German machinery exports rise despite trade headwinds
German machinery exports in June showed a year-on-year upward trend, and US penalty duties have harmed transatlantic exports less than expected, says mechanical engineering association VDMA.
June exports rose 6.8% y-o-y and brought a high note to an otherwise mixed first half, Kallanish understands. VDMA cautioned against taking this for a positive forecast, in view of the many unpredictable geopolitical factors. The association noted the increase does not seem to be distorted by big orders for plant building projects, which very often bring a one-off outlier in monthly figures, but do not indicate a trend.
The first half year still saw a nominal 0.8% y-o-y decline and a 2.5% slide if adjusted for price. The value of exports totalled €99.3 billion ($116 billion) in the first half, while imports reached €47.9 billion.
As detrimental factors, VDMA cites the strong euro versus the dollar and the protectionist US trade policy. However, exports to the US have remained stable with a slight 0.5% uptick, achieved mainly in the second quarter. Exports to China fell by 13.8%, while exports within the European Union increased by 1.3%.
The EU accounted for 45.9% of all German machinery exports, compared with 13.1% for the US and 7.1% for China. Individual overseas markets that showed particularly strong growth in the first half were India and Canada, up 11.1% and 10.0%, respectively.
Author: Christian Koehl Germany
German construction sees some recovery in H1
Permissions for residential construction in Germany have gained considerable strength in the first half of the year, but the industry admonishes that this does not mean a quick revival of activity.
The total of new permissions for residential units granted from January through June, at 126,000, was 15% above the figure of the first half of 2025, according to the federal statistics office, Destatis. This was the strongest increase since 2016, the office notes. However, it also cautions that the current increase comes from a relatively low level last year. By comparison, the total in H1 2016 was 182,000 units.
Despite the apparent upsurge of orders, construction association Hauptverband der Deutschen Bauindustrie cautions that this does not automatically translate into orders, which are still sluggish. High interest rates and high costs for building “keep holding residential construction in a stranglehold,” it says.
According to a survey by economic institute ifo, more than one third of companies in the sector anticipate a negative development in the second half of the year. In the first five months of the year, the industry’s order intake dipped by 2%, Kallanish hears.
The association’s manager, Oliver Müller, calls on the federal government to address the crisis in residential construction, which he says has been lasting for five years now. Müller says political institutions “need to pave a way for easy construction in their guidelines and abolish unnecessary requirements”.
In an earlier statement, Hauptverband referred to a poll among the general public, which showed that the shortage of apartments goes together with concern over the deficiencies in Germany’s transport infrastructure.
Rhine Group: Draghi and European business leaders launch lobby group to revive competitiveness agenda
A group of 55 high-level European business leaders, academics and media personalities launched the ‘Rhine Group’ on 24 August to develop solutions to Europe’s competitiveness challenges, building on the 2024 report of former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
Draghi, Stripe CEO Patrick Collison — whose company provides online payments — and the group’s executive director, Spanish economist Luis Garicano, will lead the group, which will hold its inaugural session from 20–23 September.
French and German members make up the largest national groups, with twelve members each, followed by seven Italians, six Britons and five Spaniards.
Its members include former French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Dutch scientist and former minister Robbert Dijkgraaf, and French Nobel laureate economist Philippe Aghion.
The editors of the Financial Times, the Economist, and the publisher of Le Monde are also members.
The group’s founders argue that Europe is now facing an even more difficult situation than when Draghi’s report was released.
“In every emerging technology that will shape the coming decades, Europe is weak,” the founders wrote.
Commission issues summer guidance for CBAM verifiers, operators
The European Commission published guidelines on 24 August for the officials tasked with ensuring the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) functions as intended.
The guidance is for CBAM verifiers, who ensure that the declarations made by producers subject to the levy follow the rules.
It also provides information for the national bodies responsible for accrediting and supervising these verifiers.
The Commission published an overview of these accreditation bodies, and of their remits, on 24 July.
On 21 August, the EU executive shared a user’s manual for the register through which CBAM declarations must be submitted. On 14 August, it also issued a raft of documents for producers based in third countries — those directly affected by CBAM.
This included guidelines for each sector covered by the mechanism: aluminium, steel and iron, hydrogen, cement, fertilisers and electricity.
The Commission also used the summer period to publish an amended version of the default values used to determine the emissions to be attributed to goods for which no verified actual data is available (Excel version available here).
Guidance on CBAM verification and accreditation for verifiers and national accreditation bodies
State-of-play CBAM accreditation
CBAM-UMN-UI-manual-Release-3.2-Declarants-Portal-SfA-v6.00-EN