EU apparent steel consumption is set to be almost flat this year after an import-fuelled rebound in 2025, while global excess capacity continues to drive the downsizing of the region’s steel industry, Kallanish notes from keynote speeches at this week’s Steel Networking Summit in Istanbul, organised by the Turkish Steel Exporters’ Association.
Alessandro Sciamarelli, director of economic and market research at the European Steel Association (Eurofer), said EU apparent consumption rose 4.5% year-on-year to 134.5 million tonnes in 2025, after three consecutive years of contraction. The increase was driven by exceptional factors, including a 14% jump in imports concentrated in the second half of the year, as demand previously expected in 2026 was brought forward.
As a result, the recovery originally forecast for this year has turned into near-flat growth of 0.1%. This will be followed by 2.3% growth in 2027, leaving volumes still some 7mt below pre-pandemic levels.
Steel-weighted industrial production (SWIP), the association’s measure of output in steel-using sectors, is forecast to rebound 1.5% this year and 2.5% in 2027. Construction is expected to grow in 2026 but automotive will drop further before rebounding next year.
The EU has lost 59mt of crude steel production since 2008, with output falling to a record low of 125.8mt in 2025, Sciamarelli said. He attributed the decline to weak demand from steel-using sectors, global excess capacity of over 700mt according to the OECD, and structurally higher energy and production costs than in other major steelmaking regions. EU capacity utilisation remains at below 70%.
The EU’s trade deficit in finished steel products widened to 15mt in 2025, its ninth consecutive year in deficit, and was running at an annualised 11mt based on January-August data this year. Exports have fallen by about 9mt since 2018. Imports accounted for a record 30% of apparent consumption in 2025, up from 17% in 2012, before easing to 23% in the first quarter of this year.
Mehmet Ögütcü, chairman of Global Resources Partners and a former head of the OECD’s investment department, said the steel industry could no longer be treated in isolation from geopolitics, energy, finance and decarbonisation. The resilience of supply chains now matters as much as volumes or margins, he noted.
Ögütcü warned that pushing too hard on clean energy could force some major steel producers out of the market. The transition must be “economically feasible, commercially driven and also politically possible”, he said, noting that 81% of global energy consumption still comes from fossil fuels.
Yusuf Emre Akgündüz, deputy governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, said the war in the Middle East had been the year’s largest macroeconomic issue for Türkiye, an energy importer, affecting both inflation and the current account. Inflation has stalled at around 30%, driven by energy inflation of 45%, while services, core goods and food are giving milder signals, he concluded.
Author: Burak Odabasi Türkiye
