German machinery exports in June showed a year-on-year upward trend, and US penalty duties have harmed transatlantic exports less than expected, says mechanical engineering association VDMA.
June exports rose 6.8% y-o-y and brought a high note to an otherwise mixed first half, Kallanish understands. VDMA cautioned against taking this for a positive forecast, in view of the many unpredictable geopolitical factors. The association noted the increase does not seem to be distorted by big orders for plant building projects, which very often bring a one-off outlier in monthly figures, but do not indicate a trend.
The first half year still saw a nominal 0.8% y-o-y decline and a 2.5% slide if adjusted for price. The value of exports totalled €99.3 billion ($116 billion) in the first half, while imports reached €47.9 billion.
As detrimental factors, VDMA cites the strong euro versus the dollar and the protectionist US trade policy. However, exports to the US have remained stable with a slight 0.5% uptick, achieved mainly in the second quarter. Exports to China fell by 13.8%, while exports within the European Union increased by 1.3%.
The EU accounted for 45.9% of all German machinery exports, compared with 13.1% for the US and 7.1% for China. Individual overseas markets that showed particularly strong growth in the first half were India and Canada, up 11.1% and 10.0%, respectively.
Author: Christian Koehl Germany
