Downstream flat steel prices in Europe steady while CBAM, AD probe limit import options

European domestic prices for cold-rolled (CRC) and hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) steel coil were stable to slightly higher in the week to Wednesday, with limited import availability, especially in the CRC sector, playing a central role in recent upward price momentum, Fastmarkets heard on Tuesday January 27.

Northern Europe
During the assessment week, producers in Germany and the Benelux area followed market leader ArcelorMittal’s move and also announced higher offer prices for second-quarter delivery CRC and HDG.

In the week to January 23, ArcelorMittal came to the market with higher offers for hot-rolled, cold-rolled and hot-dipped galvanized coil. New offers for April-delivery HDG from the supplier were reported at €820 ($980) per tonne delivered (around €805 per tonne ex-works), compared with €780 per tonne delivered for March.

A supplier in the Benelux area was hoping to get €790 per tonne ex-works for HDG and €795 per tonne ex-works for CRC.

In Germany, offers were reported at €790-810 per tonne delivered (€775-795 per tonne ex-works) for both CRC and HDG, depending on supplier.

Integrated suppliers in Northern Europe had no CRC and HDG availability for first-quarter delivery, market sources said.

New offers were not yet accepted, but buyer sources overall agreed that increases were “inevitable,” considering the lack of new imports because of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Buyers in Germany and the Benelux area estimated workable prices for CRC no higher than €750-770 per tonne ex-works during the week to January 28, and €750-760 per tonne for HDG.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €750-770 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €10 per tonne from €740-760 per tonne the previous week.

The weekly price assessment for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €750-770 per tonne on Wednesday, stable week-on-week.

Southern Europe
In Italy, meanwhile, local suppliers managed to achieve €780 per tonne delivered (€765-770 per tonne ex-works) for April CRC volumes. But several sources claimed that €780 per tonne ex-works had already been agreed in deals and that suppliers were hoping for “more than €800 per tonne delivered” for the second quarter.

“In the CRC sector, we have a lack of supply. New imports are a complete disaster because of CBAM, and domestically we only have [one re-roller],” a buyer in Italy said.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, domestic, exw Southern Europe, was €770-780 per tonne on Wednesday, stable week-on-week.

Meanwhile, the weekly price assessment for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil, domestic, exw Southern Europe, was €760-780 per tonne on Wednesday, also stable week-on-week.

Offers of galvanized coil in the region were reported around €790-805 per tonne ex-works, depending on supplier, while achievable prices were estimated at €750-780 per tonne by buyers in Italy, Spain and Portugal.

Despite buyers’ resistance to price rises, sentiment was largely positive, with CBAM expected to further curb new imports, supporting domestic prices.

Imports
Market sources said that new import offers of CRC and HDG were extremely scarce, due to CBAM’s effects and also the continuing anti-dumping (AD) probe against CRC originating in India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam.

“There is a very limited pool of [CRC] suppliers left outside of the AD [investigation] – South Korea, Brazil, Thailand. But then we have CBAM costs for everyone, so it’s still challenging to negotiate the price,” a buyer in Italy said.

Several sector sources said that they were even considering booking CRC from Japan, despite an AD probe, and China, which is already a subject to AD duties for CRC. But long lead times were another concern.

“There are concerns that CRC from Asia might arrive too late – end of second quarter or early third quarter 2026 – and we are still lacking clarity on how quotas will be distributed under the new safeguards regime. It’s all very risky,” a second buyer said.

And CRC offers from South Korea was heard at €750-760 per tonne DDP in Spain and Italy earlier in January – CBAM costs included – but during the assessment week marker sources reported no new offers and said that these tonnages were sold out.

Buyers estimated achievable prices for imported CRC at €720-730 per tonne DDP in Southern Europe.

To manage unpredictable CBAM costs, European buyers have been opting for import bookings on a DDP basis recently. Trading houses in Europe were offering imported coil partially or fully accounted for CBAM costs on a DDP basis, but deals were still scarce.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, import, ddp Southern Europe, was €720-750 per tonne on Wednesday, stable week-on-week.

The weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, import, ddp Northern Europe, was €720-750 per tonne on the same day, also unchanged week-on-week.

On a CFR basis, no new CRC offers were heard during the assessment week.

For HDG, trade sources reported a transaction for Vietnamese material, 0.5mm, zinc coating z100, at €700 per tonne CFR to Antwerp, for a minor tonnage, excluding CBAM costs.

Market sources estimated that, with CBAM costs, the price of the material would be around €780-790 per tonne DDP.

According to Fastmarkets’ CBAM calculator, costs for Vietnamese HDG, using default emissions values including 10% mark-up, would be around €91-161 per tonne, depending on carbon credits prices (Carbon EU Allowance).

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil, import, cfr main port Northern Europe, was €700-720 per tonne on Wednesday, narrowing upward from €680-720 per tonne seven days before.

Overall, new import offers for HDG material were scarce, with CBAM and tight safeguard quotas keeping trading extremely quiet.

Author: Julia Bolotova

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