Fastmarkets Iron Ore & Green Steel Summit: Is steel’s regionalization a structural shift?
The era of hyper-globalization in steel is over
A commodity analyst on the panel argued that the past two decades were an anomaly, driven largely by China’s explosive growth.
“China dominated world trade through ballooning exports,” he said. “But what’s changing is that growth is moderating. This feels like pre-2000. We’re going back to a collection of regionalized markets. The globalisation bit was just an anomaly.”
An economist, however, attributed the fragmentation not to market forces but to regulation.
“Fragmentation has been produced by lawmakers and politicians,” he said, pointing to Europe’s unique regulatory trajectory, particularly on climate policy. “We are starting to become something of an island because we want things to be done differently. That’s inevitable.”
A third panellist confirmed the shift from a commercial perspective, noting that purchasing decisions have fundamentally changed. “Previously, pricing was everything. Now, because of trade barriers and other measures, buying decisions are being elevated to the top-management level, making them more strategic,” he said, highlighting a growing focus on maintaining optionality and diversifying sourcing to improve supply-chain resilience.
Is China’s increasing steel export cyclical or structural?
A significant portion of the debate centered on China’s role, with its steel exports exceeding 100 million tonnes amid weakening domestic demand.
The commodity analyst described the move as structural, stating, “I’m a bear on China’s economy and China’s steel demand.”
He noted that China’s commodity intensity had peaked and that its steel industry is increasingly competing in global markets through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative.
Adding context to the scale of the pressure, another panellist said: “China is exporting about 130 million tonnes a year. If we look at the world excluding China, consumption is about 900 million tonnes. China exports roughly 15% of the consumption of the rest of the world.”
Green steel: A new trade barrier and its unintended consequences
The discussion also turned to how trade barriers are evolving beyond traditional trade measures, with climate policy increasingly influencing competitiveness. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) was a key point of contention.
The economist framed CBAM primarily as a climate measure, but acknowledged its industrial implications.
From a commercial standpoint, however, another panellist suggested the impact is becoming more “manageable.”
He explained: “It’s a new cost layer that customers are adapting to. Steel mills that want to export to Europe have to provide some data, and many companies are already collecting it. From my point of view, it will become a manageable measure sooner or later.”
The commodity analyst offered a more cautionary take, warning of a broader economic drag.
“It raises the cost of steel for European end-users. Their goods are probably going to be less competitive on a cost basis if they’re exporting to the world,” he said. “Unless they’re selling entirely within Europe, they have to compete with China anyway. So they’ve got to figure out how to adjust their costs across all other inputs to remain competitive.”
EU quota silence leaves Italian coil market speechless
The Italian coil market remains mostly flat with stable-to-weak activity, with no change from the beginning of the month. Slow consumption and softening downstream prices are resulting in a gradual depletion of coil stocks at steel processors, Kallanish notes.
Buyers and producers alike are waiting for the confirmation and publication of the quota allocations ahead of the new safeguard implementation on 1 July. Despite some information being published, there is no certainty on quota details with only days to go before the deadline.
“Before being able to comment on it, we have to wait for the official definitive version of the document from the EU. We had heard of a certain preference for Free Trade Agreement countries, which should be around eight, and for the others a global quota regulated on a first-come first-served basis. A possible cap is also probable,” one large steel buyer comments.
“I can hardly believe we have and will have no news. These people are incompetent and do not realise the consequences of their actions,” one service centre source says. Other sources have expressed considerable frustration with the European regulators.
Currently hot rolled coil (HRC) buying appetite remains limited and stocks are well filled, but several processors expect to return to purchasing in September.
A mill source says that enquiries are already picking up, while a steel processor anticipates the sector will resume buying next month.
Shortages are expected for certain non-standard grades and dimensions, including embossed material. One service centre source tells Kallanish that a rush to purchase in Europe is anticipated in September, while imports of non-standard sizes will continue in July though such material is unlikely to clear customs before 1 October.
“We will only buy in Europe, but we’ll have no strong contracting power, which will push prices up throughout the value chain. At this stage, however, I don’t know how our clients will react. They will probably reduce their volumes as many cannot afford to buy at high prices,” the source says.
One trader believes Brussels to be withholding information on the new quota distribution deliberately. “Their aim is to reduce imports. Because of the uncertainty, nobody is importing, apart from the large companies that have no choice, and even the large companies are now waiting,” they suggest.
Italian coil prices are stable week-on-week. HRC is averaging €670-680/tonne ($767.8-779.3/t) base ex-works, while cold rolled coil (CRC) and hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) are at €790-810/t base ex-works, sources suggest.
NW European coil distributors drop prices for orders
The prevailing lull of demand for steel in northwestern Europe’s manufacturing industries is increasingly pressuring distributors of coil to offer at lower levels.
In order to attract reserved buyers, to generate cash flow, and to keep business going, an increasing number of distributors are making offers at levels not much higher than prices set by mills.
