killing the European car industry,” he argued.

Vucic said that, besides Serbia, the United Kingdom, Turkey and some other European countries are hardest hit by the tariff increase.

In May, HBIS Serbia Iron & Steel said it would continue to operate with only one blast furnace due to weak demand globally, especially in the European steel market (see Kallanish passim).

The plant in Smederevo can produce about 2.2 million tonnes/year of steel with its two furnaces, while No.1 alone has a capacity of about 900,000 t/y. Product range comprises hot and cold rolled coil, pickled coil and electrolytic tinplate.

The mill has a 5,000-strong workforce but in total around 20,000 people depend on it, according to Serbian authorities.

Serbia’s January-August crude steel output was 928,500t, up by 1.12% on-year.

Svetoslav Abrossimov Bulgaria

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As EU steelmaker associations celebrate the European Commission’s new safeguard proposal, long product buyers are beginning to question the potential impact on their segment. While most market participants agree flats prices are likely to rise sharply, many doubt the impact on longs as import quotas from several countries remain underutilised, Kallanish notes.

In key markets such as Italy, France, and Germany, imports of rebar and merchant bar from outside the EU are already very limited. European prices for long products are largely driven by competition among EU-based producers, rather than by external import pressure.

While the rebar market remains largely regional, with some flows between Italy, southern Germany, and France, the presence of Spanish merchant bar and sections in both Italy and France remains particularly strong. Certain low-priced products, such as rebar from outside the EU, reportedly do not possess the required European certification, making them non-compliant for sale or use within the EU market.

The Commission’s proposal is expected to substantially reduce import volumes across all products, with rebar and wire rod imports expected to fall each by some 40% and merchant bar and light sections by 55%.

However, exposure to imports varies by country. Italian and French longs buyers say that national import data should be reviewed before drawing conclusions. Both Italy and France reportedly do not experience significant distortions from long product imports originating outside Europe.

An Italian wire rod buyer suggests the new safeguard appears to be a “copy and paste” of the US tariff approach. Longs makers may be over optimistic when interpreting European data, which could lead to a temporary increase in prices that would quickly deflate in the current stagnant market.

While wire rod prices have occasionally been influenced by Algerian, Egyptian or Turkish material, recent protectionist measures have not prevented values from declining in both southern and northern Europe.

Another source in Italy considers the new safeguard as a temporary buffer, noting that the European Commission, having been delayed in clarifying the CBAM measure, may have chosen to adopt what amounts to a “copy and paste” of the US tariffs.

Eurofer pointed out last week that the new trade system comprises a WTO-compliant tariff-rate-quota system, unlike US 50% duties on all steel imports justified on unilateral national security grounds. This came after the Commission clarified that “upfront high duties” would have hurt EU downstream players. Some observers have nevertheless warned the new measure pushes the boundaries of WTO acceptance.

Natalia Capra France

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Italian re-rollers are considering gradual but steady price increases in the coming weeks, reflecting the impact of the new EU safeguard measure and anticipated costs associated with CBAM. The sector is preparing for a significant rise in average hot rolled coil costs in the near future, Kallanish notes.

Re-rollers are expected to be particularly impacted by the new safeguard measures, which will effectively remove several million tonnes of coil imports from the European market. Major players acknowledge they will need to continue sourcing globally to meet their substantial requirements. However, the combined effects of CBAM, melt-and-pour origin rules, and quota restrictions are expected to significantly increase the cost of imported HRC.

The market remains subdued, with demand sluggish and buyers maintaining a cautious stance. Purchasing activity is limited to small tonnages, often combining multiple grades and dimensions within single orders to optimise procurement costs.

Re-rollers acknowledge that a price repositioning will be necessary but remain pragmatic given the current slow consumption levels. They are expected to implement increases gradually, allowing customers sufficient time to absorb the adjustments and pass them downstream through the supply chain.

In the post-safeguard steel market, tube price increases are set to be “gradual”, as the industry cautiously tests the waters. Starting this week, welded tube prices will rise by €20/tonne ($23.4/t), aiming for a total increase of €50/t by the end of October, in the pursuit of “more sustainable” margins. The initial €20/t hike comes before any confirmed coil price increases.

Discounts in Italy are currently hovering at around 40 points. The plan is to gently push them down to 35 points by the end of October, recovering a couple of points each week.

The European coil market is pausing ahead of repositioning. Prices are expected to rise sharply in the coming days, as several producers halt sales and withdraw quotes. Some are said to be about to increase coil prices by €50/t ex-works, sources say.

Concerns are mounting among buyers about material availability, particularly since ArcelorMittal mothballed last week a blast furnace due to an accident (see Kallanish passim).

Natalia Capra France

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