Italian re-rollers are considering gradual but steady price increases in the coming weeks, reflecting the impact of the new EU safeguard measure and anticipated costs associated with CBAM. The sector is preparing for a significant rise in average hot rolled coil costs in the near future, Kallanish notes.
Re-rollers are expected to be particularly impacted by the new safeguard measures, which will effectively remove several million tonnes of coil imports from the European market. Major players acknowledge they will need to continue sourcing globally to meet their substantial requirements. However, the combined effects of CBAM, melt-and-pour origin rules, and quota restrictions are expected to significantly increase the cost of imported HRC.
The market remains subdued, with demand sluggish and buyers maintaining a cautious stance. Purchasing activity is limited to small tonnages, often combining multiple grades and dimensions within single orders to optimise procurement costs.
Re-rollers acknowledge that a price repositioning will be necessary but remain pragmatic given the current slow consumption levels. They are expected to implement increases gradually, allowing customers sufficient time to absorb the adjustments and pass them downstream through the supply chain.
In the post-safeguard steel market, tube price increases are set to be “gradual”, as the industry cautiously tests the waters. Starting this week, welded tube prices will rise by €20/tonne ($23.4/t), aiming for a total increase of €50/t by the end of October, in the pursuit of “more sustainable” margins. The initial €20/t hike comes before any confirmed coil price increases.
Discounts in Italy are currently hovering at around 40 points. The plan is to gently push them down to 35 points by the end of October, recovering a couple of points each week.
The European coil market is pausing ahead of repositioning. Prices are expected to rise sharply in the coming days, as several producers halt sales and withdraw quotes. Some are said to be about to increase coil prices by €50/t ex-works, sources say.
Concerns are mounting among buyers about material availability, particularly since ArcelorMittal mothballed last week a blast furnace due to an accident (see Kallanish passim).
Natalia Capra France
