The impact of new EU trade barriers on imports has so far been distorted by stockpiling, but market participants are generally optimistic, panellists said at the inaugural edition of the Future Mining Forum and Expo in Katowice on Tuesday. However, the lack of downstream protection threatens the EU supply chain.
It is still too early to fully judge the impact of CBAM and the new tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system on EU trade. EU steel imports fell 2% on-year in the six months after CBAM was implemented, led by a drop in long products, although China-origin intake saw a 30% rise despite anti-dumping measures, said Polish Steel Association (HIPH) president Miroslaw Motyka.
Poland imported 1.2 million tonnes of steel in the first half of 2026, down 6% on-year. This compares to over 1.4mt of imports in the fourth quarter of 2025 alone. The decline in EU imports could therefore just be the result of stockpiling by importers before CBAM was implemented to ensure material availability.
“When it comes to CBAM, it’s too early to say [what the impact is]. We see a certain limitation, re-routing, certain volume pressure, which has reduced; there are more countries after a smaller pie,” Motyka said at the event attended by Kallanish. The TRQs have meanwhile been in place for only two months and have seen a significant rise in imports of slab – which is not covered by the measure – mainly from Brazil.
ArcelorMittal Poland (AMP) chief financial officer Adam Preiss said there was “cautious optimism” about the new measures. “CBAM and TRQs may not be ideal but they work,” he noted. ArcelorMittal has restarted blast furnaces in Poland, France and Spain this year, indicating a certain market revival, but this does not mean an improvement in demand. It is replacing imports with domestic production, he pointed out.
Another topic of discussion was the extension of CBAM to downstream steel products, which Cognor chief executive Przemyslaw Sztuczkowski said he has been lobbying for. He gave the example that a set of keys and tools made from steel can be bought online in Poland for an equivalent price less than that of steel scrap. “This is a drama; it makes a mockery of the EU and all its regulations,” he exclaimed.
“Without the immediate extension of CBAM to products where the steel component comprises 80-90% of costs … our distributors will lose their market. If they lose their market, then we as steel mills will also lose our market,” he warned.
Henryk Orczykowski, chief executive of distributor Stalprofil, said CBAM and TRQs are “going in a very good direction”. Given the weak steel demand in Europe, “there would be drama” if the measures were not in place. The huge steel stockpiles on the continent are yet to be fully worked through but stocks are now depleting.
Prices in the EU will be the main indicator of whether these measures are working. “CBAM and TRQs are most evident in the area of hot rolled coil; prices are rising steadily because this product is the most imported,” he noted. Inventories should deplete in Q4, at the same time as steel demand should improve in Poland, driven by investments, he added.
