Day: 17 December 2025

European hot-rolled coil market remained quiet on Tuesday December 16 amid trading standstill and looming policy updates. Some suppliers target higher prices for the first quarter delivery, Fastmarkets heard.

Leading European steelmaker ArcelorMittal was heard to be largely sold out for February delivery HRC. For March delivery, the company has raised its HRC offers by €20 per tonne to €670 per tonne base delivered (or ex-works), depending on the region, Fastmarkets heard on Tuesday.

A steelmaker from Benelux reported plans to target €650 per tonne ex-works for March delivery coils.

Price ideas from customers in Northern Europe came at €610-630 per tonne ex-works, but trading was thin lately.

“HRC prices are moving up step by step — however only due to uncertainty with new imports due to CBAM and new safeguards,” a buyer in Germany said.

“Prices [for HRC] are very fragile, there is no support from demand side; restocking will be minimal,” a second buyer said.

As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €623.54 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €1.87 per tonne from €621.67 per tonne on Monday December 15.

The index was up by €0.73 per tonne week on week and up by €10.62 per tonne month on month.

Meanwhile, in Italy, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €613.33 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €1.66 per tonne from €611.67 per tonne on Monday.

The index was down by €0.42 per tonne week on week, but up by €12.08 per tonne month on month.

Trading was almost nonexistent in Italy, sources said. Similarly to the situation in northern Europe, local distributors held sufficient stocks, while local mills had good order books.

Offers for February delivery HRC were heard at €610-640 per tonne ex-works, depending on supplier.

Buyers estimated achievable prices at €600-620 per tonne ex-works. Although, one source pointed out that “it was no longer possible to buy HRC below €610 per tonne ex-works in Italy.”

Meanwhile, market participants said interest in new import bookings remained muted, weighed down by the EU’s upcoming CBAM requirements, the transition to a new trade regime and uncertainty over the remaining quota volumes available under the current safeguard system.

“Buying imports on CFR basis is no longer possible. Only viable option is DDP-based bookings, at least partially accounted for CBAM costs — a few big traders offer that option,” Italina buyer said. “Small buyers just withdrawn from the market because they can’t manage CBAM costs complexity,” they added.

Algerian coil was offered in Italy at €610 per tonne DDP. Offers for Turkish HRC were heard at €620 per tonne DDP in Italy.

 

Leading European steelmaker ArcelorMittal has raised its offer prices for hot-rolled coil across Europe by another €20 ($23) per tonne for March delivery, Fastmarkets heard on Tuesday December 16.

Several sources familiar with the matter confirmed to Fastmarkets that ArcelorMittal had announced a price increase of €20 per tonne for March-delivery HRC, with new offers at €670 per tonne base delivered, compared with €650 per tonne base delivered for January/February delivery coil, announced in October.

As for downstream flat steel – cold-rolled coil and hot-dip galvanized coil – there was less traction in these segments compared with HRC, sources said.

The latest sales for HDG were reported at €760 per tonne base delivered in Northern Europe.

Some sources reported offers for March-delivery HDG from the supplier at €780 per tonne base delivered earlier this month. This was up by €30 per tonne compared to offers for HDG to be delivered in January and February, which were confirmed in October to be at €750 per tonne base delivered.

New offers have not been traded so far, but market sources noted that sentiment among other suppliers was becoming increasingly bullish, following the recent Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) updates.

Sources pointed out that recent price increases achieved in the European flat steel market were driven entirely by shifting trade regulations – notably CBAM and new trade regime, while real demand remained sluggish.

“[Flat steel] prices are moving slowly upwards – however only due to fear of uncertain costs of CBAM and new safeguards and are not driven by demand,” a buyer source in Germany said.

“There are very few companies who can manage CBAM financially – therefore, import activities almost stalled recently. Reliance on domestic steel next year will be much bigger, imports is becoming unmanageable,” a buyer in Italy said.

In recent weeks, European HRC prices have been broadly stable, with distributors and stockholders holding sufficient inventories and holding back from trading, expecting more clarity about the new trade measures and CBAM, and postponing purchases.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe reflected the recent standstill in the market, trading within a range of €621-623 per tonne throughout the week to December 12. Minor day-to-day fluctuations marked a generally flat market, although month-on-month changes still indicated a modest upward trend.

Fastmarkets’ most recent calculation of daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €621.67 per tonne on Monday, flat from December 12.

The index was down by €0.58 per tonne week on week but up by €8.75 per tonne month on month.

So far, tradable prices for HRC across Europe have remained below ArcelorMittal’s target offers – with recent trades in Northern Europe reported at €620-630 per tonne ex-works.

