Leading steelmaker ArcelorMittal has increased its hot-rolled coil (HRC) offer price for late Q1 2026, McCloskey confirmed 16 December, in line with market expectations for the new year.
Offers for hot-rolled coil (HRC) have been increased to EUR670/t delivered Europe – or ex-works Ruhr – from previous offers of EUR630-650/t, depending on delivery period. The latest offer increase was heard as available for March delivery, as the steelmaker has reportedly received strong bookings for the preceding months.
In its latest earnings call, the steelmaker said it viewed the recovery of currently subdued steel capacity utilization across Europe as a priority, seeing an effective implementation of January’s definitive stage of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and next year’s long-term replacement of the EU’s existing steel safeguards as key supportive mechanisms.
The steelmaker has previously communicated its readiness to ramp up capacities across Europe to meet an increase in domestic demand in 2026. Some of McCloskey’s buyer sources fear that rapid restrictions to import accessibility could see shortages for some steel products and grades next year – cold-rolled coil (CRC) has been viewed with particular concern.
Market participants are pretty unanimous in holding bullish sentiments for the EU steel market in 2026, though they are less consolidated on the timeline, with some distributors citing high stock levels (largely import material cleared in advance of CBAM liabilities) and an unwillingness of end-consumers to absorb higher prices in ongoing negotiations as limiting any further price increases in the near-term.
Said buyers would argue that the post-summer HRC price rally from lows of EUR530/t ex-works occurred independent of any real demand recovery, with aforementioned import restrictions from CBAM and replacement safeguards already ‘priced in’ in the increase in HRC market levels to current prices of around EUR620/t ex-works.
Regardless, by mid-year sources largely agree that market inventories will require additional supply from either the domestic markets, or abroad, giving domestic producers greater pricing power.
Imported steel would by that time be subject to not only direct CBAM costs, but likely also threatened by a 50% out-of-quota duty rate, as the Commission’s long-term replacement to the EU’s steel safeguards must take effect by July if the EU steel industry is to retain any explicit trade protections beyond existing anti-dumping duties.
Steelmaker costs will also increase from next year as free allocations under the Emissions Trading System (ETS) begin to phase-out (at a starting reduction of 2.5%), both in the near-term, and down-the-line, as a recovery in capacity utilization will presumably incur a corresponding increase in production process emissions, to be subsequently covered by EUAs.
Author: Benjamin Steven
