ArcelorMittal expects higher apparent demand on-year in 2025, with restocking activity to supplement real demand improvement amid low inventory levels, especially in Europe. This comes after the firm’s shipments and revenue dropped in 2024, despite improving in the fourth quarter, Kallanish notes.
The group expressed a similar expectation at the same time last year, but restocking ultimately failed to materialise in 2024 (see Kallanish passim).
Q4 steel shipments and crude steel production each rose 2% on-year to 13.5 million tonnes and 14mt respectively. Revenue grew 1% to $14.7 billion, while net loss narrowed 87% and Ebitda grew 14% to $390 million and $1.65 billion respectively.
Steel shipments in 2024 fell, but only by 2% on-year, to 54.3mt, with crude steel production flat at 57.9mt. Revenue fell 9% to $62.4 billion and Ebitda was down 19% to $7.05 billion. However, net income surged 46% to $1.34 billion. The previous year’s earnings were impacted by the disposal of the Kazakhstan operations and impairment of the firm’s investment in the Acciaierie d’Italia joint venture.
Despite the anticipated demand improvement, global overcapacity remains an issue. “Further action is particularly necessary in Europe, which was impacted by increased imports in 2024, further adding to the pressures on European manufacturing. It is critical that we see progress in 2025 both in providing necessary emergency relief and creating a policy environment that incentivises the investment required to accelerate decarbonisation in Europe,” says ArcelorMittal chief executive Aditya Mittal.
Although 2024 was beset by economic challenges, ArcelorMittal’s $130/tonne Ebitda was still higher than the five-year-average pre-Covid. The firm is focused on tapping demand in the Brazil, India and US markets. Electric arc furnaces now comprise 25% of its global production, up from 19% in 2018.
The company expects world ex-China apparent steel consumption to grow by 2.5-3.5% on-year in 2025, with Europe and US flat products consumption to rise 0-2% and 1-3% respectively.
Adam Smith Poland