Looking ahead, sources said that in early 2026, following the full rollout of CBAM and the closure of remaining opportunities to secure competitively priced imports, higher prices might be accepted “in small steps,” Fastmarkets heard.

 

Volkswagen is halting on Tuesday car production at one of its plants in Germany, for the first time in its 88-year history, Kallanish notes. The production line in Dresden is the one affected.

The move comes at a time when Europe’s largest automaker is under immense pressure due to weak demand and sales in both China and Europe, as well as increased tariffs in the US.

Volkswagen is struggling to allocate its investment budget of around €160 billion ($187 billion) over the next five years and the company continues to look for ways to cut costs and boost operating profits.

The Dresden plant has produced fewer than 200,000 vehicles since it began production in 2002, less than half the annual output of the central Wolfsburg plant. The closure is part of a deal reached with unions last year that will also see VW cut 35,000 jobs in Germany.

The plant site will be leased to the Technical University of Dresden to create a research campus for the development of artificial intelligence, robotics and chips. VW has pledged to invest €50 million over the next seven years in the joint project with the university, while continuing to use the facility as a dealership for delivering cars to customers and as a tourist attraction.

Volkswagen is also preparing major changes to its development strategy. They should allow the company to maintain its focus on electrified models, make electric cars more affordable and have greater range.

That’s why VW’s future lineup in Europe and North America will be filled with cars organised according to the principle of a sequential hybrid. These are the so-called extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), which are very popular in China but not yet widespread in Europe and North America.

Volkswagen reports that the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has been slower than expected, with the main reason cited as consumer concerns about the range of the vehicle. The EREV system addresses this issue.

Investments in such hybrids will be part of the new strategic plan for the next five years. This will be published in March 2026 and is expected to take into account the upcoming postponement of the entry into force of the EU’s internal combustion engine (ICE) ban. The EU is expected to announce changes to this policy on 16 December.

Earlier, German defence manufacturer Rheinmetall said it is considering taking over one of Volkswagen’s soon-to-be-unused plants, as the arms maker seeks additional production capacity in Germany while domestic carmakers struggle.

VW’s Osnabrück plant is one of three that will remain unused for the next two years after the automaker decided last December to halve its production capacity in the country due to slowing car sales in Europe.

 

The European Council has adopted its mandate to negotiate with the European Parliament on the new steel trade regime, with certain amendments introduced such as allowing unused quota carry-overs and reviewing the measure’s scope after 18 months.

The requirement for importers to provide evidence on the country of melt and pour will meanwhile apply from 1 October 2026, Kallanish notes.

The Council says it has incorporated Union interest as a guiding principle to ensure explicit consideration for all economic operators and final consumers.

Unused tariff quota volumes in one quarter will be permitted to be carried over to the next quarter within the same yearly period of application of the tariff rate quota. When amending quotas, policymakers will also need to consider potential substantial price increases seriously undermining the competitiveness of downstream industries.

The Commission can, via a delegated act, adjust tariff quota volumes, taking into account the EU interest and a series of elements. The Council clarified that the total value of these adjusted quotas must be capped to remain between 15.2 and 22.2 million tonnes.

The melt and pour implementation date will meanwhile provide a transition period for industry and customs agencies to adjust to the new rule, the Council notes.

Within two years, the Commission will have to assess whether to designate the country of melt-and-pour as the basis for country-specific tariff quota allocations. If the Commission concludes it is necessary to do so, it will present a new legislative proposal to that effect.

As for the scope review after 18 months, the Commission will launch a consultation process to this end with relevant stakeholder by 1 October 2026.

The period for the first overall review of the regulation’s effects on the steel market and the EU interest has been shortened to four years from the date of entry into force, with subsequent evaluations every two years thereafter. Council also added further attention in the review for the impacts on downstream industries.

A new provision also requires the Commission to make an online contact point available for EU economic operators to request relevant information concerning the implementation of this regulation.

Once the European Parliament adopts its position, the co-legislators will start negotiations with a view to finalising the work on the text. The European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade (INTA) is likely to vote on the amended proposal in January before there is a vote in plenary (see Kallanish passim). The regulation will enter into force once adopted by both institutions and published in the official journal.

Commission negotiations with WTO members and FTA partners on access to the EU steel market are understood to require a separate mandate, which is yet to be provided by the Council.

 

Rebar prices from German mills have moved up only minimally in recent weeks, with wire mesh seeing the same fate.