“They offer sale prices that reflect neither the stock value nor the costs for restocking,” one German distributor manager tells Kallanish. He expresses concern over aggressive market behaviour which he observes mainly from large players.
Falling sales prices at distributors are parallel to the price trend seen at mills. The recovery of prices over the eight months since last summer lost its momentum in May, shortly after the ex-works price for hot-rolled coil had climbed above €700/tonne ($793/t).
“The mills had pushed too fast, and then came the backlash,” a Dutch buyer says.
“I don’t even hear €700/t offers anymore,” one trader says, adding that distributors are extremely nervous these days.
Transactions are seen at €660-690/t, and possibly still softening. To that base price, German mills usually add several standard extra charges for size, certificates and insurance among others, resulting in an effective ex-works price is around €30/t higher.
“And that’s where I see the low point of prices from various distributors now,” the southern German manager says. He believes that other distributors are banking on mills prices falling.
These concessions come at a critical time for profitability, because the incoming material now stems from the peak price period in April, he notes, with distributors competing with one another, and also with mills.
Author: Christian Koehl
European Commission publishes steel regulation without country quotas
The EU’s new steel trade regulation scheduled for 1 July implementation was published in the EU’s Official Journal on Wednesday, without the country-quota allocations. Since these remain under negotiation with trading partners, it is increasingly unlikely they will be finalised before 1 July, Kallanish notes.
Country-specific quota allocations are to be defined in a separate implementing act. Until that is in place, quotas would operate on a global basis, a material consideration for importers and supply chain planning, says Van Bael & Bellis trade lawyer Yuriy Rudyuk.
The regulation does however allow the Commission to adopt immediately applicable implementing acts under an urgency procedure to ensure tariff quotas are distributed by 1 July.
The new regime establishes annual tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) totalling 18.35 million tonnes and raises the out-of-quota duty to 50% from the previous 25%
It applies to imports from all countries, including free trade agreement partners and beneficiaries of preferential trade arrangements, with the exception of Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.
Under Article 5, allocations will not be based solely on historical trade shares. Besides the 2013 market shares and product-specific import patterns during 2022-2024, the Commission must also consider existing and future free trade agreements, trade-distorting measures by third countries, compliance with ILO and multilateral environmental agreements, international arrangements addressing global overcapacity, diversification of supply sources and the situation of EU candidate countries facing exceptional and immediate security challenges.
Information collected under the future melt-and-pour system will also be taken into account from October 2027.
A key element of the framework, the “melt and pour” principle, also remains to be specified. From 1 October 2026, importers will be required to provide verifiable evidence, such as mill test certificates (MTCs), identifying where steel or iron was initially produced in liquid form and cast into its first solid state.
However, the Commission has until 31 August to adopt implementing rules defining the acceptable proof, following consultations with stakeholders. By June 2028, it will assess whether eligibility for TRQs should be linked to the country of melt and pour in order to prevent circumvention through further processing in third countries.
The regulation also empowers the Commission to adjust the overall quota volume within a range of 14.4-22.2mt, depending on demand, developments in global overcapacity, supply availability, decarbonisation progress and defence considerations. Reviews of the product scope are also foreseen, including an assessment by June 2027 on extending coverage to downstream products containing significant amounts of steel.
Quotas will be administered on a quarterly basis, with unused volumes carried over to subsequent quarters only during the first year of application, from 1 July 2026 to 30 June 2027.
| Product category number | Product category name | Volume of tariff quotas |
| 1A | HR sheets, strips | 5,198,754 |
| 1B | HR sheets, strips | 4,581 |
| 2 | CR sheets | 1,544,759 |
| 3A | Electrical sheets (other than GOES) | 612 |
| 3B | 199,079 | |
| 4A | Metallic coated sheets | 1,620,686 |
| 4B | Metallic coated Sheets | 1,238,995 |
| 5 | Organic coated sheets | 627,871 |
| 6 | Tin mill products | 542,840 |
| 7 | Quarto plates | 1,196,903 |
| 8 | Stainless HR sheets, strips | 153,186 |
| 9 | Stainless CR sheets, strips | 496,342 |
| 10 | Stainless HR quarto plates | 17,025 |
| 12 | Merchant bars, light sections | 881,735 |
| 13 | Rebars | 844,526 |
| 14 | Stainless bars, light sections | 133,595 |
| 15 | Stainless wire rod | 40,462 |
| 16 | Wire rod | 1,569,532 |
| 17 | Angles, shapes, sections | 184,607 |
| 18 | Sheet piling | 31,263 |
| 19 | Railway material | 16,472 |
| 20 | Gas pipes | 222,413 |
| 21 | Hollow sections | 499,493 |
| 22 | Seamless stainless tubes, pipes | 32,967 |
| 24 | Other seamless tubes | 268,901 |
| 25A | Large welded tubes | 28,749 |
| 25B | 83,616 | |
| 26 | Other welded pipes | 250,757 |
| 27 | Cold finished bars | 97,315 |
| 28 | Wire | 317,886 |
| TOTAL: | 18,345,922 | |
|---|---|---|
Source: Official Journal of the European Union
Author: Elina Virchenko
EU’s new steel regulation published in the official journal ,including “Melt and Pour” requirement and 50% tariff
Tubao accelerates low-carbon hydraulic solutions with ArcelorMittal’s XCarb technology
German players debate EU protection of downstream products
Representatives from steel distributors and processors have met with the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry to draw attention to the competitive distortions caused by imported steel-based finished products.
