European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices increased in the week to 23 October, although liquidity remains limited due to weak apparent demand.
European distributors hold significant stocks of flat steel, having customs-cleared excessive volumes in June ahead of the introduction of stricter post-July quotas. As underlying demand has yet to improve, destocking is taking longer than usual.
Buyers are limiting purchasing volumes to only those needed to fill portfolio gaps, market sources said.
Despite this limited trading activity, market sentiments are bullish, as the combination of tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has made imports more costly and restrictive, pushing European steelmakers to a larger market share.
In Northwest Europe, deals for domestic HRC have been settled at EUR750-770/t ex-works. Offers for HRC for first-quarter delivery have reached EUR790-800/t delivered. Some steelmakers claimed to be sold out on HRC for first-quarter deliveries.
The region’s mills have also started to negotiate contracts for the first half of next year, and for the whole of 2027, seeking increases of EUR100-150/t compared with the latter half of 2026. Market participants believe that contracts will ultimately be settled with increases of around EUR50-80/t.
In Italy, domestic HRC prices have been reported at EUR740-750/t ex-works and EUR740-770/t delivered. A few transactions were still being concluded at lower rates, at EUR730/t delivered.
Prices for imported HRC are comparable to those offered by European mills, ranging from EUR740/t DDP at Italian ports for material already available there to EUR800/t DDP for new orders. Additionally, buyers face the risk of exceeding available quota limits and paying costly 50% duties, though Dow Jones Energy’s analysis shows that ‘effective’ duties could be lower than expected.
On a CIF basis, HRC from the Far East, India and Turkey has been offered at EUR740-750/t, including anti-dumping duties where applicable.
To tackle limited import availability, some traditional HRC importers have switched to purchases of non-EU steel slab for use as rolling feedstock for European capacities.
Green steel market
Demand for green steel coil in the spot market remains limited, with transactions largely settled for small trial volumes. Automotive companies and construction projects continue to be the main sources of demand for low-emissions steel, while most buyers remain focused on adapting to new trade restrictions and securing supplies of conventional material.
Green HRC premiums vary depending on the producer, buyer and type of contract. Premiums of around EUR200/t have been reported for project-based sales and long-term contracts, while a South European producer has indicated premiums of EUR200/t for material from its electric-arc furnace (EAF)-based plant. Spot premiums for EAF-produced green HRC are generally around EUR100/t, in line with buyers’ idea of workable premiums.
Some mills claim green steel premiums of up to EUR300/t, although confirmed levels are lower. Project-related sales have been concluded at around EUR200/t, while trial sales by other producers have been reported at approximately EUR150/t.
Distributors continue to show limited willingness to hold low-CO2 steel in stock, typically purchasing it on a back-to-back basis against confirmed end-user orders. Buyers’ indications for green steel premiums are generally around EUR100/t in the spot market, reflecting subdued demand and a cautious approach to paying extra for lower-emissions material.
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 23-Oct-26 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 760.00 | 10.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 865.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 855.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 640.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe DDP port HRC | DDP Port | 780.00 | 30.00 | ||
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 740.00 | 10.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 640.00 | 0.00 | ||
| South Europe DDP port HRC | DDP Port | 775.00 | 25.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF CRC | CIF | 720.00 | 0.00 | ||
| South Europe DDP port CRC | DDP Port | 865.00 | 25.00 | ||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2026 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 23-Oct-26 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 0.8t) | 100.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 860.00 | 10.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 under 0.5t) | 100.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 860.00 | 10.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 74.06 | 11.44 | |
Author: Benjamin Steven & Maria Tanatar
