EU HRC producers struggle to fill Q4 order books; buyers cautious, sitting on high stocks

European hot-rolled coils prices were broadly unmoved on Tuesday September 30, with suppliers facing challenges in filling fourth-quarter order books amid subdued demand. A proposal for new steel trade measures to replace existing safeguards is expected in early October, sources told Fastmarkets.
November-December delivery HRC was on offer at €590-610 per tonne ex-works from integrated mills in Northern Europe. But sources pointed out that local suppliers were not actively pursuing higher offers for fourth quarter delivery HRC.

“[HRC] offers at €600 [per tonne ex-works] and higher are of the table at the moment. Buyers did not accept,” a steel-service center in the region said.

“Buyers still have sufficient stocks – they booked more coil domestically and overseas in the third quarter, amid bullish moods and CBAM/safeguards concerns,” a mill source said.

The European Commission is expected to publish a legal proposal on new trade measures to replace existing safeguards on October 7, so in line with the previously indicated timeline, several sources familiar with the matter told Fastmarkets.

Achievable prices were reported by buyers in Germany and Benelux area at €570-580 per tonne ex-works.

One German buyer said, that for big volumes [5,000 tonnes and above] it would be possible to negotiate prices below €570 per tonne ex-wokrs, “but nobody was looking to buy big lot [of HRC].”

“Mills have empty order books for December, while buyers don’t need tonnages,” a German buyer said.

Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €577.50 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €0.42 per tonne from €577.92 per tonne on Monday September 29.

The Northern European index was down by €1.25 per tonne week on week and down by €0.83 per tonne month on month.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €550.00 per tonne ex-works on Tuesday, down by €0.63 per tonne from €550,63 per tonne on Monday.

The Italian index was up by €1.25 per tonne week on week and up by €8.33 per tonne month on month.

Trading remained slow in Italian market, and local participants estimated achievable prices for HRC in the nation at €540-550 per tonn ex-works. One source claimed that for large tonnages mills were ready to step down to €530 per tone ex-works.

Official offers were hoovering at around €570 per tonne ex-works, but no sales at such levels were reported.

Overall sources expressed doubts about possibility of uptrend in the upcoming weeks.

“Mills need to sell November, December production, while buyers are not really desperate for volumes,” a local buyer said.

“We will see what quotas look like in October [Q4 allocations open on October 1], calculate inventories and see what needs to be booked,” they added.

Offers for overseas coil were stable on Tuesday. HRC from Turkey was available at around €520-530 per tonne CFR, including the EU anti-dumping duty, for December arrival.

From India, offers were reported at €520-530 per tonne CFR for November-shipment coil.

The lowest offers were reported from Indonesia at €490-500 per tonne CFR. Several sources noted there was a room for  €10-15 per tonne discount for a large volumes.

Julia Bolotova

fastmarkets.com