A manager of a bender firm reports market talk that prices for wire rod have recovered somewhat since November, which could feed through to wire mesh pricing. At present, delivered prices of wire mesh are at around €60/tonne ($70) above rebar, Kallanish learns from buyers.

For rebar, base price offers now stand at €340/t. When adding the standard size extra of €265, this would result in a delivered price of €605/t. The base price for wire mesh is €100 higher, at €440/t, which plus an average surcharge of €212 would give a delivered price of €662/t, another manager specifies.

He does not believe that wire mesh will see a stronger upward momentum than rebar, mainly because wire mesh is typically used in construction of smaller residential units, a segment in which activity is particularly sluggish.

One extraordinary factor is the increase that occurred in late summer of size extras for rebar at one particular mill, Badische Stahlwerke. According to the manager, Badische also meant to bring up the surcharges for wire mesh. While they more or less succeeded with rebar, they did not work with wire mesh, he says.

Also, the only mill to follow Badische’s example was Austria’s Marienhütte. Other mills have not shown attempts to follow suit, “and they will not anytime soon”, the manager predicts.

 

The Spanish hot rolled coil market is nearing Christmas with prices steady after demand recovered slightly at the beginning of December, market sources tell Kallanish.

“We saw a rebound in HRC purchases in early December,” says one seller. “Customers from the main demand sectors closed larger quantities of HRC this month. Their latest purchases, both in terms of volume and short delivery time, show they are keeping a close eye on the possible effects of the European Commission’s latest decisions on trade policy,” he explains.

Most supplies are sourced domestically, as buyers are very cautious about imports, with an increase in costs on the horizon following the 1 January 2026 implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

“Steel selling prices are rising, but market consumption is not keeping pace. The usual selling levels for covering new purchases have been distorted, and we are unable to avoid losses due to a lack of stock,” a market participant confirms.

Spanish steel distributors agree that a shortage is expected at the beginning of 2026 and point out that delivery times will be decisive for the market.

Spanish steelmakers are resisting making concessions on their HRC prices, which currently stand at €610-620/tonne ($715.9-727.7). ArcelorMittal is offering the material at €40-50/t higher.

Steel distributors’ HRC prices range from €690-710/t delivered.

Leading steelmaker ArcelorMittal has increased its hot-rolled coil (HRC) offer price for late Q1 2026, McCloskey confirmed 16 December, in line with market expectations for the new year. 

Offers for hot-rolled coil (HRC) have been increased to EUR670/t delivered Europe – or ex-works Ruhr –  from previous offers of EUR630-650/t, depending on delivery period. The latest offer increase was heard as available for March delivery, as the steelmaker has reportedly received strong bookings for the preceding months.

In its latest earnings call, the steelmaker said it viewed the recovery of currently subdued steel capacity utilization across Europe as a priority, seeing an effective implementation of January’s definitive stage of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and next year’s long-term replacement of the EU’s existing steel safeguards as key supportive mechanisms.

The steelmaker has previously communicated its readiness to ramp up capacities across Europe to meet an increase in domestic demand in 2026. Some of McCloskey’s buyer sources fear that rapid restrictions to import accessibility could see shortages for some steel products and grades next year – cold-rolled coil (CRC) has been viewed with particular concern.

Market participants are pretty unanimous in holding bullish sentiments for the EU steel market in 2026, though they are less consolidated on the timeline, with some distributors citing high stock levels (largely import material cleared in advance of CBAM liabilities) and an unwillingness of end-consumers to absorb higher prices in ongoing negotiations as limiting any further price increases in the near-term.

Said buyers would argue that the post-summer HRC price rally from lows of EUR530/t ex-works occurred independent of any real demand recovery, with aforementioned import restrictions from CBAM and replacement safeguards already ‘priced in’ in the increase in HRC market levels to current prices of around EUR620/t ex-works.

Regardless, by mid-year sources largely agree that market inventories will require additional supply from either the domestic markets, or abroad, giving domestic producers greater pricing power.

Imported steel would by that time be subject to not only direct CBAM costs, but likely also threatened by a 50% out-of-quota duty rate, as the Commission’s long-term replacement to the EU’s steel safeguards must take effect by July if the EU steel industry is to retain any explicit trade protections beyond existing anti-dumping duties.

Steelmaker costs will also increase from next year as free allocations under the Emissions Trading System (ETS) begin to phase-out (at a starting reduction of 2.5%), both in the near-term, and down-the-line, as a recovery in capacity utilization will presumably incur a corresponding increase in production process emissions, to be subsequently covered by EUAs.

Author: Benjamin Steven

opisnet.com