The debate was headed by EUROMETAL president Alexander Julius, managing director of German trading company macroMetal, who earlier this month strongly advocated for the consideration of downstream products in the EU’s import measures at the Kallanish Europe Steel Markets conference in Vienna.
Other participants at this week’s meeting included Michael Waasner of Gebr. Waasner, Domenico Marino of Knauf Interfer, Jan Hobertof Hettich Management Service, and well as representatives of the German economy ministry.
Among the issues discussed were clearer rules on origin and traceability, the examination of “melt and pour” approaches, and stronger consideration of downstream steel products in existing and future trade-policy instruments.
In a call on the Germany government and the European Commission, the participants demanded an improvement to the rules of origin, traceability and proof in order to prevent circumvention strategies.
They also urged the EU to design existing trade defence instruments to be faster, more practical and more closely aligned with real value chains.
As many downstream products can be relevant for infrastructure, defence and security projects, preserving this industrial base is also of strategic relevance, the participants point out in their joint statement.
That point was also emphasised in Vienna by panellist Jiri Mravec of Trinecke Zelezarny. “We are not living in a peaceful world. Nobody wants to depend 100% on imports.”
Author: Christian Koehl
French construction sector fails to drive steel demand
The French construction sector remains deeply depressed as employment falls and production remains subdued, French construction federation Fédération Française du Bâtiment (FFB) says in a report obtained by Kallanish.
“The conflicts in the Middle East, whose effects have been amplifying since the end of February, are translating into further deterioration for the construction sector. Global uncertainty among clients, the impact on material prices and deteriorating credit market conditions are all weighing on activity, which continues to decline,” FFB says.
France’s new construction sector remains depressed. The trend of the first four months of the year points to 321,000 new housing starts, some 35,000 units below the 40-year average.
Building permits are also down over the same period, with residential construction dragged down by a particularly poor April, which saw permits fall 30.1% on-year.
Further upstream, the pipeline is deteriorating as developers’ sales, already at low levels, continued to decline, falling 1.8% on-year. New non-residential construction also continues to lag while employment in construction fell in Q1 for the 13th consecutive quarter.
High payment delays from public sector clients persist, and operating margins in construction have fallen by 0.6%. Insolvencies in the sector, still at elevated levels, edged down 3% year-on-year over the five months to May, Kallanish understands.
Orders for concrete steel remain weak and supported by infrastructure financed by the European post-Covid recovery fund. According to rebar buyers, prices are stable on-week but declined this month by some €20/tonne ($22.9/t) reflecting the weak demand. Prices are now at €690-700/t delivered. Buyers believe values should remain stable at the current levels ahead of the August break. This week the market is uneventful due to the current extreme weather conditions (see separate article).
Author: Natalia Capra
European rebar prices steady; buyers resist hikes amid slow demand
“There is very slow demand in the residential sector and a very slow speed on public infrastructure sites,” a buyer source told Fastmarkets.
Market participants continued to adopt a wait-and-see approach, citing elevated price levels and resisting ongoing upward pressure from Italian producers.
“The high prices are discouraging many construction sites from starting,” another buyer source told Fastmarkets.
The continuing heatwave in Italy was also reported to be dampening activity.
Tradable levels in Italy remained within the range of €710-770 ($809-878) per tonne ex-works, depending on the region, with transactions continuing within these levels.
In the north of Italy, offers were reported at €710-730 per tonne ex-works, while in the south, mills maintained levels at €750-770, with limited volumes traded at the top end.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, exw Italy was €710-750 per tonne on June 24, unchanged week on week.
In Spain, tradable prices for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Spain, held at €750 per tonne week on week (16mm base), consistent with Fastmarkets’ assessment.
In Germany, domestic rebar prices were unchanged, with tradable levels reported at €710-730 per tonne delivered.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, delivered Northern Europe was €710-730 per tonne in the week to June 24, unchanged from the previous week.
Steel wire rod mirrored broader trends in the European longs market and remained unchanged over the same time period.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality) domestic, delivered Northern Europe was €705-720 per tonne delivered on June 24, unchanged compared with the previous week.
In Southern Europe, tradable levels were reported within the range of €690-720 per tonne delivered.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality) domestic, delivered Southern Europe was €690-720 per tonne, stable week on week.
Author: Nia Radenkova
