The new proposed changes to the safeguard system published in a note sent to the World Trade Organisation by the European Commission last week will mainly limit sales of Turkish and Indian HRC, Kallanish notes.
According to the new rules, HRC quotas will now be calculated quarterly and the largest importers will be assigned a specific country allocation. As a result volumes for Turkish and Indian suppliers will be impacted significantly.
Turkey will be able to sell slightly less than 350,000t of HRC each quarter into the European Union. In 2019 the country sold over 230,000t/month of HRC in Europe on average, according to Eurofer data. While the reduction in sales from Turkey was already visible during the first part of 2020, the new rules, together with the ongoing investigation on possible AD duties will significantly impact trade.
India, on the other hand, will receive from the beginning of July a tariff-free quota of slightly less than 170,000t each quarter. Last year the country sold to Europe around 70,000t/m of HRC.
Meanwhile Russia will slightly benefit from the changes proposed, as it will become the country with the largest tariff-free quota allocation for the period July 2020-June 2021. Russian suppliers will be able to sell to Europe over 410,000t each quarter. In 2019 the country sold on average 115,000t/m of HRC, being the second largest supplier to the EU despite being subject to AD duties.